5月份中国进口降幅收窄至年以来的最低水平

Chinese imports contracted at their slowest pace since 2014 in May, suggesting government stimulus measures focused on housing and infrastructure are succeeding in stabilising demand.

5月份，中国进口下滑速度降至2014年以来的最低水平，说明中国政府聚焦于楼市和基建的刺激措施正使需求趋稳。

The recent rebound in commodity prices also helped buoy imports, which fell by 0.4 per cent in US dollar value terms last month, less than the 10.9 per cent drop in April and the narrowest monthly decline since October 2014, according to customs data released on Wednesday.

大宗商品价格近期的反弹也帮助推升了进口。中国海关周三发布的数据显示，上个月以美元计的进口额同比下降0.4%，是2014年10月以来的最小月度降幅。4月份的同比降幅为10.9%。

Exports were less rosy, falling 4.1 per cent in May against a 1.8 per cent decline in April, reflecting sluggish demand in Europe and the US. Analysts had forecast an import decline of 6 per cent and an export decline of 3.6 per cent, according to a Reuters poll.

出口数据则没有这么喜人。5月份，出口额同比下滑4.1%，幅度大于4月份的下滑1.8%，反映出欧美需求疲软。路透社(Reuters)一项调查显示，分析师原本预期进口下滑6%，出口下滑3.6%。

“The import figure reflects the recovery of domestic demand but it’s partly also the low base of comparison from last year. It’s not only prices, import volumes also rose. In general, it shows domestic demand isn’t as poor as everyone imagines,” said Hu Yanni, economist at China Securities in Beijing.

中信建投证券(China Securities)驻北京经济学家胡艳妮表示：“进口数字反映出国内需求的复苏，但它在一定程度上也是由去年的比较基数较低所致。不只是进口价格，进口量也上升了。总体上说，这表明国内需求并不像大家想象的那么糟。”

Dollar-denominated imports from Hong Kong surged by a record 242.6 per cent year on year in May, suggesting no let-up in the ploy of over-invoicing to move cash out of China.

5月份，以美元计的来自香港的进口同比激增了创纪录的242.6%，说明通过虚开发票将现金转移出中国的做法并未减少。

Inflating the value of imports from Hong Kong to China is an old ruse that has regained popularity this year as authorities in China clamp down on official channels of taking cash abroad.

虚报从香港进口至中国内地的商品的价值，是一种老招数。今年，在中国当局对把现金转移出境的官方渠道加以限制之际，这种招数又火了起来。

China’s merchandise trade surplus rose to $50bn in May, the largest monthly figure since January, helping to offset ongoing capital outflows last month.

5月份，中国商品贸易顺差攀升至500亿美元，是1月份以来最高的，这帮助抵消了上个月的持续资本外流。

The outlook on imports for the remainder of the year depends largely on whether a surge in monetary and fiscal stimulus, which began late last year, continues.

今年接下来的进口前景，很大程度上取决于去年底开始大力加强的货币和财政刺激能否持续下去。

If the government vigorously implements promises to cut overcapacity in basic manufacturing industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals, that would also crimp demand for commodity imports.

此外，如果中国政府积极履行承诺、削减钢铁和有色金属等基础制造业的过剩产能，也会抑制大宗商品的进口需求。