中国债券再爆违约 突显信贷风险

A fertiliser producer in north China will default on bond payments on Thursday, the latest casualty of a slowing economy and rampant overcapacity in commodity sectors including basic chemicals.

中国北方一家化肥生产商本周四到期的债券偿付发生违约，成为经济放缓和大宗商品行业（包括基础化学品）严重产能过剩的最新伤亡者。

Defaults have contributed to falling Chinese bond prices in recent weeks, as well as a widening of the spread between safe government bonds and low-rated corporate notes. Traders said that as the implicit guarantee gradually fades, investors were paying more attention to corporate fundamentals.

近几周，违约加剧了中国债券价格下跌，促使安全的政府债券和评级较低的公司票据之间的息差扩大。交易员们表示，随着隐性担保逐渐失效，投资者更加关注企业基本面。

“Problems at Nailun were well known, so this is no surprise. But the overall trend is forcing the market to rethink their assumptions,” said a bond trader at a small bank in Shanghai.

“奈伦的问题是众所周知的，所以这一事态并不令人意外。但总的趋势正迫使市场反思其假设，”上海某家小银行的一名债券交易员表示。

Inner Mongolia Nailun Group was unable to meet interest and early redemption payments due on Thursday because of “operating difficulties”, the company said in a Shanghai Stock Exchange filing dated Wednesday. It was the 12th Chinese company to default on a domestic bond so far this year, compared with 19 for all of 2015, according to Wind Information.

内蒙古奈伦集团(Inner Mongolia Nailun Group)在周三提交给上海证交所的一份公告中表示，该公司无法筹足资金偿付周四应付的利息及回售款项，原因是“公司经营困难”。万得资讯(Wind Information)的数据显示，这是今年以来第12家在国内债券上违约的中国公司，而2015年全年有19家公司违约。

China’s overall debt hit a record high of Rmb163tn ($25tn), or 237 per cent of GDP, at the end of March, according to Financial Times calculations based on official data. Growth slipped to 6.7 per cent in the first quarter, down from 6.9 per cent in 2015.

英国《金融时报》根据官方数据进行的计算显示，中国的总债务在3月底触及163万亿元人民币（合25万亿美元）的创纪录高位，相当于GDP的237%。同时首季经济增长下滑至6.7%，低于2015年的6.9%。

Nailun Group sold Rmb800m ($123m) in seven-year bonds in 2011 that carried an option for investors to redeem the notes at the end of the fifth year, which is Thursday. More than Rmb700m worth of bonds were submitted for redemption, according to Thomson Reuters data. An interest payment is due the same day.

奈伦集团在2011年发售8亿元人民币（合1.23亿美元）的7年期债券，投资者在第五年末（也就是本周四）有回售选择权。根据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的数据，价值超过7亿元人民币的债券的持有人选择回售。同日还有一笔利息应付。

Defaults were once unheard of in China’s domestic bond market, where most issuers are state-owned enterprises and investors widely perceived all publicly issued debt as carrying an implicit government guarantee. Privately owned Chaori Solar became the first domestic default in March 2014, and last April power-equipment maker Baoding Tianwei Group became the first SOE to default. Since then, several other state groups have also missed bond payments.

违约在中国国内债券市场曾经是闻所未闻的，该市场的多数发行人是国有企业，投资者普遍认为所有公开发行的债务都带有隐性的政府担保。私有的超日太阳能(Chaori Solar)在2014年3月成为中国国内首家违约发行人，去年4月电力设备制造商保定天威集团(Baoding Tianwei Group)成为首家违约的中国国有企业。自那以来，还有数家国有集团也发生了债券违约。

While some defaulting issuers eventually receive government bailouts, China’s cash-strapped local governments have become less willing to rescue failing companies. Analysts say the relatively muted impact of recent defaults have also demonstrated to officials that individual incidents are unlikely to trigger systemic risk.

虽然一些违约的发行人最终获得政府救助，但资金紧张的中国地方政府已变得不那么愿意解救失败的公司。分析师们表示，近期违约的相对温和的影响也让官员们看到，个别事件不太可能引发系统性风险。

Analysts expect further defaults this year as credit quality worsens. Rating agencies have issued 49 downgrades of domestic bonds so far this year, compared with 126 in 2010, according to Wind data that include multiple downgrades of the same bond.

分析师们预计，随着信贷质量恶化，今年还将发生更多违约。万得资讯的数据显示，今年迄今，评级机构已对国内债券作出49次评级下调，而2010年全年有126次评级下调（这些数字包括同一债券的多次下调）。

Nailun said it was working to raise funds to repay investors and that it would seek to restructure the debt. The company will announce a bondholders’ meeting within five days, it said.

奈伦表示，正在努力筹集资金偿还投资者，同时该集团将寻求重组债务。该公司称，将在五天内发布召开债券持有人会议的通知。