FT社评 朝鲜问题亟需国际干预

The Asia-Pacific region is an increasingly important driver of global growth, and sits in an increasingly delicate strategic equilibrium.

亚太地区是全球增长的一个越来越重要的驱动力，而其所处的战略平衡却越来越脆弱。

One country poses an imminent danger to the region’s stability and therefore its prosperity: North Korea.

有一个国家对该地区稳定及繁荣构成迫在眉睫的威胁，那就是朝鲜。

The regime in Pyongyang is persistent in pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deploy them over long distances.

平壤政权执着地追求发展核武，以及能够搭载核武的远程导弹。

The stand-off is terribly dangerous already, and will grow worse.

这种对峙局面已经十分危险，而且还会变得更糟糕。

Stronger international engagement is needed — now.

国际社会需要立即进行更强有力的干预。

Experts believe that North Korea possesses more than 20 nuclear bombs.

专家相信朝鲜拥有超过20枚核弹。

It has deployed ballistic missiles with ranges that extend to Japan, and has been performing tests with the aim of developing missiles that can reach the west coast of the US.

朝鲜已部署射程可至日本的弹道导弹，而且一直在进行导弹试验，目标是开发出射程能达到美国西海岸的导弹。

It is a matter of time before it can make nuclear bombs compact enough for such missiles to carry: five years is the consensus estimate.

朝鲜制造出小巧到远程导弹足以携带的核弹只是时间问题，外界对这个时间的普遍估计为5年。

The US and its allies could not and should not tolerate this.

美国及其盟国对此不能也不应容忍。

The threat is not limited to the Pacific.

这一威胁不止局限于太平洋。

In 2008, US government officials alleged that Pyongyang had attempted to help Syria develop a nuclear facility.

2008年，美国政府官员宣称平壤方面曾企图帮助叙利亚发展核设施。

The international community needs to bring North Korea back to the table for multilateral talks, with the end of the missile programme as the proximate goal.

国际社会需要让朝鲜重返多边谈判，以结束导弹计划为近期目标。

There are three keys for success.

想要成功达成该目标有三个关键点。

First, an unambiguous warning to Pyongyang that the world will never, under any conditions, acknowledge it as a legitimate or permanent nuclear power.

首先，明确警告平壤方面，不管在任何条件下，全世界都绝不会承认它是合法、永久的拥核国。

Second, backing these warnings with heavier sanctions.

其次，以更严厉的制裁来支撑这一警告。

Finally, the US, South Korea and Japan must accelerate their co-operation on a missile defence network in the region.

最后，美国、韩国和日本必须加快它们在该地区导弹防御网络上的合作。

On sanctions, the crucial issue is support from China.

制裁方面，关键问题是要得到中国支持。

In November the UN Security Council, in response to North Korea’s latest nuclear test, passed multilateral sanctions targeting the coal trade.

联合国安理会(UN Security Council)在11月通过了对朝鲜煤炭贸易的多边制裁，作为对朝鲜最近一次核试验的回应。

Coal is one of the country’s key sources of hard currency, but this will not be enough.

煤炭是朝鲜获得硬通货的主要来源之一，但这一制裁还不够。

In negotiations with China, the US reportedly called for tougher measures, such as an oil embargo.

据报道，美国在与中国的谈判中要求采取更严厉的措施，例如石油禁运。

China would not agree.

中国不会同意美国的要求，

It has good reason: if the regime were to collapse, it faces the prospect of refugees flooding over its border or even sharing a border with a unified Korea that is a US ally and host to US troops.

其理由很充分：如果平壤政权崩溃，中国面对的将是难民如潮水一般向中国边境涌来，而且中国甚至可能要与一个作为美国盟友、有美军驻守的统一的朝鲜比邻而居。

Yet China accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s international trade.

中国占朝鲜国际贸易的90%，

Without some degree of Chinese co-operation, UN sanctions cannot tighten meaningfully.

没有中方一定程度的合作，联合国制裁就无法真正收紧。

A middle way, in which China notches up the pressure without posing an existential threat to the Pyongyang regime, must be found.

各方必须找到一条中间道路，让中国能够在不对平壤政权的存亡构成威胁的情况下增加对朝鲜的施压。

If the US, Japan and South Korea, accelerate missile defence co-operation, they could increase their own safety while giving China reason to adjust its stance.

如果美日韩三方加快导弹防御合作，他们就可以在增强自身安全的同时，让中国有理由调整其立场。

The three countries have already moved in this direction.

这三个国家已经在朝这个方向迈进，

The trio also conducted its first joint missile defence exercise in Hawaii in June.

三国还于今年6月在夏威夷举行了第一次联合导弹防御演习。

In July, Washington and Seoul agreed to deploy a new American missile defence system in South Korea.

7月，美韩两国政府同意在韩国部署一个新的美制导弹防御系统。

In November, Japan and South Korea signed an intelligence pact.

11月，日本和韩国签署了一项情报协定。

China opposes high-altitude defence deployment in South Korea.

中国反对在韩国部署高空防御系统。

It appears to worry that it will weaken its own missile capability.

中方似乎担心该系统会削弱自己导弹的威力。

This opens the way for a quid pro quo: help with sanctions in return for missile defence concessions.

这为达成交换提供了机会：中方以配合对朝制裁换取美韩在导弹防御方面作出让步。

Progress will be made infinitely more difficult if China-US relations degrade.

如果中美关系恶化，这一进程的推进难度将大大增加。

President-elect Donald Trump appears intent on shaking up the relationship, using Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

美国当选总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎一心打算改变美中关系格局，将台湾作为议价筹码。

If pursued, this will become a game for the highest possible stakes.

如果他推行这一策略，这将是一盘赌注无穷高的游戏。

One must hope that the Mr Trump has thought through his strategy.

只求特朗普的这一策略是经过深思熟虑的。

At the very least, it puts progress on North Korea in doubt.

至少，这一策略让能否在朝鲜问题上取得进展变得不好说了。