中国债券开始吸引境外投资者

Foreign fund managers plan to double their investments in renminbi-denominated bonds in the next year, according to a survey that suggests appetite for China’s vast debt market is rising in spite of fears about the country’s financial stability.

一项调查显示，外国基金经理打算在未来一年将其对人民币计价债券的投资增加一倍，这似乎表明，尽管人们担心中国金融稳定，但投资者对中国巨大债务市场的胃口正在变大。

Investors polled by Deutsche Bank said they planned to double their allocation in the next year to about 13 per cent of their local currency portfolios, following moves by China this year to open its bond markets — the world’s third-largest behind the US and Japan.

接受德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)调查的投资者表示，他们计划在未来一年把各自对人民币债券的配置增加一倍，至外汇投资组合的大约13%。此前中国在今年采取行动开放在岸债券市场；中国债市的规模在世界上排名第三，仅次于美国和日本。

Outstanding onshore bonds are worth about $7.5tn, roughly the same as the rest of the entire emerging market debt universe, analysts have calculated. The US bond markets are worth $35tn and Japan’s $11tn.

据分析师们计算，未偿还的中国在岸债券总值约7.5万亿美元，大致相当于整个新兴市场债市其余部分的规模。美国债券市场的规模为35万亿美元，日本为11万亿美元。

China’s opening of its debt market in May allows international investors to buy onshore bonds under the auspices of a so-called agent bank appointed by the government rather than having to seek approval for an investment quota under a set of rules known as QFII.

中国在今年5月开放国内债券市场，允许国际投资者通过政府任命的所谓代理银行买入在岸债券，而不必按照合格境外机构投资者(QFII)制度申请投资额度。

The changes represented a streamlining of the investment process for foreigners, and a willingness by Beijing to ease tight controls by delegating approval. About 20 banks are agents including HSBC, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank.

这些变化代表着境外投资者的投资流程得到精简，北京方面愿意通过下放审批权来放松严密控制。约20家银行是代理银行，包括汇丰(HSBC)、渣打(Standard Chartered)和德意志银行。

“Now that access has opened up substantially for offshore investors, we expect foreign participation in China’s domestic bond market to accelerate and for onshore renminbi bonds to be an increasingly important component of major global fixed income investors’ portfolios,” said Michael Ormaechea, head of Deutsche Bank’s global markets unit in the region.

“既然准入已对境外投资者大幅度放开，我们预计外资参与中国国内债券市场将会加速，在岸人民币债券将在全球各大固定收益投资者的投资组合中成为越来越重要的组成部分，”德意志银行全球市场部的亚洲区负责人迈克尔•奥玛查亚(Michael Ormaechea)表示。

More than a quarter of survey respondents had already filed for registration or were selecting an agent, while a further 40 per cent were looking at the opportunities.

四分之一以上的受访者已经申请注册或选定了一个代理，还有另外40%正在寻找机会。

Bankers have reported rising interest from fund managers in the relatively high yields in China. Ten-year Chinese government bonds, for example, yield about 2.7 per cent, compared with 1.6 per cent for equivalent US sovereign debt. Japanese and German government bonds offer negative yields.

据银行家们近来报告，基金经理们对中国相对较高的收益率越来越感兴趣。例如，10年期中国国债的收益率达到约2.7%，而对应的美国主权债务收益率为1.6%。日本和德国国债则提供负收益率。

One catalyst for faster investment by foreign investors would be the inclusion of China in international bond indices, which would force index tracking funds to buy onshore debt. Four-fifths of those surveyed by Deutsche Bank expect that to happen in the next two years.

境外投资者加快投资的催化剂之一将是中国被纳入国际债券指数，这将迫使指数追踪基金购买中国的在岸债务。在德意志银行调查的受访者中，五分之四的投资者预计这将在未来两年内发生。

However, earlier this year onshore equities were turned down for inclusion in MSCI’s benchmark global equities indices partly because foreign buyers were concerned about their ability to repatriate investments on demand. It is a worry also raised by bond investors.

然而，今年早些时候中国在岸股票被MSCI明晟拒绝纳入其基准全球股票指数，部分原因是因为境外买家担心他们按需汇回投资的能力。债券投资者也已提出这方面的担心。

The survey highlighted longstanding concerns over the risks of investing in China. Just over 40 per cent of those polled said they were uncomfortable with the stability of the financial system.

这项调查突显了外界长期担忧的在中国投资的风险。略高于40%的受访者表示，他们对中国金融体系的稳定感到不安。

However, less than a third were worried about the risk of a sharp depreciation in the renminbi — fear of which sent global markets into a tailspin in January.

然而，只有不到三分之一的人担心人民币大幅贬值的风险；这方面的恐惧曾在今年1月导致全球市场陷入混乱。