美中应联手遏制朝鲜

As he was leaving the Oval Office, Barack Obama warned Donald Trump that nuclear-armed North Korea would be his most immediate foreign policy challenge. That looked prescient on Monday, when Pyongyang fired five ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan.

巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)在离开白宫之际警告唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)，拥有核武器的朝鲜将是他面临的迫在眉睫的外交政策挑战。本周一，当朝鲜向日本海发射了5枚弹道导弹的时候，这个警告看起来具有先见之明。

North Korea is a country with bad cards, which it plays well. For decades, it has terrorised its neighbours and their allies into negotiations and concessions, while continuing to act with bad faith and impunity. Mr Trump’s most visible response so far has been a tweet casting aspersions on the dictatorship’s military capabilities. One hopeful sign, however, is that the US president seems to understand that China is the key to reining in this recalcitrant Stalinist dynasty.

朝鲜是一个擅长打好一手坏牌的国家，几十年来，它威胁邻国及其盟友，迫使它们与其展开谈判并做出让步，而自己在不受惩罚的情况下继续背信弃义。特朗普迄今最公开的回应是在Twitter上讽刺朝鲜的军事能力。然而，一个有希望的迹象是，美国总统似乎明白，中国是遏制这个桀骜难驯的斯大林主义王朝的关键。

North Korea has been a Chinese client state for decades, but Beijing is struggling to restrain the regime. This week’s launches were timed to coincide with the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, sending a message to Beijing that the youthful dictator Kim Jong Un is unhappy with his main benefactor.

朝鲜几十年来一直是中国的附庸国，但北京方面很难约束平壤政权。本周朝鲜发射导弹，在时间安排上与中国的橡皮图章议会的年度会议凑热闹，此举向北京方面传递的信息是，年轻的独裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)对其主要恩主感到不满。

Beijing’s patience is wearing thin. After years of prevarication it has blocked imports of North Korean coal for the rest of this year, prompting a rare outburst of anti-Chinese rhetoric in North Korean state media.

北京方面的耐心逐渐耗尽。在多年推诿搪塞之后，中国在今年剩余时间不再从朝鲜进口煤炭，这促使朝鲜官方媒体出现了罕见的反华言论。

China’s leaders must do more to contain Pyongyang. The latest missile tests have only strengthened the rationale behind Seoul’s decision to deploy a US-built and US-operated missile shield in its territory. This is a decision that has angered China, which argues that the system’s radar will see deep into Chinese territory and will shift the strategic balance in the region. Beijing has responded by introducing undeclared economic sanctions against South Korea and its companies, many of which rely heavily on the Chinese market for their profits. These actions may contravene World Trade Organization rules, and have been ineffective in any case. China’s leaders should know better: what country, faced with the possibility of annihilation, would choose short-term economic gain over the strongest defence it can muster?

中国领导人必须采取更多措施遏制朝鲜。最新的导弹试射只会让韩国更有理由决定在其领土部署美国制造和美国操作的反导弹系统。这一决定激怒了中国，后者辩称，这种反导弹系统的雷达将会侦察到中国境内纵深地带的情况，从而改变地区战略平衡。北京方面不公开地对韩国及其公司展开了经济制裁——许多韩国公司的盈利严重依赖中国市场。这些举措可能违反了世贸组织(WTO)规则，而且不管怎样都是无效的。中国领导人应该明白：哪个国家会在面临覆灭危险的情况下，把短期经济利益置于其能找到的最强大防御手段之上？

Beijing should focus its attention on the source of the problem — the regime next door, which builds nuclear weapons while much of its population languishes near starvation. China cannot, however, deliver a solution to the North Korea problem alone. It needs help, principally from the US.

北京方面应该聚焦于问题源头，即制造核武器却让大量民众挨饿的朝鲜政权。然而，中国不可能单独拿出朝鲜问题的解决方案。它需要帮助，尤其是来自美国的帮助。

Pyongyang has a history of acting most belligerently when it is preparing to negotiate. Mr Trump has said he would consider a meeting with Mr Kim. In South Korea, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye is likely to lead to a government that is more willing to sit down with its counterparts from the north. Offering a meeting is the strongest card Washington and Seoul have, though. It must not be played ahead of dramatic changes in the regime’s behaviour. The prospect of such a meeting — and, beyond that, a commitment to keep regime change off the agenda — might entice North Korea to stop its tests and launches, if it is combined with further economic pressure of the sort only China can apply.

平壤方面曾经多次在准备谈判时大肆挑衅。特朗普表示，他将考虑与金正恩会晤。在韩国，对总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)的弹劾可能导致一个更愿意坐下来与朝鲜谈判的政府上台。然而，提供谈判机会是华盛顿和首尔拥有的最为有力的牌。它不能在朝鲜戏剧性改变行为之前打出。此类谈判——以及在更深入阶段承诺不谋求改变朝鲜政权——的前景，如果能够结合只有中国才能施加的那种进一步的经济压力，可能促使朝鲜不再进行核试验和导弹试射。

Any tacit understanding reached between North Korea and the international community, and any official talks and agreements that follow, must be vigilantly monitored. After the agreed nuclear framework was signed in 1994, North Korea broke its commitments. Unchecked, it will do so again. All the same, action is needed now. The long-term goal can only be a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. The first step is de-escalating the acutely dangerous current situation before it turns into an armed conflict.

必须严格监督朝鲜与国际社会达成的默契以及随后的官方谈判和协议。在1994年签署商定的核协议框架后，朝鲜背弃了其承诺。如果对此放任不管，朝鲜还会再次这么做。尽管如此，现在有必要采取行动。长期目标只能是让朝鲜半岛无核化。第一步是缓和当前的危急局势，以免其演变为武装冲突。