G20会议公告背后的博弈

Officials from Europe and other leading economies are mounting a campaign to draw Donald Trump and his administration towards the mainstream on trade and currency policy ahead of international economic talks in Germany this week.

欧洲和其他主要经济体的官员们在本周德国国际经济会议召开之前展开造势，试图将唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)及其政府在贸易和货币政策上的立场拉回主流。

Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, will meet fellow Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in the spa town of Baden-Baden beginning on Friday. The gathering comes amid uncertainty over Mr Trump’s anti-globalisation ethos and will be a test of international efforts to pull the US president away from the protectionist “America First” agenda he has set out ahead of G7 and G20 summits in May and July.

20国集团(G20)财长和央行行长会议将于本周五在德国温泉城巴登-巴登开幕。美国财长史蒂文姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin，上图）将与出席峰会的其他财长和央行行长会晤。此次G20会议在围绕特朗普反全球化信条的不确定性中召开，它将对国际社会的如下努力构成考验：在5月的七国集团(G7)峰会和7月的G20峰会召开之前，让这位美国总统放弃他已启动的“美国优先”保护主义议程。

Mr Mnuchin is expected by many G20 officials to strike a more emollient tone than the US president — as he has in recent public statements over China and the US dollar. This contrasts with Mr Trump's more aggressive complaints about Beijing as a “grand champion” of currency manipulation and the dollar’s high valuation.

许多G20官员预计，姆努钦的语气将比特朗普和缓——姆努钦最近关于中国和美元的公开言论，就比特朗普更为咄咄逼人的抱怨要和缓。特朗普将中国称为汇率操纵的“总冠军”，并抱怨美元的高估值。

But wrangling over the contents of the post-meeting communiqué highlights the tensions between the Trump administration and other G20 members who are fighting to preserve longstanding language opposing protectionism.

但围绕会议后公告的争吵突显出特朗普政府和其他G20成员国之间的紧张关系，后者坚决主张维持长期以来的反保护主义基调。

Nathan Sheets, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who until January served as undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury, said: “The two issues that will be front and centre are the administration’s view on international trade and their thinking on exchange rates.”

彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)访问学者纳森希茨(Nathan Sheets)表示：“将会成为焦点的两个问题是，美国政府对国际贸易的看法以及对汇率的想法。”希茨此前担任美国财政部负责国际事务的次官(undersecretary)，于今年1月卸任。

Early drafts of the communiqué omitted some previous reference to avoiding protectionism and competitive currency devaluations. Asked about this on Thursday, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said formal commitments to open borders and floating exchange rates were the “pillar of the stability that has accompanied world growth in the past 20 years”.

G20公告初稿删除了早先提及避免保护主义和竞争性货币贬值的内容。在上周四被问及这一点时，欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥德拉吉(Mario Draghi)表示，对开放边境和浮动汇率的正式承诺是“伴随过去20年全球增长的稳定局面的支柱”。

By Friday evening, however, the section on avoiding competitive devaluations was back in the document, although there was no agreement on what the draft communiqué would say about trade.

然而，到上周五晚间，避免竞争性贬值的内容又回到了文件中，尽管各方仍未就公告草案关于贸易的表述达成一致。

Some senior officials said a move by the US to sign up to past G20 pledges to resist protectionism should in some ways be easy for a Trump administration that has been eager to calm fears among allies. “They are not saying they are protectionist. [New US officials] are saying ‘No, no, no. We want free trade, but we won’t be taken advantage of’,” said a senior international official.

一些高级官员表示，让美国同意过去那些抵制保护主义的承诺，从某种方面对渴望缓解盟友担忧的特朗普政府并不困难。一位国际高官表示：“他们并不说自己是保护主义者。（新一届美国官员）说的是，‘不，不，不。我们想要自由贸易，但别想占我们便宜’。”

A report on the state of the global economy prepared by the International Monetary Fund for the Baden-Baden gathering is expected to repeat recent warnings that any move toward protectionism would hurt a global economy caught in a fragile recovery.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)为巴登-巴登会议准备的全球经济状况报告，预计会重复最近的警告，即任何保护主义举措都将伤害脆弱复苏的全球经济。

Mr Mnuchin has demanded the IMF engage in frank and candid analysis of other countries’ exchange rate policies amid concerns the US is being hurt by other nations’ practices.

在一些人担心美国正受到他国做法伤害之际，姆努钦要求IMF对其他国家的汇率政策进行坦率而公正的分析。

Conflicting signals from the Trump administration have left overseas partners scrambling to anticipate US economic policy choices. One official with knowledge of the G20 discussions said: “There is no immediate crisis, and that gives them [the US] some breathing space. But the rest of the world would like to see where they stand.”

特朗普政府发出的相互矛盾的信号，让海外伙伴竞相预测美国的经济政策选项。一位了解G20讨论内容的官员表示：“没有迫在眉睫的危机，这给了他们（美国）一些缓冲空间。但其他国家希望看到他们的立场。”

Mr Mnuchin will enter talks with a skeleton team and policies that are in the early stage of formation. Mr Trump has yet to name a head of international affairs at the US Treasury, making cross-border engagement more difficult.

姆努钦将会带着最基本的人马和仍处于形成初期阶段的政策参与谈判。特朗普迄今还没有任命美国财政部负责国际事务的官员，这让跨境事务更难以开展。

Matthew Goodman, a former White House official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Mr Mnuchin appeared to be in the mould of James Mattis, US defence secretary, and Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, suggesting he may attempt to offer a “reassuring face” to America’s partners.

白宫前官员、如今任职华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的马修古德曼(Matthew Goodman)表示，姆努钦似乎与美国国防部长詹姆斯马蒂斯(James Mattis)和国务卿雷克斯蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)是一类人，暗示姆努钦可能会尝试向美国的合作伙伴摆出“抚慰表情”。

“He seems to have more conventional views based on what he has said so far — this will be a test of that hypothesis,” Mr Goodman said.

古德曼说：“从他到目前为止的言论来看，他似乎有着更为传统的观点——眼下将是对那种假设的考验。”

However, he added: “It will offer some comfort to G20 partners, but perhaps not complete comfort. It will leave some doubt as to what the real position of the administration is going to be specific issues they are dealing with.”

然而，他补充称：“这将向G20的伙伴们提供一些慰藉，但或许不会完全令人放心。依然会有一些人怀疑特朗普政府在……他们处理的特定问题上的……真实立场会是什么。”

On Friday, one senior US official signalled the Trump administration had yet to whether the G20 should remain the pre-eminent forum for international co-operation, saying “we don’t have any predisposed position”.

上周五，一位美国高级官员暗示称，特朗普政府还没有就G20是否应该继续充当国际合作的主要论坛做出决定，他说，“我们没有任何预设立场”。

Host Germany is also unclear what the new US administration will bring and is braced for talks about its trade surplus with the US — something Peter Navarro, Mr Trump’s trade adviser, has denounced.

东道主德国也不清楚特朗普政府将会带来什么影响，并已准备好就其贸易顺差与美国展开谈判——美国贸易顾问彼得纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)谴责了德美之间的贸易顺差。

Wolfgang Schuble, German finance minister, has said he and Mr Mnuchin would discuss the usual range of topics as they get to know one another. But he also made clear that relationships were moving into unknown territory.

德国财长沃尔夫冈朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schuble)表示，他和姆努钦将会讨论通常范围的议题，逐步了解彼此立场。但他也明确表示，两国关系正走向未知领域。

“The election in the US had a lot of elements that were very unfamiliar — to put it politely — to people in Europe and in Germany and that we wouldn’t want to imitate,” Mr Schuble said. “The US voted, and we will work with the people they elected as well as possible. International co-operation will continue.”

朔伊布勒表示：“（婉转地说）美国的选举包含许多让欧洲人和德国人感到非常陌生、我们不会想要模仿的元素。美国举行了选举，我们将会尽力与他们选举出来的人合作。国际合作将会继续。”

Additional reporting by Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin

斯蒂芬韦格斯蒂尔(Stefan Wagstyl)柏林补充报道