债台高筑 中国城市转寻私人投资

HONG KONG — The wide new boulevards that cut across parts of Weifang in eastern China are largely free of traffic, a quiet reminder of the coastal city’s big ambitions.

香港——这条簇新的大马路径直穿过中国东部城市潍坊，基本上没什么车，无声地彰显着这个沿海城市的雄心壮志。

“It’s empty here, and I always come here to dry my wheat,” said a 77-year-old farmer surnamed Zhang who, along with his wife and son, was spreading grain on a sidewalk in one of the city’s newer districts on a recent summer day.

“这里很空，我一直到这儿晒麦子，”77岁的农民张某说。最近的一个夏日，他和妻子、儿子在该市新区的人行道上铺散麦粒。

Weifang is quickly outgrowing its rural roots, and officials see a wave of urbanization reshaping the local economy for years to come. Across the city, plans are underway for billions of dollars of major public projects, including new highways, high-speed rail lines, water treatment plants, schools and health care facilities.

潍坊正在迅速改变它的农村性质，官员们认为城镇化浪潮将在未来几年改变当地经济。全市各地正在开展价值数十亿美元的大型公共项目，比如新公路、高速铁路、自来水处理厂、学校及卫生设施。

There is just one hitch: Weifang can’t pay for all the projects.

他们只有一个难题：潍坊无力承担所有项目的费用。

In the past, city officials would have turned to low-cost loans from state-owned banks, as the national government encouraged local spending to spur economic growth. But the Chinese leadership, worried about the country’s ballooning debt problem, is backing away from that strategy.

过去，市政府官员会通过国有银行获得低成本贷款，因为中央政府鼓励地方政府加大开支刺激经济增长。但中国领导层担心不断膨胀的债务问题，正在撤销这一策略。

Like hundreds of cities across China, Weifang is now wooing deep-pocketed private investors, both local and overseas, to help foot the bill for public infrastructure and services. Behind the spot where Mr. Zhang dries his wheat, a gleaming new hospital dominates the skyline, built in part with outside capital.

与全国数以百计的城市一样，潍坊正在努力吸引本地及海外财力雄厚的私人投资者，帮助政府支付建造公共基础设施和开展服务项目的费用。在张某的晒谷场后面耸立着一栋崭新的医院大楼，修建这栋参天大楼的资金部分来自外部。

“If the project suits the public-private partnership model, we will try to fund it that way,” said Liu Xitian, the deputy director of Weifang’s finance bureau. “The next step will be to improve public services. We will release lots of projects in that area.”

“适合搞PPP（public-private partnership model，公共私营合作模式——编者注）的我们就会通过PPP这种方式来融资，”潍坊市财政局副局长刘锡田说。“下一步就是提升公共服务，[展开]提升性的服务项目，下一步会有很多项目推出。”

The push reflects the precarious financial state of many cities and towns.

这种行动反映了很多城镇不稳定的财务状况。

Although the country escaped the worst of the global financial crisis six years ago, it did so on the back of a borrowing binge by local governments, which spent heavily on new but often unprofitable infrastructure projects. Now, many local governments are mired in debt.

虽然中国在六年前避开了最为严重的全球金融危机，但当时是靠地方政府大量借贷，用于修建全新但通常无利可图的基础设施。如今，很多地方政府深陷债务泥潭。

In Weifang, a city known for seafood processing and an annual kite-flying festival, rapid urbanization over the last decade has saddled the local government with debts totaling 88.4 billion renminbi, or $14.2 billion, as of June 2013, the most recent data available.

在潍坊这个以海鲜加工和一年一度的风筝节而闻名的城市，过去十年快速的城镇化进程给当地政府带来了大量债务，截至2013年6月，潍坊政府的总债务为884亿元人民币，这是可以获得的最新数据。

Since 2007, China’s overall local government debt has risen at an annual rate of 27 percent. It now totals almost $3 trillion, according to estimates from the consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

自2007年以来，中国地方政府总债务的年增长率达到了27%。根据咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey & Company)的估计，地方政府债务总额目前接近三万亿美元（约合18.6万亿元人民币）。

Companies, too, have gorged on cheap credit in recent years. Altogether, China’s total debt stands at 282 percent of its gross domestic product — a high level that raises the risk of a financial crisis should borrowers prove unable to repay and a wave of defaults ensue.

公司近些年来也获得大量低息贷款。中国的总债务是国内生产总值的282％，如此高的债务水平，一旦借款人最终无法偿还贷款，可能引发金融危机和违约浪潮。

It has created a conundrum for the country. China’s leaders want to wean the country from this debt-fueled growth model. But they also need to continue stimulating the economy, particularly at a time when growth is slowing.

这给中国带来了一个难题。中国领导人希望中国摆脱这种依赖债务推动经济增长的模式。但他们还需要继续刺激经济发展，特别是在增长放缓的时期。

Part of Beijing’s solution has been to help local governments lower their borrowing costs through refinancing. Local government-controlled companies that are struggling to pay bonds are being encouraged to exchange them for new loans at lower interest rates from state-run banks. China’s Ministry of Finance recently expanded this local government debt refinancing program to 3 trillion renminbi, or nearly $500 billion, up from 1 trillion renminbi just a few months ago.

北京的部分解决方案是通过再次融资帮助地方政府降低借贷成本。由地方政府控制的难以偿还债券的公司被鼓励以债券作为交换条件，获得国有银行提供的利率较低的新贷款。中国财政部最近将地方政府债务再融资计划的规模增加至三万亿元人民币，而几个月前这一计划的规模只有一万亿元人民币。

China has also begun a national campaign to encourage private investment in local infrastructure projects.

中国还开始在全国鼓励私人投资地方基础设施项目。

In May, the nation’s top economic planning agency released a list of more than 1,000 projects worth 2 trillion renminbi that local governments across the country are seeking to finance with outside investment. Analysts estimate that is on top of roughly 1,500 other projects worth 3 trillion renminbi that had been previously announced by the local authorities.

今年5月，中国最高经济规划机构公布了一份包含1000多个项目的清单，这些项目总共价值两万亿美元人民币，全国各地的地方政府寻求获得外部投资来开展这些项目。此外分析人士估计，地方政府此前共公布了大约1500个项目，价值三万亿元人民币。

A decade ago, the MTR Corporation, the Hong Kong subway operator, was an investor in Beijing’s fourth metro line. Beijing had won the right to host the 2008 Summer Olympics and was expanding its transport network at a blinding pace.

十年前，香港地铁运营商港铁公司(MTR Corporation)是北京地铁4号线的投资方之一。当时北京赢得了2008年夏季奥运会的举办权，需要对交通网络进行大规模扩张。

By the time it opened in 2009, passenger flows on the new line were much higher and revenue much lower than either party had forecast. This prompted huge subsidy payments from the Beijing government to the MTR, which did not sit well with local officials.

4号线在2009年投入运行的时候，其客流量之大，营收之低，远出乎任何一方的预期。北京市政府需要为港铁公司提供巨额补贴，该市官员对此难以接受。

So city officials simply rewrote the contract. The new terms reduced subsidy payments to the MTR, and were on balance more favorable to the city government. MTR, as the minority shareholder, had little room to object.

因此北京市官员直接改写了合同。新的条款减少了对港铁公司的补贴，更加有利于北京市政府。作为少数股东，港铁公司几乎没有反对之力。

Ren Yuhang, general manager of the finance department at Beijing Infrastructure Investment, the city government company charged with financing subway investment, compared such deals to a marriage.

北京市基础设施投资公司是负责融资修建地铁的市政府公司，其财政部门总经理任宇航把这样的交易比作婚姻。

“It takes a lot of negotiation and compromise,” he said.

“这需要大量谈判和妥协，”他说。

Xie Hua, a deputy manager at the MTR in charge of business development in China, said local officials often failed to appreciate the long duration of rail partnerships, which can extend to 30 years. Also, some local officials tend to focus too narrowly on just getting money.

港铁公司负责中国业务发展的副经理谢华说，当地官员常常不能体会长期铁路合作关系的价值，这种关系可以持续30年之久。此外，一些地方官员往往把目光过于狭隘地集中在赚钱上。

Foreign investors bring expertise and they want a say in how a project is run, but local officials often reply that their “biggest problem right now is funding,” Mr. Xie said. “The two sides have mismatched solutions.”

境外投资者带来了专业知识，也希望对项目运营拥有一定的话语权。不过，地方官员对此的回答往往是，他们“眼下最大的问题就是融资，”谢华说。“所以双方的解决方式并不对等。”

Such experiences, say analysts, could limit the appetite of foreign investors.

分析人士称，类似的经历或许会抑制境外投资者的胃口。

“The initial wave of all these projects definitely is going to be more suited to the local players,” said Stephen Ip, a partner and the head of government and infrastructure business at KPMG China, based in Shanghai. Foreign investors “can’t really make the leap of faith at the moment.”

“第一批这样的项目肯定是更适合当地的参与者，”驻上海的毕马威中国(KPMG China)政府机构和基建行业主管合伙人叶伟成(Stephen Ip)表示。境外投资者“目前并不能放手一搏”。

In Weifang, the local government has a list of nearly 70 projects it hopes to finance through the private-partnership model, for a total investment of 124 billion renminbi — about a quarter of the city’s economic output.

在潍坊，地方政府列出了一个包含近70个项目的清单，希望通过公私合作模式帮它们筹集1240亿元人民币的总投资。这一金额大约相当于该市经济产出的四分之一。

Officials hope the money will help the city cope with rapid transformation. Farmland is giving way to new roads, rail lines and other large-scale infrastructure projects. A huge industrial park on the outskirts of town is busy with construction activity, but it is also dotted with symbols of previous booms that have fizzled.

官员希望，这笔钱能够帮助潍坊应对快速的变化。农田正让位于新的道路和铁路线等大规模基础设施建设项目。郊区有一座大型工业园，建设工作开展得如火如荼。不过，这里也不时可以看到之前的几轮开发热潮消退后留下的痕迹。

Part of the idea behind bringing in private investment is to help offset a slowdown in other parts of the local economy, including real estate. Evidence of the property market slump can be seen in half-finished projects in the same industrial park, like Jinhe Aristocratic Family, a luxury housing development.

引入私人投资的部分想法是要帮忙缓解地方经济中其他一些领域的放缓，包括房地产业。在这座工业园里，就能通过停工的项目看到楼市滑坡的证据，比如豪华公寓开发项目“顺德·金和世家”。

The six-tower complex was supposed to be completed this year, but the developer ran out of money. Dormant construction cranes tower over the site. Wild grass has since overtaken much of the freshly cleared earth.

这片由六栋高楼组成的住宅区本应今年完工，却遭遇了开发商资金枯竭的问题。工地上的起重机处于闲置状态。不久前清理的土地上，不少地方长了野草。

“If you are interested, I would suggest you purchase after the construction restarts,” said a lone security guard living at the Jinhe site, declining to give his name.

“如果想买，要我说最好等到重新开工以后，”工地上唯一的那名保安说。他不愿透露自己的姓名。

The falling property market has cut deeply into local coffers. In Weifang, land sales, which account for a major share of the city’s income, plunged 40 percent last year, according to figures from Deutsche Bank.

楼市下滑对地方财政影响巨大。在潍坊，卖地的进账占到全市财政收入的一大块。然而，根据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)提供的数据，该市去年的卖地收入大降40%。

Weifang officials had some early success in attracting private capital.

在吸引私人资金方面，潍坊官员取得了一些初步成就。

The new hospital, built with funding from Sunshine Insurance, a company based in Beijing, aims to be the biggest medical facility in Shandong Province. The insurer, which this year spent $230 million to buy the Baccarat Hotel in New York, has local connections. The company’s chairman, Zhang Weigong, is a native of Weifang.

那家新医院的建设资金来自阳光保险集团，意图成为山东省内规模最大的医疗机构。阳光保险的总部位于北京，今年耗资2.3亿美元收购了纽约的巴卡拉酒店(Baccarat Hotel)。公司与潍坊有一定的联系——董事长张维功就来自这里。

One of the biggest projects in Weifang is the local section of a new high-speed rail line connecting the major cities of Jinan and Qingdao. It is the country’s first high-speed rail project to secure private financing.

潍坊规模最大的项目之一是一段高铁线路。这条高铁将把两大城市济南和青岛联接起来，是中国首个得到私人融资的高铁项目。

But the definition of private is a bit stretched, in some cases.

不过，在部分情况下，“私人”的概念有些扩大了。

The Weifang government is responsible for 4 billion renminbi of the 26 billion renminbi budget for the 147-kilometer, or 90-mile, portion that will run through the city. The main outside investor is the Postal Savings Bank of China, a sprawling, state-owned bank. Temasek Holdings, the Singapore state investment firm, has also agreed to participate in funding at the provincial level, according to local officials.

这条铁路线的潍坊段长147千米，预算260亿元人民币，而市政府将提供40亿元。主要的外部投资者是庞大的国有企业中国邮政储蓄银行。根据地方官员的说法，新加坡的国有投资公司淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)也同意参与该项目的省级融资。

Even if the enthusiasm of private investors fails to keep pace, the force of urbanization seems unlikely to slow.

就算私人投资者的热情滞后，城镇化的力量也似乎不可阻挡。

In the sleepy village of Beiying on the outskirts of Weifang, a farmer who gave his surname as Pei is worried that the rail project will force him out of his home.

在潍坊郊外宁静的北营村，一名裴姓农民担心，高铁项目会让他失去家里的房子。

“I was born in this village and have worked as a farmer my whole life,” said Mr. Pei, 50, who grows fruits and vegetables a few hundred yards from where construction on the rail line will start soon. “What else can I do if I don’t farm?”

“我生在村里，在这里当了一辈子农民，”50岁的老裴说。他种植蔬果的地方离马上就要开工的高铁工地只有几百米。“不种地我还能干什么去？”