俄罗斯需要美国协助解决叙利亚问题

Last Friday’s US air strikes against Syria have dispelled any remaining illusions in Moscow about Donald Trump’s foreign policy .

上周五，美国对叙利亚实施的空袭打破了莫斯科方面对唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)外交政策残留的一切幻想。

The Russian reaction to the use of force by the US president was strong but measured. Moscow condemned it as an “act of aggression”, but gave no order to Russian air defence units in Syria to intercept American missiles. Nor did the Kremlin cancel the forthcoming visit by secretary of state Rex Tillerson .

俄罗斯对于这位美国总统采取武力的反应强烈但谨慎。莫斯科方面谴责称这是“侵略行为”，但并没有命令俄罗斯驻叙利亚的防空部门拦截美国导弹。克里姆林宫也没有取消美国国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)访问俄罗斯的安排。

Russian interpretations of Mr Trump’s volte face on Syria mostly focus on the domestic travails of the American president, who faces steadily ratcheting pressure over his associates’ dealings with Moscow. This is seen, in turn, as evidence of the influence of America’s “deep state”, which is inherently hostile to Russia. By reasserting US power on the global stage, the argument goes, Mr Trump has won a reprieve from his political opponents — but at the price of submitting to their foreign policy agenda.

俄罗斯对特朗普在叙利亚问题上态度大转弯的解释，主要集中在这位美国总统在国内面临的难题上——因他的同僚们与莫斯科方面的接触，特朗普正面临着不断升级的压力。这进而被视为美国“暗深势力”(deep state)影响力的证据，该势力集团对俄罗斯存在固有的敌视。该观点认为，通过重申美国在全球舞台上的实力，特朗普从政治对手那里赢得了缓刑——但却是以服从后者的外交政策议程为代价。

Ironically, by ordering direct action in Syria, Mr Trump has effectively done to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, what Mr Putin himself did to Barack Obama in September 2015 when he launched Russia’s military intervention in the Middle East. Now, both countries are actively engaged in Syria, pursuing only partially overlapping objectives.

讽刺的是，通过下令在叙利亚采取直接行动，特朗普实际上对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)做了普京本人在2015年9月对巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)所做的事——当时普京发动了俄罗斯在中东的军事干预。如今，两个国家都积极参与叙利亚局势，追求只有部分重叠的目标。

The risk of a confrontation has increased since Friday, but, paradoxically, greater American involvement in Syria may also bring about closer US-Russian co-operation there, leading eventually to a political settlement and an end to the bloody six-year civil war.

自上周五以来，对抗风险增加，但矛盾的是，美国在叙利亚加大干预可能也会带来美俄在叙利亚问题上更紧密的合作，最终实现政治解决，终结6年的血腥内战。

Mr Trump’s intervention could strengthen Moscow’s hand with respect to the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and to Iran and its client Hizbollah, both of whom have used the regime’s takeover of Aleppo to press for a complete victory, undermining Russian negotiation efforts. Russia needs a political solution in Syria — that is its only acceptable exit strategy — but its allies are prepared to fight until the bitter end.

特朗普的干预可能加强莫斯科对于叙利亚领导人巴沙尔?阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)、以及伊朗及其附庸真主党(Hizbollah)的手段，二者都利用该政权夺回阿勒颇来强推一场彻底胜利，破坏了俄罗斯的谈判努力。俄罗斯需要政治解决叙利亚问题——这是它唯一可以接受的退出策略——但其盟友准备战斗到最后。

Before Mr Trump put his finger on the scales, it had looked as if Mr Putin was facing a diplomatic stalemate, and that he was becoming a hostage to Mr Assad. This may now change.

在特朗普干涉前，普京似乎正面临外交僵局，即将成为阿萨德的人质。如今这一局面可能会改变。

It is not at all clear, of course, what Mr Trump will do next. More strikes on Syria may follow; the presence of US ground troops in the country may expand; and regime change in Damascus may displace the destruction of Isis as the US’s primary military and political objective.

当然，特朗普下一步会做什么，完全不得而知。美国接下来可能会对叙利亚采取更多打击；美国地面部队在叙利亚的存在可能会扩大；大马士革的政权更迭可能取代摧毁“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)，成为美国首要军事和政治目标。

There are doubtless people in Washington counselling the president to move in that direction. Should they prevail, Russia will face the choice of humiliating defeat or conflict with America. This would be the most dangerous moment the world has known since the US’s nuclear stand-off with the Soviet Union over Cuba in 1962.

华盛顿肯定有人建议特朗普朝这个方向推进。一旦他们占了上风，俄罗斯将面对抉择——要么选择耻辱的失败，要么与美国发生冲突。这将是自1962年美国与前苏联就古巴问题发生核对峙以来，全世界所面临的最危险的时刻。

However, if Washington were now to decide to enter the diplomatic game over Syria, chances for a deal would improve significantly. Moscow has always known that without some sort of political settlement in Syria — impossible without US participation — its achievements there would not be secured.

然而，如果华盛顿现在决定就叙利亚问题进入外交博弈，达成协议的可能性会大大提升。莫斯科方面始终知道，如果不就叙利亚问题达成某种政治解决方案——在没有美国参与的情况下是不可能实现的——它将无法确保在那里所取得的成果。

The Obama administration, despite former secretary of state John Kerry’s best efforts, showed no interest in a serious partnership with Moscow. Mr Trump, in sharp contrast, may be indeed interested in a deal. The Russians will be right to explore this when Mr Tillerson goes to Moscow.

尽管前国务卿约翰?克里(John Kerry)已经做了最大努力，但奥巴马当局并没有表现出与俄罗斯建立严肃伙伴关系的兴趣。与之形成鲜明对比的是，特朗普可能确实对达成交易感兴趣。在蒂勒森访问莫斯科时，俄罗斯探索这方面的机会将是正确的。

Mr Trump prides himself on being a dealmaker. He now has a chance to secure that reputation. And in Mr Tillerson, James Mattis, US defence secretary and HR McMaster, the national security adviser, all of them steeped in the rules of power play, the masters of realpolitik in Moscow might finally have met their match. That they are losing their illusions about Mr Trump and his team is a good thing. But the game is not over. It is just beginning.

特朗普自豪于自己是交易撮合者。他眼下有机会获得这一声誉。同时，蒂勒森、国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)、国家安全顾问赫伯特?雷蒙德?麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)全都沉浸在权力游戏规则中，莫斯科方面的现实政治大师可能终于棋逢对手了。他们正失去对特朗普及其团队的幻想，这是件好事。但游戏还未结束。它才刚刚开始。