意大利公投可能引爆银行业危机

Up to eight of Italy’s troubled banks risk failing if prime minister Matteo Renzi loses a constitutional referendum next weekend and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalising them, officials and senior bankers say.

多名官员和资深银行人士表示，如果意大利总理马泰奥.伦齐(Matteo Renzi)在有关宪法改革的公投中失利，随之引发的市场动荡令投资者不敢对意大利的困境银行进行资本重组，那么，该国就有多达八家这样的银行面临倒闭风险。

Mr Renzi, who says he will quit if he loses the referendum, had championed a market solution to solve the problems of Italy’s EURO4tn banking system and avoid a vote-losing “resolution” of Italian banks under new EU rules.

伦齐曾表示，如果公投失败他将辞去总理一职。他此前支持以一种市场化解决方案解决意大利4万亿欧元银行体系面临的问题，避免根据欧盟(EU)新规则对意大利的银行进行会令选票流失的“清算”。

Resolution, a new regulatory mechanism, restructures and, if necessary, winds up a bank by imposing losses on both equity and debt investors, particularly controversial in Italy, where millions of individual investors have bought bank bonds.

清算是一种新的监管机制，它会通过将亏损同时转嫁给股权和债券投资者来重组银行，并在必要时对其清盘。这在意大利尤其具有争议，因为该国有数百万散户投资者买入了银行的债券。

The situation is being closely watched by financiers and policymakers across Europe and beyond, who worry that a mass failure of Italian banks could trigger panic across the eurozone banking system.

欧洲各国和其他地方的金融家和政策制定者正在密切关注这一局面，他们担心意大利的银行大规模倒闭可能引发整个欧元区银行体系的恐慌。

In the event of a “No” vote and Mr Renzi’s exit, bankers fear protracted uncertainty during the creation of a technocratic government. Lack of clarity over a new finance minister may lethally prolong market jitters about Italy’s banks. Italian lenders have more than halved in value this year on concerns about their non-performing loans.

一旦公投的结果是对宪法改革说“不”，导致伦齐辞职，银行人士担心在创建一个技术官僚政府期间将出现漫长的不确定性。新财长人选不明朗的状况，可能会致命地延长市场对意大利各银行的紧张不安。今年，由于担心意大利各银行的不良贷款，这些银行的市值已缩水一半以上。

Italy has eight banks known to be in various stages of distress: its third largest by assets, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, mid-sized banks Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Carige, and four small banks rescued last year: Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara.

意大利已知有八家银行处于不同阶段的困境，这些银行包括该国资产排名第三的西雅那银行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)；三家中等规模银行：维琴察大众银行(Popolare di Vicenza)、威尼托银行(Veneto Banca)及卡里奇银行(Carige)；以及四家去年受到救助的小银行：伊特鲁里亚银行(Banca Etruria)、CariChieti银行、马尔凯银行(Banca delle Marche)及CariFerrara银行。