中国通胀降至5年最低点 中国增长疲软

Chinese consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in almost five years in September, the latest sign of flagging growth that may encourage Beijing to adopt further targeted easing measures.

9月份中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)出现了近五年内的最低涨幅，是中国增长疲软的最新表象，或将刺激中国政府采取进一步定向宽松举措。

The consumer price index rose 1.8 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 2 per cent growth in August and at its slowest pace since August 2010.

今年9月，中国CPI指数同比上涨1.8%，涨幅低于8月份的2%，是2010年8月以来的最低涨幅。

The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, also fell 1.8 per cent, compared with the 1.6 per cent fall forecast in a Reuters poll, the 31st consecutive month of declines.

9月，基于商品批发价格的生产者价格指数(PPI)同比下跌了1.8%，低于路透社(Reuters)在调查中给出的下跌1.6%的预期，是该指数连续第31个月下跌。

“It’s a very low reading. We have a decline in core inflation, which shows that it’s not just food prices declining. There is a generalised softness of domestic demand. This is consistent with weakening growth,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Asia economist for Crédit Agricole.

法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)亚洲经济学家达利乌斯•科瓦尔奇克(Dariusz Kowalczyk)表示：“这样的通胀指数确实很低。核心通胀率正在下降，表明不仅仅是食品价格出现了下跌。目前国内需求普遍疲软，这与疲弱的经济增长势头相一致。”

“Policy makers in Beijing should begin to be concerned that global disinflationary pressures are spreading to China.”

“全球通缩压力正在向中国蔓延，北京的决策者也应该开始担心这个问题了。”

Core consumer inflation fell from 1.6 per cent in August to 1.5 per cent in September, while growth in food prices fell from 3 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

核心消费者通胀率从8月份的1.6%降至9月份的1.5%。与此同时，食品价格涨幅从3%降至2.3%。

On the manufacturing side, cooling property sales have rippled through the economy this year, hitting demand for building materials such as copper and cement as developers slow new construction. Steel prices in some areas of China are now as cheap as cabbage.

在生产方面，今年房地产销售的降温波及到整个中国经济。随着开发商新建楼盘增长放缓，中国对铜和混凝土等建材的需求大受打击。如今，在中国部分地区，钢铁已经跌至白菜价。

The weak property market also affected consumer prices through the housing component, which tracks rental prices. Transport prices, another component of CPI, contracted because of falling global oil prices.

由于疲弱的楼市导致房租下滑，也影响了消费者价格指数。此外，由于全球油价下跌，CPI指数的另一个成分——交通运输价格——也出现了下跌。

China will announce data on third-quarter gross domestic product next Wednesday. Consensus forecasts are for year-on-year growth of 7.2 per cent. That would be a 5½-year low and below the government’s 2014 growth target of 7.5 per cent.

下周三，中国将公布三季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。市场预计三季度GDP将同比增长7.2%。这将是5年半以来的最低增速，也低于中国政府为2014年全年设定的7.5%的增长目标。

The government has launched a string of targeted monetary and fiscal stimulus measures this year, including lower reserve ratios for small banks, direct loans from the central bank to large state-owned lenders, and easing of rules on mortgage lending.

中国政府已启动了一系列货币和财政定向刺激举措，其中包括降低小型银行的存款准备金率、央行对大型国有银行直接发放贷款、以及放宽按揭贷款门槛。

The latest CPI figures could make additional easing measures more likely, although Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly said that the government will not launch a broad-based stimulus that could exacerbate existing distortions in the economy.

中国总理李克强曾反复重申，中国政府不会推出大范围刺激措施，因为这会加重中国经济中的结构性问题。尽管如此，最新发布的CPI数据，却令中国推出进一步宽松举措的可能性大大增加。

On Tuesday the central bank lowered the interest rate on its 14-day bond repurchase agreements, a key benchmark for short-term funding costs.

周二，中国央行(PBoC)再次下调了14天正回购利率。14天正回购利率是市场中短期资金成本的重要基准指标。

“The government has stepped up policy easing and we continue to expect one 50 basis point bank reserve requirement ratio cut per quarter from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015,” analysts from Nomura wrote on Wednesday.

野村证券(Nomura)分析师周三在一份报告中写道：“中国政府加大了政策宽松力度。从2014年第四季度到2015年第四季度，我们预计会继续看到银行存款准备金率每季度下调50个基点。”

One-year interest-rate swaps based on the seven-day repo rate hit 3.08 per cent on Wednesday, the lowest level since February 2013, suggesting that money-market traders expect the repo rate to remain at low levels.

周三，基于7天回购利率的一年期利率互换跌至3.08%。这是2013年2月以来的最低水平，表明货币市场的交易人员预计回购利率会维持在低位不变。