玄永哲事件背后的朝鲜政治趋势

When North Korea’s leading girl group took to a Pyongyang stage late last month to entertain a beige-clad military audience with such patriotic numbers as “I Like My Country the Most”, the guest of honour was the defence minister, Hyon Yong Chol.

上个月末，当朝鲜顶尖女子乐团在平壤为身着军装的部队官兵登台献艺，演唱《光辉的祖国》等爱国歌曲时，朝鲜人民武力部部长玄永哲(Hyon Yong Chol)正是台下的贵宾。

Within three days Hyon was dead, according to South Korean spies, executed with an anti-aircraft gun for such acts of disrespect as falling asleep during a speech by supreme leader Kim Jong Un.

据韩国情报机构表示，不到3天玄永哲就死了，他因为在朝鲜最高领袖金正恩讲话时打瞌睡等不敬行为而被高射炮处决。

Such a rapid downfall would be far from unprecedented under Mr Kim, who has undertaken what appears to be the most sweeping purge of top North Korean officials for decades.

如此迅速的落马，在金正恩统治下的朝鲜算不上史无前例，金正恩对朝鲜高层官员进行了一场似乎是几十年来最大规模的清洗。

But the fact that references to Hyon’s activities can still be seen on state media has sparked scepticism from some analysts, highlighting the huge difficulty in assessing the opaque political situation in North Korea as Mr Kim seeks to consolidate his grip on power.

但是，玄永哲出席活动的报道仍然出现在朝鲜国家媒体上，引起了一些分析人士的怀疑，这也凸显了对朝鲜不透明的政治局面实施评估的难度，尤其此时金正恩正在寻求巩固权力之际。

The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper’s last mention of Hyon — of his presence at the Moranbong Band concert — was published on April 30. That casts doubt over the South Korean National Intelligence Service’s claim that he was executed no later than that date, according to Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think-tank.

朝鲜官方报纸《劳动新闻》(Rodong Sinmun)最后一次提到玄永哲的那一期出版于4月30日——他出席观看牡丹峰乐团(Moranbong Band)演出。韩国智库机构世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)的研究员郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示，这使人们对韩国国家情报院（South Korean National Intelligence Service，简称NIS）声称玄永哲被处决的日期不晚于那天的说法产生怀疑。

State news websites still show stories mentioning Hyon, who also appeared briefly in a film about Kim Jong Un that was shown on state television every day for a week from last Tuesday.

朝鲜国家新闻网站仍然显示着有玄永哲的报道，在朝鲜国家电视台自上周二开始每天播放的一部关于金正恩的影片中，他也有短暂露面。

“When someone is purged in North Korea, he is no longer mentioned in North Korean media and his records are erased in official documents,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Seoul’s Dongguk University. “We should wait and see to verify the NIS’s claim.”

“在朝鲜，当某个人遭到清洗，他就不再被朝鲜媒体提及，其在官方文件中的记录也会被抹去，”首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)称，“我们应该等待进一步的消息来核实NIS的说法。”

The NIS has given no details of how it acquires information on the North Korean political scene

NIS并未给出它如何获得朝鲜政坛情报的具体细节。

But few question the notion that Mr Kim is presiding over extraordinary churn in the senior ranks of the state. Probably still in his late twenties when he took charge in December 2011, he lacked the long years of preparation for power enjoyed by his father, and had to assert his authority over a cadre of much older senior military figures.

但是，没有多少人质疑金正恩正对朝鲜高层进行异常洗牌的说法。2011年12月上台时，金正恩或许还不到30岁，他不像他父亲那样，在掌权前有多年的准备时间，他不得不在一批年龄比他大得多的军队资深人物面前确立权威。

After seven months Mr Kim replaced Ri Yong Ho, a top officer analysts believed had been assigned by Kim Jong Il to mentor his son during his first days in power. Within two years of taking office, Mr Kim had replaced about half the country’s top 218 officials, according to the NIS.

7个月之后，金正恩撤掉了李英浩(Ri Yong-­ho)，后者被分析人士认为是金正日(Kim Jong Il)安排在其子执政初期进行辅佐的顶级军官。据NIS消息，金正恩上台不到两年，朝鲜218名顶级官员就有约一半遭到撤换。

The most prominent casualty was Jang Song Thaek, Mr Kim’s top adviser and uncle by marriage, who was executed in December 2013 for alleged offences including plotting a coup. Jang’s downfall was reported by the NIS before it was announced by Pyongyang, bolstering the perceived credibility of the agency’s claims of a recent uptick in executions of senior officials.

落马高层中最著名的是金正恩的姑父、头号辅政张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)。张成泽因策划政变等指控于2013年12月被处决。在平壤方面宣布这个消息之前，NIS就通报了张成泽的落马，这支撑了该机构消息的可信度，该机构声称最近朝鲜高级官员被处决事件有所增加。

Forty-one were put to death in 2014 and 15 so far this year, the NIS told lawmakers last month, for such offences as questioning Mr Kim’s decision on a new building’s design. The allegation that anti-aircraft fire was used to kill Hyon follows a report last month by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, which said satellite photography suggested the use of such weapons in a group execution last October.

NIS上月告诉立法者，2014年有41名朝鲜高官遭处决，今年到目前为止已有15人遭处决，罪名包括质疑金正恩对一座新大楼设计的决定等。在朝鲜用高射炮处决玄永哲的说法传出之前，美国非政府组织朝鲜人权委员会(Committee for Human Rights in North Korea)上月发布一份报告称，卫星照片显示朝鲜在去年10月曾使用这类武器实施了一次集体处决。

The apparent growing bloodshed suggests to some observers that Mr Kim is struggling to maintain the loyalty of key lieutenants.

一些观察家认为，被处决官员看上去在增多，这表明金正恩很难维持关键副手的忠诚。

“If Hyon was really purged, it means Kim Jong Un is cornered, and the high-level officials have turned their back to him,” says Kang Myung-do, who worked for Pyongyang’s defence ministry before fleeing to the South, where he teaches at Kyungmin University.

“如果玄永哲真的遭到整肃，这意味着金正恩已被逼至绝境，高级别官员已不再支持他，”曾在朝鲜人民武力部任职，后逃往韩国并在韩国庆旼大学(Kyungmin University)任教的姜明道（Kang Myung-do，音译）说。

But others argue that the leader appears to have pared the power of the military elite, directing increasing authority to civilian officials such as Hwang Pyong So, who rose through the influential Organisation and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers’ party. Mr Hwang became vice-marshal last year and his prominent coverage in state media suggests he is established as Mr Kim’s most senior official.

但其他人认为，金正恩似乎已经削弱军队精英的权力，将越来越多的权威赋予黄炳誓(Hwang Pyong So)等文职官员。黄炳誓晋升前，在颇具权势的朝鲜劳动党(Korean Workers' Party)组织指导部(Organisation and Guidance Department)任职。去年黄炳誓被授予次帅军衔，他在朝鲜官方媒体的报道中占据显眼位置，表明他已被确立为金正恩手下的最高级官员。

“The frequent reshuffling shows he is in full control,” says Chung Young-tae, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “Now that the North Korean economy has become slightly better than before, he is trying to strengthen the Communist party’s role to guard against the military.”

“频繁的洗牌表明他对局面有完全的掌控， ”韩国统一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)研究员郑永泰(Chung Young-tae)表示，“现在朝鲜经济比过去略微好一些，他正试图加强共产党的地位，以防范军方。”

Most analysts still perceive North Korea’s military as an important political force, however, and Mr Kim has left little scope for accusations he is soft on defence, despite the focus on boosting living standards and the national economy in his public pronouncements.

然而，大多数分析人士依然将朝鲜军方视为一只重要的政治力量。尽管金正恩的公开讲话着重强调提高生活水平和改善国民经济，但他并未给外界留下多少可以指责他在国防上表现软弱的话柄。

Chinese experts believe North Korea is producing nuclear weapons at a rapid pace: they think it had up to 20 at the end of last year, and could double that by the end of next year, according to Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist briefed on their findings.

核科学家西格弗里德•黑克尔(Siegfried Hecker)根据中国专家的调查称，中国专家相信朝鲜正迅速生产核武器：他们认为朝鲜在去年年底就拥有至多20枚核武，在明年年底这个数字可能会翻一番。

Last Saturday Pyongyang released footage that purported to show Mr Kim enthusiastically observing the launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine. While this would increase the potential nuclear threat from North Korea, the footage won a sceptical response from analysts such as Joseph Bermudez of AllSource Analysis, who said the rocket was more likely to have been launched from a submerged barge.

上周六，平壤方面公开了一段录像。该录像号称显示的是，金正恩正满怀热情地观看潜艇发射一枚弹道导弹。该录像本应提升朝鲜的潜在核威胁，但AllSource Analysis的约瑟夫•贝穆德斯(Joseph Bermudez)等分析师对该录像的真实性表示怀疑，称该导弹更有可能是从一艘沉入水中的驳船上发射出来的。

Whatever the level of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities, such grandstanding by Mr Kim is an important part of his efforts to keep domestic control, says Mr Koh.

不管朝鲜的核能力水平有多高，金正恩的这种大肆张扬是其保持对国内控制努力的一部分，高有焕教授说。

“He is trying to prevent internal resistance by heightening tension externally and through fear politics at home,” says Mr Koh. “But this erratic rule cannot last for a long time. He will likely become more conciliatory once his power base becomes solid.”

“他试图通过加剧外部紧张局势和国内的恐惧政治来防止内部反抗，”高教授表示，“但这种反复无常的统治无法长久。在夯实权力基础后，他可能会变得更为温和。”