衰退中的俄罗斯靠什么对叙利亚用兵
Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard Time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putin’s bombing campaign in Syria.
西方领导人如果在日子难熬的经济衰退期间发起海外军事行动，都会尝到说服国民为其买单的苦头。但俄罗斯政府上周五晚向国家杜马(Duma)提交2016年预算草案时，甚至没人提到弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)总统在叙利亚发起的轰炸行动。
Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the country’s economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening.
油价下跌、卢布疲软以及西方制裁已造成俄罗斯经济今年上半年萎缩3.4%，由于俄罗斯一半的预算依靠与石油相关的财政收入，这迫使莫斯科在一些方面勒紧腰带。
Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget — far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent.
例如，根据预算，明年养老金的增幅将不超过4%——远低于12%的通胀率。
Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria — both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the military’s pockets, say defence experts.
防务专家称，尽管如此，莫斯科能够轻松负担得起在叙利亚的军事行动——既是因为与美国的类似作战行动相比，俄军的开支较少，也是因为连续17年的军费增长以及不透明的预算帮助充实了俄军的底气。
Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Jane’s, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations.
根据防务研究机构简氏防务(IHS Jane's)以及英国《金融时报》的计算，即使俄罗斯继续以当前水平进行一整年的空中打击，所需资金也不到2016年国防预算的3%。
“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between $2.3m and $4m a day,” said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Jane’s.
简氏防务高级分析师本穆尔斯(Ben Moores)表示：“我们认为，像他们如今正在开展的这类行动，每天的花费介于230万至400万美元之间。”
A sum of Rbs3.15tn ($51bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years.
共计3.15万亿卢布（510亿美元）已被指定用于明年的国防支出。上周，俄政府扭转了一些早先计划的国防预算削减，因此，2016年的国防预算将比今年增加0.8%，但其在公共支出总额和国内生产总值(GDP)所占比重将出现多年来的首次略微减少。
However, more than a quarter of this year’s budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret.
然而，今年预算的逾四分之一被划拨给了军事开支，而军事预算的绝大部分都是机密。
This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west.
缺乏公众监督以及财政负担不明显，让普京得以继续甚至扩大他对西方高调发起的地缘政治挑战。
On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russia’s three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscow’s military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent.
俄罗斯国家电视台的不间断报道（将俄在叙利亚持续已3周的轰炸行动描述为打击邪恶的斗争）产生了效果，独立民调机构列瓦达(Levada)发现，对莫斯科发起的军事行动的支持率已从9月下旬的14%飙升至逾70%。
Mr Putin’s support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week.
政府支持的民意调查机构VTsIOM上周称，普京的支持率创下89.9%的历史新高。
Mr Moores’ calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support.
简氏防务的穆尔斯对俄罗斯参战成本的计算基于这样假设：俄罗斯在拉塔基亚(Latakia)空军基地拥有36架战斗机和20架直升机，平均每天出动30架次，每架次投掷5枚炸弹。此外，他还算入了俄罗斯部署的至少1500名官兵，以及俄海军的支持。
According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly $4m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan.
简氏防务的数据显示，相比美军在阿富汗部署同样数量军人每日所需的大约400万美元开销，俄罗斯维持叙利亚驻军所需费用仅为十分之一多一点。
This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers’ salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than spread out in combat.
这是因为俄罗斯可通过海路补给军队以节省燃料，俄军官兵的薪水、伙食及医疗费用更低，而且俄军事人员据信大都集中在基地，而非分散于许多前沿阵地。
According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly $4bn in its 14-month campaign against Isis Islamist fighters — roughly $10m a day.
五角大楼近期公布的数据显示，打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)伊斯兰主义武装分子14个月以来，美国迄今已在军事行动上支出约40亿美元——每天约1000万美元。
Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscow’s opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending.
其他外国及俄罗斯防务专家称，鉴于莫斯科方面不透明的国防预算，准确计算出干预叙利亚的花费是不可能的。但他们一致认为，与总军事开支相比，这很可能只是很小一部分。
“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our country’s military budget,” said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. “The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.”
“这（叙利亚军事行动开支）将消失在我国军事预算的巨大黑洞中，”莫斯科盖达尔经济政策研究所(Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)军事经济学专家瓦西里丠采平(Vasily Zatsepin)说，“我们国防支出的透明度正随着国防部长的更替而不断降低。”
Russia’s national defence budget accounts for less than half of the country’s total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development.
根据伯明翰大学(University of Birmingham)俄罗斯军事专家朱利安錠珀(Julian Cooper)的分析，俄罗斯国防预算占该国总军事开支的不到一半，后者预计今年将达到GDP的5.42%。除此之外，俄军每年在武器采购、维护与开发上的支出相当于国防预算的60%。
A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises.
一名政府高官称，预计叙利亚军事行动的花销将通过缩减国内军事演练的次数和规模来弥补。俄国防部并不披露此类演练的详尽开支。
IHS’s calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putin’s birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was “very expensive”, but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway.
简氏防务的计算没有包含10月7日（普京生日当天）向叙利亚反对派武装分子发射的26枚巡航导弹。一名俄罗斯官员称，使用导弹“非常昂贵”，但防务专家指出，俄军本来就准备作为演练的一部分发射一些导弹，尽管数量较少。
Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war.
俄罗斯军事专家称，其他几种军费开支类别也提供了可用于叙利亚战争的储备。
“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank.
俄罗斯防务智库战略与技术分析中心(Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies)主任鲁斯兰渠霍夫(Ruslan Pukhov)说：“虽然官方称俄罗斯武装部队拥有100万人，大家都知道实际数字更接近85万，但财政部仍按100万人拨款。”
Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said.
他说，国防部所称的一些开支——如发给士兵的奖金——可能被转拨为战争支出。
Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multiyear armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air force’s fuel bill.
多位防务分析师补充说，一项多年军备计划本来就预计会出现的放缓，将为在叙利亚的军事行动腾出资金。此外，他们认为，莫斯科正通过使用库存的过期弹药，并让叙利亚负担俄空军的一部分燃料费用，来降低战争支出。
