希腊公投背后的政治游戏

ATHENS — As Friday night became Saturday morning, with sidewalk cafes still bustling in central Athens, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras abruptly appeared on national television.

雅典——当周五的夜色正在褪去，周六的晨光渐渐来临，雅典市中心的咖啡馆仍在喧闹时，希腊总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras )突然出现在国家电视台上。

Mr. Tsipras, only 40, had spent his five months in office locked in increasingly acrimonious negotiations with Greece’s creditors. Belittled by critics, and facing the prospect of default, he was under intense pressure to sign a deal.

上任五个月以来，只有40岁的齐普拉斯一直身陷希腊与其债权人之间日益紧张的债务谈判。面对批评人士的贬低和债务违约的可能，他承受着达成协议的巨大压力。

Instead, Mr. Tsipras tossed a grenade.

出人意料的是，齐普拉斯扔出了一枚手榴弹。

With much of Europe sound asleep, Mr. Tsipras stared into the camera and shattered the careful decorum of European Union diplomacy. Declaring that creditors were demanding “strict and humiliating austerity,” Mr. Tsipras announced a national referendum on July 5, so voters could decide for themselves.

此时，在欧洲大部分地区，人们还在沉睡，齐普拉斯正对镜头，打破了欧盟外交恪守的谨慎礼仪。他表示债权人要求的是“严苛而具侮辱性的紧缩政策”，并宣布希腊将在7月5日举行全民公投，让选民自己决定是否接受欧盟的提议。

“We should respond to authoritarianism and harsh austerity with democracy, calmly and decisively,” Mr. Tsipras said. “Greece, the birthplace of democracy, should send a resounding democratic message to the European and global community.”

“我们应该冷静、果断地用民主对抗威权主义和严厉的紧缩政策，”齐普拉斯说道。“希腊是民主政治的摇篮，它应该向欧洲和全球发出响亮的民主之声。”

Stunned, his fellow European leaders shut down negotiations, capped the lifeline they had been providing Greece’s banks, angrily denounced him as irresponsible and dishonest with his own people, and not so subtly suggested that Greece needed a new government if it wanted to continue drawing economic help.

欧洲其他国家的领导人十分震惊，他们关闭了与希腊的谈判通道，切断了之前一直给希腊银行提供的生死攸关的援助，愤怒地谴责齐普拉斯此举是对他的人民不负责任和不诚实，而且毫不隐讳地表示，·希腊如果想继续获得欧洲的经济援助，将需要更换新政府。

Now, with the Greek crisis posing a threat to the global economy, the sniping started dissipating somewhat on Monday, even as Greece was left coping with a shuttered banking system and new uncertainties about its future. But from Berlin to Brussels to Washington to Athens, the same question permeated discussions about Greece: What kind of game is Mr. Tsipras playing?

眼下，希腊债务危机正对全球经济形成威胁，这样的抨击在周一的时候开始有些消散，尽管希腊要独自应对崩溃的银行系统和不确定的未来。但是从柏林到布鲁塞尔，到华盛顿，再到雅典，有一个问题占据了关于希腊的所有讨论：齐普拉斯到底在玩什么游戏？

To some critics, Mr. Tsipras turned to the referendum as a last-ditch play to retain power by stoking a nationalistic response to Greece’s standoff with its creditors. To others, he was a study in ideological conviction, admired by some of his supporters but scoffed at by others, who predicted potentially disastrous consequences for his own people.

有批评者认为，齐普拉斯诉诸公投是要煽动针对希腊债务谈判僵局的极端民族主义情绪，是为保留自身权力而进行的孤注一掷。有的则认为，他是一个意识形态信念的化身，被一些支持者赞赏，同时又被另一些人嘲笑，他们预测他给希腊人民带来的后果可能是灾难性的。

But there was also a case to be made that, by accident or design, he had actually succeeded in intensifying the crisis in a way that could provide him with additional leverage should negotiations get back on track, as the United States and some European leaders urged on Monday.

但是，不管是有意还是无意，这也说明，他已经在某种程度上成功地加剧了危机，因此一旦谈判（如周一美国和一些欧洲领导人敦促的那样）回到正轨，他手上就有了更多的筹码。

Whether that is possible given the mistrust on both sides remains to be seen. For now, Mr. Tsipras’s tactic remains, if nothing else, an audacious maneuver, defining him as a rare unpredictable force among European Union leaders, while also focusing new attention on Europe’s austerity policies and highlighting the failings in the long-running Greece negotiations.

考虑到双方现在互不信任，谈判是否会恢复还有待观察。撇开别的不谈，目前看，齐普拉斯采取的策略不失为大胆的行动，让他成为欧盟领导人中一股少见的难以预测的力量，也把注意力引到了欧洲的紧缩政策上，突显出旷日持久的希腊债务谈判的诸多失败之处。

“That’s really the tragedy of all this,” said Nick Malkoutzis, a political analyst in Athens, pointing out the shortcomings among all negotiators. “There has been a massive, collective failure.”

“它的确是我们所有人造成的灾难，”雅典政治分析人士尼可·马克吉斯(Nick Malkoutzis)说道，他指出谈判各方存在的种种问题。“这是一个巨大的、集体性的失败。”

Barely five months ago, Mr. Tsipras stood in front of Athens University before thousands of cheering supporters, newly elected as prime minister, as he vowed to remake the European political order. He was the youthful, handsome leader of Greece’s radical left Syriza Party, having ridden waves of populist rage against the policies of economic austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for bailing out the country with 240 billion euros in loans, after the European economic crisis.

不到五个月前，齐普拉斯在雅典大学门前，面对成千上万支持者的欢呼，当选为新一届希腊总理，他宣誓要重整欧洲政治秩序。当时他是希腊左翼政党激进左翼联盟(Syriza)年轻、英俊的领导人，乘着一波波高涨的民粹主义情绪的而起。这些愤怒情绪的根源是希腊债权人在欧洲经济危机爆发后要求希腊实行经济紧缩政策，由此换取2400亿欧元（约合1.667万亿人民币）贷款援助。

In just a few years, Syriza had risen from the fringes to shatter Greece’s decades-old political establishment. Leftists across Europe rejoiced and predicted an electoral backlash against austerity in Spain and elsewhere. Mr. Tsipras interpreted Syriza’s election victory as a democratic mandate to roll back austerity and negotiate new terms to the country’s bailout.

在短短的几年中，激进左翼联盟已经从边缘崛起，颠覆了希腊长达数十年的原有政治版图。欧洲的左翼人士欣喜地预言，在西班牙等其他国家的选举中，将出现选民反对紧缩政策的倒戈。齐普拉斯将激进左翼联盟在选举中的胜利解读为一种终止紧缩政策，并协商该国紧急财政援助方案新条款的民主授权。

“He had delusions about how the European creditors would treat him,” said Stavros Lygeros, a political commentator in Athens, with ties to Mr. Tsipras. “He thought they would respect the Greek vote and try to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.”

“他对于欧洲债权人将如何对待他抱有幻想，”雅典的政治评论员，与齐普拉斯有联系的斯塔夫罗斯·莱吉尔罗斯(Stavros Lygeros)说。“他认为他们会尊重希腊人的投票并努力达成互利的协议。”

Any honeymoon with Europe was short-lived. Greece’s outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, alienated many European officials. The new Syriza government’s objective was a comprehensive new agreement, including debt relief, and the flexibility to run the economy as the government saw fit. The creditors — the 18 other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — blanched.

任何与欧洲的蜜月都是短暂的。希腊心直口快的财政部长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法克斯(Yanis Varoufakis)与许多欧洲官员关系疏远。新的激进左翼联盟政府的目标是一个全新的综合性协议，包括减免债务，以及以希腊政府认为适合的灵活度来维持经济运行。债权人们——其他18个欧元区国家、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织——则脸色煞白。

The compromise was an interim agreement on Feb. 20 that extended the bailout program until June 30. Mr. Varoufakis and other Syriza officials described the agreement’s language as “creative ambiguity,” suggesting that it gave the government license to begin putting its own policies into effect. But creditors had included a poison pill, withholding a delayed loan of 7.2 billion euro, or about $8.1 billion,in the bailout program. Unlocking that money became the focus of negotiations going forward, especially as Greece was rapidly going broke and staring at debt payments on the horizon.

这次妥协是2月20号达成的一项临时协议，将延长援助计划到6月30日。瓦鲁法克斯和其他激进左翼联盟官员以“有创造性的模糊”来描述协议的语言，暗示这允许政府可以开始采用自己的政策。但债权人在其中挖了一个陷阱，阻止了援助计划中72亿欧元（约合500亿元人民币）的延期贷款。解冻这笔款项成为未来协商的焦点，尤其是当希腊正快速走向破产，且又即将面临偿还贷款的时候。

In Brussels, technocratic negotiations stalled, as European officials blamed the Greeks for not presenting serious proposals.

在布鲁塞尔，因为欧洲官员指责希腊人没有认真提出方案，技术性的谈判进入了僵局。

European leaders and negotiators in Brussels bore their own pressures, as they faced voter anger over shipping billions of euros in loans to Greece. As Mr. Tsipras made regular trips to Brussels, rumors circulated that European officials saw him as a moderate and hoped he might shed some of the more radical elements of Syriza and form a new governing coalition with more centrist parties.

欧洲领导人和布鲁塞尔的协商者们有着自己的压力，因为他们面对着选民对向希腊贷款数十亿欧元的不满。随着齐普拉斯频繁出访布鲁塞尔，有关传言甚嚣尘上，称欧洲官员视其为温和派并希望他能够褪去部分激进左翼联盟激进的元素，并与更多中间党派组成一个新的联合政府。

“Cutting a bad deal is not an option for him,” said one senior Syriza government official last week, speaking only on condition of anonymity. “One problem with the negotiations was that their negotiators read him wrong. They thought he was willing to do whatever that was needed to stay in power.”

“达成一个糟糕的协议对他来说是不可接受的，”一位不愿透露姓名的激进左翼联盟高级政府官员上周说。“协商的其中一个问题是谈判者错误地解读了他。他们认为他愿意为了保留权力不惜一切代价。”

Some analysts speculate that Mr. Tsipras called the referendum to save his party, since putting the matter to voters absolves Syriza of its campaign promise not to sign such a deal. Others argue that the prime minister, like others in Syriza, are actually trying to steer Greece out of the . Lygeros, the political commentator who has known the prime minister for years, is critical of how he has handled the negotiations. But in an interview conducted last week, when it looked as if the Greek side would relent to creditor demands, Mr. Lygeros also noted that Mr. Tsipras could be pushed only so far.

一些分析人士猜测齐普拉斯通过举行公投来拯救他的政党，这样把选择权交给选民，可以为激进左翼联盟在违背了不签署此类协议的竞选承诺之后开脱。还有人称，总理和激进左翼联盟的其他人一样，正在试图引导希腊脱离欧元区。与总理有多年关系的政治评论员莱吉尔罗斯批评了他处理谈判的方式。但在上周进行的一次采访中，当希腊方面似乎愿意向债权人的要求妥协时，莱吉尔罗斯也提到齐普拉斯仅能接受到这个程度。

“For better or worse, the things he was saying when he got elected were things he genuinely believed in,” Mr. Lygeros said. “If he is cornered too tightly, he is unpredictable. He might even go to a referendum.”

“不论是好是坏，他在当选时所说的都是他所深信不疑的，”莱吉尔罗斯说。“如果他被逼得太紧，他会变得难以预测。他甚至可能会举行公投。”

Two days later, Mr. Tsipras did just that.

两天后，齐普拉斯就这么做了。