中国农行坏账率大幅升高

China’s third-largest bank has reported its first annual fall in quarterly profits in three years as Bad loans rose by the most on record, an ominous sign for other big lenders due to report full-year results this week.

由于坏债出现创纪录增幅，中国第三大银行——中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)三年来首次报出季度盈利同比下滑。对于其他将在本周公布全年业绩的大银行来说，这不是个好兆头。

Analysts say the weaker than expected profit for Agricultural Bank of China reflects rising defaults amid an economic slowdown. China’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in 24 years last year, and recent data suggest a further deceleration in the early months of 2015.

分析师表示，农行盈利低于预期，反映出中国经济放缓过程中，违约现象增多。去年，中国国内生产总值(GDP)出现了24年来的最低增幅。最近的数据则显示，2015年头几个月中国经济进一步恶化。

AgBank said on Tuesday night that net income had fallen by 5 per cent in the last three months of 2014, the first annual decline in quarterly earnings since 2011.

周二晚农行表示，2014年最后三个月，该行净收入下跌了5%。这是自2011年以来，该行季度盈利首次同比下跌。

“I expect this will be the industry trend this year," said Zou Hengchao, bank analyst at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai. “Bad loans will rise everywhere. The bad economy is the main reason.”

上海民生证券(Minsheng Securities)银行分析师邹恒超表示：“预计这种状况会成为今年的业内趋势。坏债会全面增加。而经济低迷是主要原因。”

AgBank’s non-performing loans rose by Rmb21.5bn ($3.5bn), the biggest quarterly rise since the lender began disclosing quarterly figures ahead of its 2010 initial public offering. The bank’s NPL ratio stood at 1.54 per cent by the end of 2014, from 1.29 per cent three months earlier, also marking a record increase.

该季度农行的不良贷款增加了215亿元人民币（合35亿美元），这是自该行2010年上市前开始披露其季度数据以来的最大季度增幅。截止2014年底，农行不良贷款率为1.54%，高于三个月前的1.29%，增幅也创下了纪录。

The official NPL ratio for China’s entire banking system was 1.29 per cent as of the end of last year, the highest in more than four years. Analysts generally believe the true ratio may be higher, as banks can use various techniques to disguise their reported ratios.

去年底，中国整个银行体系的官方不良贷款率是1.29%，是逾4年里的最高比例。分析师普遍相信，由于银行能用各种手法掩饰对外公布的不良贷款率，真实的不良贷款率可能更高。

“Previously bad loans were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta but now they are spreading to the central and western regions,” said Mr Zou. The Yangtze River Delta is the highly developed region comprising Shanghai and the surrounding provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu.

邹恒超表示：“过去，不良贷款集中于长江三角洲，如今它们正向中西部地区扩散。”长江三角洲是中国高度发达地区，包括了上海市及其周边的浙江和江苏省。

The NPL rise at AgBank came despite aggressive disposals and write-offs of dud loans over the past year. China Merchants Securities Hong Kong estimates that the bank’s gross NPL formation ratio — which adjusts for disposals and write-offs — jumped to 1.64 per cent in the fourth quarter from 0.68 per cent three months earlier.

尽管农行过去一年里大举处置与核销不良贷款，但坏账率仍在上升。招商证券(香港)(China Merchants Securities Hong Kong)估计，该行总的不良贷款生成率（gross NPL formation ratio，指将被处置与核销的不良贷款包括在内算出的比例）已从三个月前的0.68%跃升至第四季度的1.64%。

Manufacturing, real estate, wholesale and retail were the sectors hardest hit, a pattern likely to show up at other major banks.

坏账出现最多的是受经济放缓打击最大的制造业、房地产、批发和零售产业，这种状况在其他主要银行的财报中可能也会有所体现。

Bank of China reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon, with the country’s two biggest lenders — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank — to follow on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

中国银行(Bank of China)于周三下午公布财报。而中国最大的两家银行——中国工商银行(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)和中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)——则会紧随其后，在周四和周五分别公布财报。

Reflecting rising credit risk, AgBank’s loan-loss provisions rose 28 per cent for the full year.

农行全年贷款亏损拨款增加了28%，反映出信贷风险的增长。

Signs of deteriorating asset quality are also showing up in unexpected places. Much of AgBank’s profit decline was the result of a 27 per cent annual increase in operating expenses for the quarter, which outpaced a robust 14 per cent rise in operating income.

此外，资产品质的恶化还出现在意想不到的地方。农行盈利下跌，很大原因是该季度运营开支同比增长27%，超过了其运营收入14%的强劲增长幅度。

Barclays bank analysts attribute the higher expenses to more provisions for off-balance-sheet items such as guarantees and commitments. Such provisions soared by 997 per cent for the full year.

巴克莱银行(Barclays)分析师将农行开支的增长归因于担保和委托等表外项目拨款的增长，农行这类拨款全年激增了9.97倍。

Providing a bright spot, AgBank’s net interest margin ticked up slightly, bucking the long-term trend of narrowing margins as China’s government moves to liberalise deposit rates. Bankers expect funding costs to rise as rate liberalisation forces greater competition for depositors.

随着中国政府着手放开存款利率，银行净息差存在不断收窄的长期趋势，然而农行的净息差却略有上升，这是其财报中的一处亮点。银行业人士预计，随着利率放开使得银行揽储压力增大，资金成本将会升高。

But the relief on margins may be shortlived. The impact of two rate cuts in late November and early March — as well as parallel moves to free up deposit rates — was largely absent from fourth-quarter results.

不过，农行净息差上升可能只是短期现象。去年11月底和今年3月初，中国央行(PBoC)曾两次降息，同时放宽了存款利率浮动区间。这些举措的影响基本上没有在农行第四季度财报中体现出来。

Additional reporting by Ma Nan in Shanghai

Ma Nan上海补充报道