中国股灾会殃及苹果 Apple in China core market

Is Apple recession-proof? After it launched the iPhone in 2007 sales soared for years, unaffected by the global financial crisis. But the recent market panic in China has spooked Apple shareholders. Last week the share price seemed to be moving in tango with the gyrations of the Shanghai stock market.

苹果(Apple)能抵御衰退的冲击？2007年推出iPhone之后，多年来苹果的销售急剧增长，没有受到全球金融危机的影响。然而，中国近期的市场恐慌却吓到了苹果的股东。上周，苹果的股价似乎在随着上海股市一同震荡。

China is Apple’s most important market. Among US companies, Apple is one of the most exposed to China. More than half of Apple’s growth and 30 per cent of sales came from China in the latest quarter. The Apple Watch, released in April, has certain editions aimed squarely at Chinese consumers (yellow gold with auspicious red leather band, yours for $17,000).

中国是苹果公司最重要的市场。在美国企业中，苹果是最依赖中国市场的企业之一。在最近一个季度中，苹果一半以上的增长和30%的销售额来自中国。今年4月发布的Apple Watch，有几款是专门针对中国消费者的（比如配有象征吉祥的红色皮制表带的黄金版，掏出1.7万美元就归你了）。

In the near term, Chinese stock market panic will not translate into missed sales forecasts. Results for the quarter ending on June 28, to be announced next week, will not include the most jittery weeks. In the longer term Chinese consumer sentiment may see an impact. Apple’s core demographic, middle- and upper-class consumers, are those most likely to be hit by the market meltdown.

在近期内，中国股市的恐慌不会导致苹果无法实现销售预期。苹果将于下周公布截止6月28日这一季度的财报，该财报不会涵盖中国股市最紧张的几周。在较长的时期内，或许可以看出中国消费者的情绪受到了一些影响。苹果的核心顾客是中、上阶层的消费者，这些人最有可能受到股市暴跌的冲击。

Apple expects growth to continue; the company has reportedly ordered a record number of units of the new version of the iPhone 6, due for release this year. Analysts anticipate growth too. Credit Suisse just raised earnings estimates, citing strong iPhone sales and Asian demand. With expectations running high, the market would be unpleasantly surprised if delivery were to fall short.

苹果预计业绩会继续增长。据报道，对于将在今年发布的新版iPhone 6，苹果向供应商所下的订单量刷新了纪录。分析师也预计苹果会继续实现业绩增长。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)以iPhone热卖、在亚洲需求旺盛为由，刚刚上调了对苹果盈利的估计。在各方预期如此之高的情况下，如果苹果的交货量达不到预期，市场将会感到惊诧。

The result of Chinese market panic is uncertain, then. This is not: Chinese consumers have more smartphone choice than ever before. When the iPhone weathered the US recession in 2008, it was one of a kind. Today there are plenty of cheaper smartphones with similar functionality to the iPhone. Apple dominates the luxury end of the market, in China and around the world, but its brand is about to face a new test. No company is ever recession-proof.

中国股市的恐慌导致的结果是无法确定的。然而，有一点却是确定无疑的：中国消费者在购买智能手机时的选择比以往任何时候都多。2008年iPhone在美国衰退中安然无恙，当时它是独一无二的。如今，大量更廉价的智能手机都能提供与iPhone类似的功能。在中国以及全世界，苹果是高端市场中的领军者，但是其品牌正要面临一场新的考验。没有哪个企业能够永远不受衰退的影响。