叙利亚和平掌握在美俄手中

Last week, as President Obama entertained the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner and Britain indulged in a bizarre debate about whether Hitler was a Zionist, more than 200 people were killed in a brutal bombardment of Aleppo. The breakdown of Syria’s fragile ceasefire promises yet more suffering in a five-year long war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and created millions of refugees.

上周，当美国总统奥巴马(Obama)在白宫记者协会(White House Correspondents Association)晚宴上娱乐宾客、英国沉溺于关于希特勒是否是犹太复国主义者这种匪夷所思的辩论时，超过200人在阿勒颇(Aleppo)的野蛮轰炸中遇难。叙利亚长达5年的内战造成了数十万人遇难、数百万人流离失所，如果脆弱的停火协议土崩瓦解，还会造成更多痛苦。

Yet, amid all the misery, there is hope. It is possible that this year could witness two huge and positive developments. The first would be the military defeat of the jihadis of Isis, who could lose their two major strongholds in Syria — the towns of Raqqa and Deir al-Zour. The second crucial development would be the achievement of a peace deal between the Syrian regime and the non-jihadi rebels.

尽管局势充斥着各种痛苦，但希望犹存。今年有可能出现两大积极进展。第一项进展是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)圣战分子或将遭遇军事失败，可能失去在叙利亚的两个主要据点——拉卡市(Raqqa)和代尔祖尔(Deir al-Zour)。第二项至关重要的进展是叙利亚政权和非圣战分子叛军之间或将达成和平协议。

The key to both developments is close co-operation between Washington and Moscow. Despite the obvious tensions between Russia and the United States, their views of the Syrian conflict have been converging, laying the basis for a joint approach to defeating Isis and ending the war.

取得这两项进展的关键在于华盛顿方面和莫斯科方面的密切合作。尽管俄罗斯和美国明显关系紧张，但是两国对叙利亚冲突的看法日趋一致，这为打败ISIS、结束叙利亚战争的双方联合行动奠定了基础。

The Americans have moved furthest. Rhetorically, the US is still committed to the idea that “Assad must go”, a goal first stated by President Obama back in 2011. In practice, the rise of Isis means that the Americans’ priorities in Syria have changed. Defeating the jihadist threat is now their overriding aim. To achieve that end, the Americans are prepared to tacitly ditch the goal of “regime change” in Syria — although they are still insisting, for the moment, that President Assad himself must be removed as part of a peace settlement.

美国方面做出的努力最大。口头上，美国仍然坚持“阿萨德(Assad)必须下台”的想法，该目标于2011年由奥巴马总统首次提出。而实际上，ISIS的崛起意味着美国人在叙利亚的首要任务已经变了。如今，消灭圣战分子的威胁是他们最重要的目标。为实现这一点，美国人准备默默放弃实现叙利亚“政权更迭”的目标——尽管他们目前仍然坚持称，作为和平协议的一部分，叙利亚总统阿萨德本人必须下台。

Russia’s movement is less dramatic but still important. In the early stages of their military campaign in Syria, the Russians seemed to have little interest in taking on the most radical jihadis. The Americans reckoned that only 10 to 20 per cent of Russian strikes were aimed at Isis. The rest concentrated on the other jihadi groups or the moderate opposition to the Assad regime.

俄罗斯方面的努力没那么显著，但也很重要。在叙利亚采取军事行动的早期阶段，俄罗斯人似乎对打击最激进的圣战分子没什么兴趣。美国人估计，俄罗斯在叙利亚进行的军事打击仅有10%-20%是针对ISIS的。其余行动均针对其他圣战组织或者阿萨德政权的温和反对派。

This ambiguity about the war aims of the Russians is still there. Aleppo is not held by Isis but is the current target of a brutal regime offensive backed by the Russians. Nonetheless, the Obama administration believes that, in recent months, the Russians and the Syrian government have become much more serious about attacking Isis. They point to the recapture last month of the city of Palmyra, which had been occupied by Isis.

俄罗斯人在叙利亚的战争目的仍然含糊不清。阿勒颇并非由ISIS控制，但当前却是由俄罗斯人支持的政府军野蛮攻击行动的目标。尽管如此，奥巴马政府认为，最近数月，俄罗斯政府和叙利亚政府对于打击ISIS的态度已经认真多了。他们提到，此前被ISIS占领的巴尔米拉(Palmyra)上个月已被收复。

Indeed, the US now thinks it entirely possible that the Syrian regime, backed by Russian firepower, will move to ret ake both Raqqa and Deir-al-Zour, before the end of the year. On one level, this would be a welcome development for Washington. But it would also risk looking like a humiliation for the Obama administration, which, having assembled a 62-nation “global coalition” to defeat Isis, would have to stand by and see the Assad regime and the Russians do the job for them.

的确，眼下美国认为，拥有俄罗斯火力支持的叙利亚政权完全有可能在今年年底前夺回对拉卡市和代尔祖尔的控制权。在某种程度上，此事将受到华盛顿方面的欢迎。但是，这也有可能像是对奥巴马政府的羞辱——美国为打击ISIS而组织的62国“全球联军”不得不袖手旁观，看着阿萨德政权和俄罗斯军队为他们完成这项任务。

There are two ways that the Americans might handle such a situation. The first would be to concentrate US efforts on fighting Isis in Iraq, helping the government in Baghdad to retake Mosul, the largest city held by the jihadis. The second, more controversial, idea would be to lend active support to the Syrian regime and the Russians in the fight to ret ake Raqqa.

美国可能有两种办法解决此类局势。第一种将是全力以赴打击伊拉克的ISIS，帮助巴格达政府夺回被圣战分子占据的最大城市——摩苏尔。第二种办法更具争议性，即在夺回拉卡的战斗中向叙利亚政权和俄罗斯人提供积极支持。

As things stand, it would be politically impossible for the US administration to work directly with the Assad regime and the Russians. However, if the departure of Mr Assad can be arranged, then some sort of joint military offensive against Isis involving the regime, the Russians, the Kurds and the US-led coalition might yet emerge. The Russians, it is hoped, might be willing to give up Mr Assad in return for the western recognition of their role in Syria that they have long craved.

照目前来看，美国政府直接与阿萨德政权和俄罗斯人打交道在政治上是不可能的。然而，如果可以安排阿萨德下台，那么叙利亚政权、俄罗斯人、库尔德人以及美国领导的联盟仍可能组织起某种打击ISIS的联合军事行动。外界希望，俄罗斯人可能愿意放弃阿萨德，以换取西方承认他们在叙利亚的角色——这是他们长期以来梦寐以求的。

The fate of Mr Assad is the most difficult issue facing the diplomats trying to negotiate a Syria peace settlement in Geneva. But there are also many other contradictions and tensions besetting the peace talks. The Turkish and Saudi governments do not really share the Americans’ goals in Syria. The Turks’ primary obsession is defeating the Kurds, whom the Americans regard as their most capable allies in Syria. The Saudis want to see the overthrow of the Assad regime as part of their regional struggle with Iran.

对于在日内瓦努力斡旋和平解决叙利亚问题的外交官们来说，阿萨德的命运是他们面临的最棘手的问题。但和平谈判还面临其他许多矛盾和紧张关系。土耳其和沙特政府与美国人在叙利亚的目标并非真正一致。土耳其最看重的是击败被美国人视为在叙利亚最可靠的盟友——库尔德人。沙特人则希望将推翻阿萨德政权视为与伊朗地区争斗的一部分。

It is also entirely possible that the fragile co-operation between Russia and the US in Syria could be swept to one side by other developments. Last week, there was a near confrontation between Russian and American jets over the Baltic Sea. The Nato summit in Warsaw in July could also see a further escalation of tensions between Russia and the west, as Nato presses ahead with the deployment of troops in the Baltic states and Russia stations nuclear weapons in the enclave of Kaliningrad.

俄罗斯和美国在叙利亚的脆弱合作也完全有可能因其他事态而被搁置一边。上周，俄罗斯和美国的飞机在波罗的海上空几乎发生冲突。今年7月北约(NATO)在华沙的峰会也可能让俄罗斯和西方的紧张局势进一步升级，因为北约加快推动在波罗的海国家部署军队，而俄罗斯则在加里宁格勒州飞地部署核武器。

It will be very hard for the Americans and Russians to compartmentalise their relations, co-operating in the Middle East as they confront each other in eastern Europe. Nonetheless, even at the height of the Ukraine crisis, Washington and Moscow did manage to work together on the Iran nuclear deal.

美国人和俄罗斯人将很难一码归一码地处理他们之间的关系——在东欧对峙的同时在中东展开合作。然而，即便在乌克兰危机最严重期间，华盛顿与莫斯科也的确在伊朗核协议方面成功展开过合作。

For all their rivalries and mutual mistrust, it is crucial that Russia and the US find a similar way to work together on bringing peace to Syria and defeating Isis. Without Russian-American co-operation, Syria can only expect further years of tragedy and death.

尽管俄美两国是对手而且彼此不信任，但至关重要的是，两国能够在促成叙利亚和平和打击ISIS方面以同样的方式实现合作。如果没有美俄合作，只能预计叙利亚还会经历多年的悲剧和死亡。