关注社会:"市场宠儿" 越南风光不再

Until a few years ago, Vietnam was one of the world's hottest emerging markets. Now it faces an urgent task: fix a beleaguered banking system or watch its economy continue to slip behind faster-growing neighbors.

直到几年前，越南还一直是全球最热门的新兴市场之一。如今，越南面临着一个紧迫的任务：修复满目疮痍的银行体系，否则就只能眼睁睁看着经济继续下滑，落后于经济增长越来越快的邻国。

Piles of bad loans following the financial crisis have dragged down growth in Vietnam and left banks weakened and reluctant to lend.

金融危机过后堆积如山的坏账拖累了越南的经济增长，导致越南的银行体系被削弱，不愿意放贷。

The government recently acknowledged that nonperforming loans-many made to inefficient state-owned companies-could be as high as 10% of the banking system, substantially higher than reported by individual banks. Fitch Ratings analysts think the number is as high as 15%.

越南政府近期承认，银行体系当前的坏账水平可能高达10%（其中的大量坏账来自运营不善的国有企业欠下的贷款），这一比例远远高于个别银行录得的数据。惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)的分析师认为，这一比例实际上可能高达15%。

A record number of firms are declaring bankruptcy, and in the sprawling urban areas encompassing Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the landscape is littered with stalled construction projects as builders run out of cash or put on the brakes as demand for condominiums and office space dries up.

宣布破产的公司数量创下新高。在包括河内和胡志明市在内的大片城市地区，到处都是已经停工的建筑工地，原因可能是建筑商缺少资金，或是对公寓楼和办公楼的需求枯竭让他们踩了急刹车。

Vietnam fought off rumors in recent days that it was seeking an International Monetary Fund bailout for its banking system. An IMF spokeswoman said no requests for aid had been made. State Bank of Vietnam Deputy Gov. Le Minh Hung said in a statement on the government's website that the country had no intention of seeking a rescue.

越南最近驳斥了有关该国正在寻求国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, 简称:IMF)救助其银行体系的传言。IMF的一名发言人说，越南没有提出援助请求。越南央行(State Bank of Vietnam)副行长黎明兴(Le Minh Hung)在政府网站上的一份声明中说，越南没有寻求救助的意向。

However, the IMF and others have been advising Vietnam on how to implement a domestically financed bailout that would restore its banks to health. In its latest economic review the fund said that 'quick and comprehensive action' was needed to solidify weak banks and put the economy on more solid ground.

不过，IMF和其他组织过去一直在就如何实施一项国内出资的救助计划向越南提供建议，该救助计划旨在使银行恢复健康。IMF在最近的一份经济评估中说，越南需要采取快速和全面的行动加固脆弱的银行体系，巩固经济基础。

Fears over Vietnam's banks intensified in August when one of the country's most prominent tycoons, Nguyen Duc Kien, was arrested for allegedly improperly lending money to real-estate projects. Efforts to reach Mr. Kien, who now runs a number of private investment funds and owns Hanoi's main professional soccer club, have been unsuccessful. Stocks dropped in the days following the arrest, and the Ho Chi Minh Stock Index is down 18% since the beginning of May.

今年8月，越南最赫赫有名的大亨阮德坚(Nguyen Duc Kien)由于被指通过不正当方式向房地产项目贷款而被逮捕，这加剧了外界对越南银行业的担忧。阮德坚目前经营着几只私人投资基金，拥有河内一家大型的职业足球俱乐部。记者试图联系阮德坚置评，但没有成功。在阮德坚被逮捕之后的几天，越南的股市出现下跌，自5月初以来，胡志明股指(Ho Chi Minh Stock Index)已经下跌18%。

Vietnam shares fell 2.2% Monday, led by selling in property-related stocks after state media reports suggested real-estate developers are trying to cut prices to boost sales of apartments.

越南股市周一下跌了2.2%，这主要是房地产股的抛售引发的。此前，越南国有媒体报道暗示说，房地产开发商正在试图降价以提振公寓销售。

Economists warn that Vietnam has entered a dangerous cycle where banks, saddled with bad debts, are unwilling to lend, making it harder for businesses to invest. That feeds into slower growth, which in turn makes it harder for companies to pay back loans, again harming the banks.

经济学家警告说，越南已经进入了一个危险的循环，银行被坏账拖累不愿放贷，导致企业投资更加困难，这助长了经济放缓的趋势，反过来让企业更加难以偿还贷款，从而又使银行收到伤害。

The result is that Vietnam's economy is likely to grow below its potential for years to come, unless stronger steps are taken to clean up the banks, economists say.

经济学家说，结果是，未来几年越南的经济增长可能要在潜在趋势水平以下运行，除非采取更强有力的措施对银行进行清理。

'I don't think there's any quick fix to a problem like this, as you see in the West. It takes time to work through a solution' to a banking crisis, says Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics. He figures Vietnam's economy will grow at closer to a 5% rate in coming years than the 8% the country enjoyed through much of the previous decade. Although higher than growth rates in the West, 5% is considered slow for a developing Asian country like Vietnam and might not be fast enough to generate sufficient jobs to keep its growing population employed.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的经济学家莱瑟(Gareth Leather)说，我不认为解决这样的问题存在捷径，我们在西方的所见所闻已经证明了这一点；找到解决银行危机的解决方案需要时间。他认为，越南经济未来几年将会以5%左右的速度增长，过去10年大部分时间里8%的经济增速已经一去不复返了。尽管仍然高于西方的经济增速，对于越南这样的亚洲发展中国家来说，5%是比较慢的，可能无法制造足够的就业机会来满足日益增长的人口的需求。

The government this month revised its forecast for 2012 growth down to 5.2% from 6% previously.

本月，越南政府把2012年的增长预期从之前的6%下调到了5.2%。

Vietnam's leaders have acknowledged that a fix is needed. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in March approved a three-year restructuring plan for the banking sector designed to strengthen the country's largest banks and encourage a series of mergers among smaller lenders, but officials appear uncertain about how to put the blueprint into effect.

越南领导人已经承认，需要找到一个解决办法。越南总理阮晋勇(Nguyen Tan Dung)今年3月通过了一项针对银行体系的三年重组计划，目的是增强越南大型银行的实力，鼓励小银行之间的并购，但是越南官员似乎并不清楚如何实施这一计划。

Plans to launch a 'bad bank' to buy up distressed assets have been discussed, but a foreign investor familiar with government discussions say implementing such a solution is being delayed by Hanoi's lack of expertise in managing a modern banking system.

越南已经讨论了推出一个“坏账银行”购买不良资产的方案，但是熟悉政府讨论的一名外国投资者说，由于越南政府缺乏管理现代银行体系的专业知识，实施这样一个解决方案的时机正在被延误。