社评:中国经济要靠内需拉动

The gloomy mantra about China's investment-heavy growth model has become familiar. Getting less attention are the changes that could start to bring consumption humming to life.
人们动辄就会说，中国的增长模式是靠投资拉动，这种令人沮丧的说法我们已经再熟悉不过了。其实中国已经出现了一些变化，国内消费可能开始增加，只不过人们还没太注意到这一点罢了。
China's growth rate for the first quarter slowed but wasn't slow. Zhang Xiaoqiang, a senior official at the National Development and Reform Commission, recently hinted that first-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of about 8.4%.
中国今年第一季度增速虽放缓，但其实也并不慢。中国国家发展和改革委员会高级官员张晓强前不久表示，今年一季度国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率约为8.4%。
If that is borne out when the data are published Friday, it would be lower than the 8.9% pace in the final quarter of 2011, and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009─but not the collapse some had feared.
相关报道调查：中国经济硬着陆可能性不大
While that should ease concerns in financial markets about China's immediate growth prospects, the numbers on the structure of the economy are cause for concern. Investment as a share of GDP in 2010 came in at 48%. That's too high. South Korea's investment as a share of GDP topped out at 40% in 1991.
观点：中国经济盛宴即将曲终人散？
Overinvestment is problematic because it risks misallocation of capital on a grand scale. If it persists for many more years, the result will be trade tensions as surplus production spills into global markets, worsening environmental degradation and bankruptcy for overextended Chinese companies.
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To foster sustainable growth, China needs to shift to a new model, where investment takes a break and household consumption steps up as the new engine.
博客：中国经济变革面临双重挑战
Getting there won't be easy. But there are hints that things are moving in the right direction. Higher wages for workers and interest rates for savers are putting more money in households' pockets. A generational shift in thinking means those households might just spend some of that money, instead of saving it.
如果周五发布的数据证实这一数字，则这将低于2011年第四季度8.9%的增长率，也将创下自2009年第二季度以来的最低增长水平，但这并非是一些人所担心的经济崩溃。
A commitment to improve pay and benefits at Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. 0.00%─where hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers make Apple Inc. AAPL +1.50%iPhones and iPads─is a sign of the times.
这应当能缓解金融市场对中国短期增长前景的忧虑，但有关中国经济结构的数据仍是人们担忧情绪的根源所在。2010年，投资占中国GDP的比重达48%，实在是太高了。以韩国为例，投资占该国GDP的比重在1991年达到了40%的最高水平。
Following a critical report from the Fair Labor Association published at the end of March, Hon Hai─also known as Foxconn─agreed to increase overtime pay for its workers. The Taiwanese manufacturer also said it would improve migrant workers' access to unemployment insurance─which the Chinese social-security system makes it difficult to access outside a worker's home province.
过度投资是有问题的，因为这可能使得资本出现大规模配置不当。如果这种情况持续多年，那结果将是，剩余生产力溢入全球市场将引发紧张的贸易关系，环境恶化状况将加重，高杠杆化的中国企业将破产。
In the past, the problem of low wages has been compounded by a financial sector that dents income by offering households low returns on their saving.
为促进可持续增长，中国需要转向一个新模式，让投资步伐缓一缓，扩大居民消费并使其成为推动经济增长的新引擎。
In 2011, households with funds in a one-year fixed-term deposit received just a 3.5% return─below the rate of inflation. Very low interest rates represent a transfer from households, who do most of China's saving, to businesses, which do most of the borrowing.
这个目标实现起来并不容易。但有迹象显示，情况正向着正确的方向发展。提高工人工资和上调银行储蓄利率让中国家庭有了更多收入。新一代人观念的变化也意味着，这些中国居民也许会将所得收入花掉一部分，而不是全部存起来。

Here too, there are signs of a move in the right direction, with new financial products offering China's savers inflation-beating returns.
鸿海精密工业股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.，简称：鸿海精密)承诺将提高工人工资和福利，这代表着这个时代的变化。该公司共有几十万名中国雇员，苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPhone智能手机和iPad平板电脑都产自这里。
Two years ago, Ms. Wang, a translator with a legal nonprofit in Beijing, kept all her savings in fixed-term deposits. Now Ms. Wang, who didn't give her first name, has transferred 200,000 yuan (about $31,700) to wealth-management products, leaving just 50,000 yuan sitting in the bank.
在美国公平劳工协会(Fair Labor Association)于3月底发布一份重要报告后，鸿海精密(亦称富士康(Foxconn))同意提高员工的加班工资。这家台湾生产商还说，将扩大外来务工者获得失业保险的机会。在中国的社会保障制度下，工作者很难在自己户籍所在地以外的地方获得失业保险。
'If I just put all my money in the bank, it's not appropriate because the interest rate is very low,' Ms. Wang said. 'The new investment products are offering 4.5% to 5% returns, and it's very convenient. We can do it all over the Internet.'
过去，低工资再加上中国金融业的低息存款，使得中国家庭收入受到双重冲击。
Ms. Wang's choice is being copied in many Chinese households. A higher return on their savings means households have more income and more money to spend.
2011年，居民一年期定期存款利率仅为3.5%，低于通货膨胀率。极低的存款利率让中国的储蓄主体居民吃亏，同时让中国的贷款主体企业得利。
Rising incomes won't make much difference, though, if China's households don't ease up on their saving.
在这方面，也有种种迹象表明情况正朝着正确的方向发展。新金融产品为中国储户带来了跑赢通胀率的回报。
Thriftiness is a habit for China's older generation, many of whom grew up in poverty and turbulence. The younger generation might be different. Compared with their parents, China's 20-somethings─many of them only children─have grown up in an atmosphere of stability and affluence.
两年前，北京一家非营利性法律组织的翻译王女士(音，她没有向记者透露名字)将所有储蓄都放在定期存款中。而现在，王女士用人民币20万元(约合3.17万美元)的存款购买了理财产品，银行存款中仅留有人民币5万元。
That might reshape attitudes toward spending and saving.
王女士说，由于利率很低，因此把所有钱存在银行并不妥当。新的理财产品提供的收益率在4.5%至5%之间，而且手续便捷，完全可以在网上操作。
'I don't really keep track of how much I spend, I just buy what I want,' said Ms. Mu, a 27-year-old editor for a popular Internet portal.
目前中国很多家庭的选择都和王女士一样。家庭储蓄的回报率越高，意味着家庭收入越高，能够用于消费的支出也就越多。
In recent months Ms. Mu, who didn't give her first name, has splurged on an iPhone, a Lenovo laptop and Dior cosmetics. On months where she travels for business, overseas shopping with a credit card means she regularly exceeds her monthly salary of 10,000 yuan ($1,600).
然而，如果收入增加的同时居民并不增加消费支出，那么情况和此前相比不会有太大差别。
The headline figures on China's roaring investment and stagnant consumption are alarming. But they also are a lagging reflection of conditions that shaped spending and saving decisions in years past.
节俭是中国老一辈的传统，因为他们中的多数人在贫困和动荡中长大。但年轻一代可能会有所不同。与父辈相比，中国20多岁的年轻人(大都是独生子女)是在稳定和富裕的环境中长大的。
It is wages, interest rates and attitudes today that dictate the outlook. In a younger generation's preference for consumption over saving, rising incomes, and a financial sector paying higher returns to household savers, there are signs that China's economy is starting to find a new balance.
这可能会改变这一代人对消费和储蓄的态度。
TOM ORLIK
现年27岁，在一家主流门户网站担任编辑的穆小姐(音)说，我基本上不会记录自己的消费习惯，通常都是想要什么就买什么。
没有向记者透露名字的穆小姐近几个月来陆续买了一部iPhone，一台联想(Lenovo)笔记本电脑和多款迪奥(Dior)化妆品。在那些需要出差的月份，她的信用卡海外消费支出通常要超过她人民币1万元(约合1,600美元)的月薪。