与中国打贸易战 特朗普手里有多少弹药

SHANGHAI — As a candidate, Donald J. Trump aimed some of his most blistering words at China, declaring that we already have a trade war and suggesting ominously that we have the power over China, economic power.

上海——作为一名候选人，唐纳德•J•特朗普(Donald J. Trump)将一些最激烈的言辞抛向了中国，宣称我们已经处在一场贸易战中，还带威胁性地表示，我们拥有压倒中国的力量，经济力量。

As president of the United States, Mr Trump can use trade — a cornerstone of his populist rise — as a weapon, with the potential to drastically reshape the world’s two largest economies, as well as the companies, industries and workers who depend on their hundreds of billions of dollars in closely linked goods.

作为美国的总统，特朗普则有可能把贸易——他的民粹主义崛起的一块基石——当作一件武器，大大改变世界上最大的两个经济体，也会给依赖环环相连的数千亿美元商品贸易的企业、行业及工人带去改变。

But neither side may win.

然而，结果有可能是两败俱伤。

Cutting off trade will not bring back the bulk of American manufacturing jobs lost to China in previous decades as it became the world’s factory floor.

切断贸易，无法挽回美国在之前几十年因中国成为世界工厂而失去的制造业工作。

Already, some industries that left the United States years ago, such as garment making and some light manufacturing, are now leaving China for even cheaper places.

数年前离开美国一些行业，比如服装制造和一些轻工业，现在已经开始离开中国，转向到成本更低的地方。

An aggressive stance with China also risks antagonizing an authoritarian government with its own brand of economic nationalism.

对中国采取强硬立场，还有可能惹恼一个本身也有经济民族主义名声的威权政府。

Yet the unsettling reality for Beijing is that Mr Trump has a variety of ways to get back at China for trade practices.

不过对北京来说，让人不安的现实是特朗普有各种各样的方式可以就贸易行为对中国进行报复。

That he, his supporters or people in the affected industries view as unfair.

在他、他的支持者或处在受影响行业的人看来，那些贸易是不公平的。

China sells a large array of goods to the United States that he can aim at for higher tariffs.

中国向美国销售大量的商品，他可以对这些商品征收更高的关税。

The opportunities for China to retaliate would be more limited.

中国进行报复的机会将更加有限。

In the most basic terms, China buys less from the United States.

简单地讲，原因是中国从美国购买的东西比较少。

But China could make some strategic strikes at targets like Boeing, American automakers and American farmers.

但中国可以对波音(Boeing)公司、美国汽车制造商和美国农民等目标实施一些战略性打击。

Beijing exerts tight control over China’s airlines, for example, and sometimes steers contracts to Airbus, Boeing’s European rival, when officials feel that Washington is uncooperative.

比如，北京对中国的航空公司实施严格的控制，偶尔在官员们感觉华盛顿不太配合的时候，转而和波音在欧洲的对手空中客车(Airbus)签合同。

Boeing complains, ‘We have been pretty good friends with China.

波音公司抱怨，‘我们和中国一直是很好的朋友。

Why are we always a target?’ said He Weiwen, a former Chinese commerce ministry official who is now the co-director of the China-U.S.-E.U.

为什么总拿我们当靶子？’曾在中国商务部担任官员的何伟文说。

Study Center at the influential China Association of International Trade in Beijing.

他现在是颇具影响力的中国国际贸易学会下属的中美欧研究中心联席主席。

Or China could wreak havoc on the vast yet delicate supply chain behind a wide range of products like iPhones and auto parts.

中国还可以严重破坏支撑iPhone和汽车配件等许多产品的庞大而脆弱的供应链。

Six years ago, Chinese restrictions on exports of obscure yet vital minerals led to a global outcry by manufacturers.

六年前，中国对鲜为人知但十分重要的矿物出口进行限制，曾引发全球制造商的强烈抗议。

Early indications are that trade could take a more prominent place on the White House’s China agenda, which under President Obama was dominated by Beijing’s territorial claims in East Asia and its influence over North Korea.

初步迹象表明，贸易可能会在白宫的中国日程上占据更显著的位置。而在奥巴马总统的任期内，这个日程主要被北京在东亚的领土主张及它对朝鲜的影响占据。

In a strong signal, Mr Trump has turned to Dan DiMicco, a longtime steel executive and trade critic, to oversee trade issues during his administration’s transition.

特朗普已经准备让长期担任钢铁企业主管、同时也是贸易批评人士的丹•迪米科(Dan DiMicco)，在他的政府实现过渡期间负责贸易方面的事务，这释放出了比较强烈的信号。

Mr DiMicco writes a personal blog, liberally sprinkled with exclamation points, that blames America’s industrial decline on cheating by trade partners, particularly China.

在满是惊叹号的个人博客里，迪米科将美国工业的衰退归罪于贸易伙伴的欺骗行为，尤其是中国。

Hillary Clinton has claimed Trump’s trade policies will start a ‘Trade War’ but what she fails to recognize is we are already in one, he wrote on his blog last summer.

希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)说特朗普的贸易政策会引发‘贸易战’，但她没有意识到我们已经处于贸易战中了，去年夏天他在自己的博客上写道。

Trump clearly sees it and he will work to put an end to China’s ‘Mercantilist Trade War’! A war it has been waging against us for nearly 2 decades!

特朗普显然明白这一点，他会努力终结中国的‘重商主义贸易战’！一场针对我们进行了近20年的战争！

China over the last two days has emphasized that a healthy relationship would benefit both sides.

过去两天，中国在强调健康的中美关系会让双方都受益。

On Thursday, Lu Kang, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said, It is in the common interests of both countries to develop a long-term, stable and prosperous trading relationship, and any American politician would take a policy in the interest of his country and the American people.

中国外交部发言人陆慷周四称，发展长期健康稳定的中美关系，符合两国人民根本利益，还表示美国任何一个政治家，只要从本国人民利益出发，都会采取一个有利于中美经贸合作的政策。

Mr Trump’s views veer widely from the free-trade positions of the Republican Party in recent years and signal a return to the more hawkish positions of the Reagan administration, which repeatedly went after Japan on trade issues.

最近几年，特朗普的观点大大偏离了共和党自由贸易的立场，显示出向里根政府时期更加强硬的立场回归的迹象，后者曾就贸易问题多次对日本采取行动。

Since President Ronald Reagan, Republican and Democratic administrations have been reluctant to confront countries that may be subsidizing or dumping exports, either because the evidence is unclear or because of a risk of damaging diplomatic or strategic relations.

自罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)总统之后，共和党和民主党政府一直都不大愿意对抗有可能在补贴或倾销出口产品的国家，要么是因为证据不太确凿，要么因为存在破坏外交关系或战略关系的风险。

This is the kind of stuff you learn in law school, and in the early days of your law career, said Alan H. Price, a longtime lawyer for the American steel and aluminum industries at Wiley Rein.

这是你在法学院要学的东西，是在你从事法律工作初期就该知道的，在卫理律师事务所(Wiley Rein)美国钢铁和铝业部的资深律师艾伦•H•普赖斯(Alan H. Price)说。

When used, the measures were sometimes deemed ineffective.

在使用时，这些措施有时被认为并不起作用。

In one rare example, President Obama used his powers to impose tariffs of up to 35 percent on imports of Chinese tires soon after he took office.

一个罕见的例子是，奥巴马总统上台后没多久，便动用自己的权力对从中国进口的轮胎征收最高达35%的关税。

The tariffs prompted China to impose steep tariffs on American chicken meat and automotive products.

此举导致中国对美国的鸡肉和汽车产品征收高额关税。

Both countries complained to the World Trade Organization, which mostly sided with the United States.

两国均向通常都站在美国一边的世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)发起申诉。

The case resulted in the United States producing more tires, but imports from other countries rose even faster.

此案导致美国自产的轮胎增加，但从其他国家进口的轮胎增加得甚至更快。

And the Obama administration later became more cautious about challenging China with trade restrictions.

后来，奥巴马政府对利用贸易限制挑战中国的做法变得更加谨慎。

Any trade actions by Mr Trump would face limits.

特朗普采取的任何贸易行动都会面临限制。

This year, he mentioned imposing a tariff of 45 percent on all imports from China.

今年，他曾提出对来自中国的所有进口货物征收45%的关税。

But he later avoided specifics — and he has limited power to do so anyway.

但后来，他避免谈及细节，而且他也没有多大的权力可以这么做。

The law allows him to impose tariffs of no more than 15 percent, and for as long as 150 days, on all imports, unless a national emergency is declared.

法律允许他只能在最长150天的时间里，对所有进口货物征收最高15%的关税，除非宣布国家进入紧急状态。

Other laws allow him to impose tariffs on targeted goods.

其他法律规定，他只能对目标商品征收关税。

Should Mr Trump want to signal an aggressive stance quickly, he could move against imports of steel and aluminum from China.

如果特朗普想迅速发出姿态强硬的信号，他可能会对从中国进口的钢铁和铝采取行动。

The Obama administration has been preparing to file a World Trade Organization case against China over claims that it subsidized aluminum exports.

奥巴马政府一直以中国补贴铝出口为由，准备向世贸组织提起诉讼。

And the United States, Japan and the European Union already complain that Chinese government subsidies have produced a bloated domestic steel industry that they say dumps millions of tons of excess goods on world markets each year.

此外，美国、日本和欧盟已经提出抗议，称中国政府的补贴导致其国内钢铁行业产能过剩，每年向全球市场倾销数百万吨剩余商品。

China is more vulnerable given the sheer amount of stuff it sells to America.

鉴于其出口至美国的商品数量，中国更容易受影响。

For more than a decade, China has consistently exported about $4 worth of goods to the United States for each $1 of goods that it imports.

十多年来，中国每从美国进口价值一美元的商品，便向其出口大约四美元的商品。

Exports to the United States represent about 4 percent of the Chinese economy; American exports to China are only about two-thirds of 1 percent of the United States economy.

面向美国的出口占中国经济的大约4%，而对中国的出口在美国经济中所占的比例仅为1%的三分之二。

We don’t have many things in the toolbox for retaliation, because we export more than we import, said Mr He, the former Chinese commerce ministry official.

我们没有多少可以用来报复的手段，因为我们的出口规模大于进口规模，中国前商务部官员何伟文说。

Still, China could inflict pain on sensitive areas that provide American jobs, like Boeing’s jetliners.

但中国仍可以给一些为美国提供就业岗位的敏感领域造成痛苦，比如波音的喷气式客机。

Boeing declined to comment except to say, We congratulate President-elect Trump and newly elected members of Congress and look forward to working with them to make sure we continue to grow the global economy and protect our people.

波音拒绝对此予以置评，只是说，我们向候任总统特朗普与新当选的国会议员表示祝贺，同时期待与他们合作，确保我们能继续推动全球经济增长，保护我们的民众。

General Motors and Ford Motor consider China a big contributor to sales.

通用汽车(General Motors)和福特汽车(Ford Motor)视中国为一个销量贡献大国。

They mostly manufacture in China to supply the domestic market.

为了供应中国国内市场，他们主要在中国境内生产。

But much of the design and engineering work is still done in the United States.

但大量设计和工程工作仍在美国进行。

China could hurt the automakers by adopting domestic policies that help their big European rivals, notably Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz.

中国可能会通过采取有利于美国车企强大的欧洲竞争对手，尤其是大众(Volkswagen)和梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)的国内政策，来打击美国车企。

Other American companies may be less opposed to trade limits than in the past.

其他美国公司也许不会像过去那么反对贸易限制。

Some American companies have been struggling to sell in China.

一些美国公司一直难以在中国打开销路。

Beijing has steered contracts to Chinese telecommunications companies after Edward Snowden’s revelations about American intelligence gathering in China.

在爱德华•斯诺登(Edward Snowden)爆出美国在中国搜集情报后，北京把合同都给了中国的电信企业。

And Chinese state-owned enterprises have shifted much of their investment banking business from Wall Street to homegrown rivals.

此外，中国的国有企业也把大量投行业务从华尔街转移给了本土竞争对手。

American farmers have welcomed Chinese purchases, but it is unclear how badly they could be hurt by any trade action.

美国的农民欢迎中国购买，但尚不清楚任何贸易纠纷对他们的伤害可能会有多大。

Chicken meat, soybeans, corn and other foodstuffs are commodities traded in world markets, and farmers are often able to sell elsewhere.

鸡肉、大豆、玉米和其他食物是在全球市场上交易的大宗商品，农民通常能够把它们卖到其他地方去。

Chinese goods have long helped keep prices down for Americans.

对美国民众来说，中国商品长期以来帮助抑制物价。

But Chinese exports play a shrinking role in holding down prices as labor costs rise in China and as rivals like Indonesia, Vietnam and India expand manufacturing.

但随着中国国内人工成本攀升，且印尼、越南和印度等竞争对手的制造业扩张，中国的出口商品在抑制物价方面的作用正在减弱。

China’s biggest potential weapon is to disrupt the supply chains of multinationals by halting exports of crucial materials or components.

中国最大的潜在武器是通过暂停出口关键材料或零部件，中断跨国公司的供应链。

But that could damage China’s reputation as a reliable supplier.

但这可能有损中国作为一个可靠的供应国的名声。

I don’t think we will go that far at the moment, because there is a lot of room to negotiate, Mr He said.

我目前认为我们不会走到那一步，因为还有很大的谈判空间，何伟文说。

If we are forced too much, nothing can be excluded.

如果到了万不得已的时候，什么都可以考虑。