俄企业依赖中国贷款 美国制裁效果待观察

MOSCOW — With the latest round of sanctions against Russia, the United States Treasury Department said it had “increased the cost of economic isolation for key Russian firms,” like the state oil company Rosneft and the banking arm of the natural gas giant Gazprom.

莫斯科——随着针对俄罗斯的最新一轮制裁出炉，美国财政部表示，此举已“提高了俄罗斯关键企业经济孤立的代价”。这些企业包括：国有油企俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft，简称俄油），以及天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom，简称俄气）旗下的银行。

The isolation, though, does not extend to the companies’ growing reliance on Chinese lending, a trend in the Russian natural resources industry that will blunt the effect of sanctions aimed at the finances of Russian oil companies.

不过，这种孤立并未触及这些企业对中国贷款越来越深的依赖。在俄罗斯自然资源行业中出现的这一趋势，将削弱针对该国油气企业融资能力的制裁的效力。

Energy companies form the backbone of the Russian economy. If oil and gas are taken together, they export more energy than Saudi Arabia, and that money props up the military of President Vladimir V. Putin. Rosneft is the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, pumping about 4.1 million barrels daily.

能源企业构成了俄罗斯经济的中流砥柱。该国油气合计的能源出口量超越了沙特阿拉伯，而由此带来的收入支撑了总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的军力。俄油是世界上最大的上市油企，日产量约为410万桶。

Given the gigantic outlays for drilling wells and building pipelines in the Siberian wilderness, such companies rely deeply on cheap sources of capital. The Chinese have been willing to oblige.

考虑到在西伯利亚荒野之中钻井及铺设管线的巨额成本，这些企业严重依赖廉价的资金来源。在这方面，中国人一直乐于配合。

“We absolutely don’t expect any impact on the operations or finances of Rosneft or Novatek,” another Russian energy company hit with sanctions on Wednesday, said Pavel Kushnir, an oil and gas analyst at Deutsche Bank in Russia.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻俄罗斯油气分析师帕维尔·库什尼尔(Pavel Kushnir)表示，“我们认为，俄油或诺瓦泰克(Novatek)的运营和融资绝不会受到任何影响。”诺瓦泰克是周三列入制裁名单的又一家俄罗斯能源企业。

“There is a possibility the Chinese banks will try to increase the cost of financing to take advantage of the situation, but this is just speculation,” he said. “I think it will have no impact.”

“有一种可能性是，中国的银行会利用当前局势来试图抬升融资成本，不过这只是猜测而已，”他说。“我想，不会有任何影响。”

The sanctions were so narrowly focused that some financial analysts in Moscow saw them as largely symbolic. The broader significance, they say, was mostly an implied threat of broader measures to come, should the crisis drag on.

制裁措施针对的范畴十分有限，因此莫斯科的一些分析人士认为，它们在很大程度上是象征性的。他们表示，更大的意义基本在于，发出隐含的威胁信号：倘若危机拖延下去，更多制裁将接踵而至。

“What is most important is the sentiment,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist with BCS Financial Group, a Moscow brokerage firm. “If the situation doesn’t improve around Ukraine, which doesn’t seem very likely, there could be another sanction. That will affect risk premium around all new debt issues.”

“最重要的是市场情绪，”莫斯科经纪公司BCS金融集团(BCS Financial Group)的首席经济师弗拉基米尔·蒂霍米罗夫(Vladimir Tikhomirov)说。“如果乌克兰局势没有改善——似乎不太可能——就还会有新的制裁。那样就会影响到与所有新债务问题有关的风险溢价。”

The third round of sanctions did cross a new line by focusing on large publicly traded enterprises in major sectors of the Russian economy. The latest measures prohibit American banks and investors from proffering loans with a maturation of more than 90 days to four Russian companies — Rosneft, Novatek, Gazprombank and VEB, the state foreign trade bank.

第三轮制裁的确有所突破，针对的是俄罗斯主要经济部门的大型上市企业。这些最新的制裁措施规定，禁止美国银行及投资者向四家俄罗斯公司提供期限超过90天的贷款。这四家企业分别是：俄油、诺瓦泰克、俄罗斯天然气工业银行(Gazprombank)，以及该国的对外经贸银行——开发与外经银行(VEB)。

The move weighed broadly on Russian stocks. Shares in Rosneft were down 4.3 percent. The Russian Micex, which had climbed back from its losses after the first round of sanctions in March, was off 2.6 percent.

此举重创了俄罗斯股市。俄油的股价下跌了4.3%。俄罗斯Micex指数本已从首轮制裁后的低谷恢复元气，但此次下挫了2.6%。

And the fallout could prove substantial for some on the new list. Among the eight military industrial companies banned from doing business with Americans was the Kalashnikov Concern, the maker of AK assault rifles and their civilian variants, called Saigas, which are popular in the United States. In recent years, about 30 percent of the factory’s output has been sold in the United States, the world’s largest civilian gun market.

对新制裁名单上的一些公司而言，后果可能会相当严重。在禁止与美国进行业务来往的八家军工企业中，就有卡拉什尼科夫集团(Kalashnikov Concern)。该公司是AK突击步枪及其民用版本赛加(Saiga)的生产商。后者在美国市场上颇受欢迎。近些年来，公司产量的30%左右销往美国这一世界第一大的民用枪支市场。

The Kalashnikov factory’s parent company, Rostec, issued a statement lamenting the sanctions’ “negative effect on cooperation between a number of Russian and American companies, and threat to tear apart the common trust.”

卡拉什尼科夫集团的母公司俄罗斯技术集团公司(Rostec)发表声明，抱怨制裁“对多家俄罗斯与美国企业之间的合作造成负面影响，并可能撕裂双方的互信”。

While the latest sanctions are not likely to inflict deep pain, Rosneft and other Russian energy companies may have to get more creative about their financing needs. China, for one, has proved a good source of funds in the past.

尽管最新一轮的制裁不太可能造成巨大的痛苦，但俄油等俄罗斯能源企业或许不得不在满足自身的融资需求上更富创意。比如，中国过去已证明是个不错的资金来源地。

Rosneft has repeatedly turned to Chinese lending during periods of tension with the West including taking a $6 billion loan from the Chinese in 2005 to buy Yukos assets. At the end of the first quarter this year, Rosneft reported $41 billion in commercial debt owed to mostly Western banks and $25 billion in funds received as prepayment for future oil deliveries, of which analysts estimate about $20 billion is Chinese financing.

在与西方关系紧张的时期，俄油曾反复转向中国借贷。比如2005年，俄油从中国贷款60亿美元（当时约合490亿元人民币），来收购尤科斯石油公司(Yukos)的资产。今年第一季度末，俄油通报欠有410亿美元（约合2540亿元人民币）的商业债务，债主多数为西方银行，另有250亿美元为石油预付款。分析人士估计，其中约有200亿美元是来自中国的融资。

Rosneft has not disclosed details of the Chinese prepayment agreement, or its upper limit. But Mr. Kushnir, the Deutsche Bank analyst, noted that last fall Rosneft retired some Western bank debt with prepayment funds most likely from Chinese sources, suggesting the terms are at least competitive with commercial loans.

俄油没有披露与中国之间的预付款协议的细节，或是其金额上限。不过，德意志银行的分析师库什尼指出，去年秋季，俄油用预付款偿还了欠西方银行的部分债务，而这些预付款很可能来自中国。这表明，预付款的条件至少与商贷差不多优惠。

During a state visit of Mr. Putin to China in May, Novatek, the other energy company placed under sanctions on Wednesday, secured Chinese financing to build a liquefied natural gas plant at Sabetta on the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic Ocean, intended to supply Asian markets by crossing thawing Arctic shipping lanes. During that visit, Gazprom also negotiated a prepayment for future sales to China.

普京今年5月对中国进行了国事访问，期间诺瓦泰克与中方达成协议，将利用其资金在北冰洋亚马尔半岛的萨贝尔港建造一座液化天然气工厂。这座工厂意在利用北冰洋逐渐融化的货运航线来向亚洲市场供气。本周三，诺瓦泰克成为被列入制裁名单的又一家能源企业。在普京的那次访问期间，俄气也与中国谈成了一项未来供气的预付款协议。

If sanctions widen, though, Rosneft and others may find their position more challenging.

然而，假如制裁进一步扩大，俄油等企业或许会发现自身的处境愈发艰难。

Rosneft, Mr. Tikhomirov said, will inevitably pay higher rates if European banks follow the cue from the United States and the company is eventually cut off from the dollar bond market, the most liquid globally.

蒂霍米罗夫认为，倘若欧洲的银行按美国的指示行事，俄油又最终被全球流动性最强的美元债券市场排除在外，它就不可避免地要付出更高的利息。

That could complicate a number of Rosneft’s major projects in the works, like plans to drill in the Arctic, and to buy Morgan Stanley’s oil unit. “It will have to manage its balance by either cutting costs, or deciding not to pursue projects,” Mr. Tikhomirov said.

那样的话，可能会让俄油正在进行的多个大型项目复杂化，包括在北冰洋钻探和收购摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)石油部门的计划。“俄油将不得不保障自身的收支平衡，要么削减成本，要么做出停止项目的决定，”蒂霍米罗夫说。