朝鲜政治清洗 如在钢丝上行走

Kim Jong Un's purging of Jang Song Thaek-his uncle and North Korea's de facto No. 2-is being widely described as a power-consolidation move by the young dictator.

外界普遍认为，朝鲜年轻的独裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)拿掉他的姑父、朝鲜政坛二号人物张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)是他为巩固政权而采取的一个行动。

But it could end up weakening Mr. Kim instead, North Korea watchers say, by disturbing the balance between two major power centers: the military and the more economically minded politicos in the ruling Worker's Party of Korea. That, in turn, could trigger more instability and more bellicose behavior from Pyongyang.

但朝鲜观察人士说，如果此举打破了朝鲜两大权力中心的平衡，即军方与执政党朝鲜劳动党(Worker's Party of Korea)内部更关心经济问题的一派之间的平衡，最终反而会削弱金正恩的统治，并可能引发朝鲜方面进一步的动荡和好战举动。

While Mr. Jang, whose ouster was confirmed by North Korea on Monday, had positions of power in both the military and the party, he was more commonly associated with the party. His purging, some analysts say, may reflect a desire by Mr. Kim to hack at the party in the same way he already has at the military. Last year Mr. Kim removed Ri Yong-ho as chief of the general staff of the Korean People's Army, and since then he has cycled through three top generals.

朝鲜周一证实了张成泽被革职的消息。虽然张成泽在军方和党内均有职务，但他与朝鲜劳动党联系更多。一些分析人士说，张成泽被清洗，可能是金正恩迫切希望用整军的办法整党的一个信号。金正恩去年解除了李英浩(Ri Yong Ho)的朝鲜人民军总参谋长职务，并接连撤换了三位高级将领。

Playing competing factions in the regime against one another was a ruling method practiced by his father, Kim Jong Il, and grandfather, Kim Il Sung.

建立派系间的平衡是金正恩的父亲金正日(Kim Jong Il)和他的祖父金日成(Kim Il Sung)惯用的统治手段。

'Kim Jong Un learned at the knee of the master,' says Bruce Klingner, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who's now senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

前美国情报分析人员、现任美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)东北亚资深研究员的Bruce Klingner说，金正恩是有家学渊源的。

'By taking out Jang, it shows that Kim Jong Un is willing to go against the second-most-powerful man in North Korea and to go against a senior party official, not just a senior military official,' he said.

Klingner表示，清洗张成泽说明金正恩愿意铲除这个朝鲜政坛上的二号实权人物和这位党内高层官员，而不仅仅是一位军队高级将领。

If it's true that Mr. Kim is trying to play the military and the party against each other, analysts cautioned that it will require a delicate tightrope walk.

分析人士表示，倘若金正恩的确是在寻求军方与执政党的平衡，那么他需要极为小心。

It will also turn a spotlight on Choe Ryong Hae, the 63-year-old protégé of Mr. Jang who is now perhaps the most prominent remaining leader under Mr. Kim. Mr. Choe had virtually no visibility outside North Korea until April 2012, when he was suddenly elevated to the upper echelons of North Korea's political and military establishment.

张成泽的落马也使外界的关注焦点转向63岁的崔龙海(Choe Ryong Hae)，他现在可能是金正恩政权中所剩的最有影响力的领导人。他在2012年4月突然被提拔进入朝鲜的政治和军事高层，而在此之前几乎没有被海外关注过。

Though Mr. Choe's military credentials are rather thin, North Korean media often shows him in uniform. His travels around the country and his high-profile diplomatic trips to China-once duties of Mr. Jang-are closely tracked by Pyongyang's newspapers.

崔龙海的军方资历甚浅，但朝鲜媒体常常播放他身穿军装的画面。当他视察全国并高调出访中国时（访华本来是张成泽的分内事），平壤的报纸进行了密切的追踪报道。

In a sense, Mr. Kim has already tipped the importance of juggling civilian and military powers. Shortly after ascending to power in Pyongyang, he pushed forward byungjin, an ideology that purports to get around the guns-or-butter debate by arguing that North Korea can simultaneously pursue economic progress and nuclear weapons, which it continues to call its 'treasured sword.'

从某种意义上讲，金正恩已经透露过平衡文职与军方势力的重要性。在接管朝鲜大权后不久，金正恩就提出了“并行发展”的战略，试图回避要枪炮还是要黄油的争论，主张朝鲜可以同时发展经济和核武器。朝鲜一直将核武器称作国家的“宝剑”。

But the difficulty of that balance troubles Scott Snyder, Washington-based director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has argued that North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons will cost the regime about $100 billion in trade by the end of the decade.

但这种平衡的难度让美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)美朝政策研究项目驻华盛顿的负责人斯奈德(Scott Snyder)感到不安。他认为，到本十年结束时，发展核武器将让朝鲜丧失约1,000亿美元的贸易机会。

Mr. Snyder also pointed in a phone interview to recent contradictions in North Korea that suggest instability and confusion-for example, the simultaneous push for tourism to bring in revenue and the 'harsh, seemingly arbitrary detention of visitors.' (Over the weekend, North Korea released 85-year-old U.S. citizen after a six-week detention.)

斯奈德还在电话采访中指出，朝鲜最近自相矛盾的表现也反映了内部的不稳定和混乱，例如，朝鲜一方面鼓励旅游业发展，希望获得更多收入，一方面又严厉、甚至可能是武断地拘押游客。（朝鲜周末释放了被拘六周的85岁美国公民。）

The mismatched policies could unsettle the regime, which Mr. Snyder argues is as opaque to insiders as it is to outsiders.

这种错位的政策可能动摇朝鲜政权，斯奈德认为，无论是朝鲜内部人士还是局外人都一样搞不懂这些政策。

'The biggest danger to the regime remains from within,' Mr. Snyder said. 'It could be that the steps that Kim Jong Un is taking are steps that are potentially corrosive, rather than consolidationist.'

斯奈德说，朝鲜政权面临的最大危险来自内部。金正恩目前采取的措施可能腐蚀其政权而不是巩固政权。

'He's governing by taking advantage of opaqueness at a time when the regime is more penetrated, and transparency is being imposed from the outside, to a greater and greater degree,' he said.

他说，金正恩实行的是恐怖统治，靠的是不透明，然而朝鲜政权已受到更多渗透，透明度也从外部得到越来越多的强化。

The repeated purges marking the early days of Mr. Kim's rule contrast starkly with the rise of his father, who took the reins of the regime in 1994 after at least a decade-long transition period. By the time Kim Jong Il stepped into the supreme leadership role, there were few high-level eliminations left to carry out, and no confusion over where power truly lay, says Victor Cha, a former U.S. official and specialist on North Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

金正恩统治初期就不断实施清洗，这与他父亲上台时的情况形成鲜明对比。金正日经历了至少10年的过渡期才于1994年掌握大权。美国前官员、华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)朝鲜问题专家Victor Cha说，金正日成为朝鲜最高领导人时，已经没有什么高层清洗需要进行了，权力的真正归属也不再有疑问。

The younger Mr. Kim's decision to remove Mr. Ri last year and Mr. Jang this year 'constitute signs of internal churn and serious infighting, not a smooth transition,' Mr. Cha says.

Cha说，金正恩在去年和今年先后铲除李英浩和张成泽，他的决定说明朝鲜政坛内部出现了纷扰动荡和严重内讧，政权的过渡并不顺利。

The danger, from a U.S. perspective, is that the regime may seek to address any lack of control with more aggressive behavior outside its boundaries, Mr. Cha says.

Cha说，从美国的角度看，眼下的危险是朝鲜可能用更激进的海外行动来转移其政权的不稳定。

'Dictatorships going through unstable to become more militant, more bellicose,' Mr. Cha says.

他说，遇到过渡不稳定的情况，独裁者往往会更加穷兵黩武。