美国干旱引发全球粮食危机警报

The world is facing a food crisis as the worst US drought in 50 years pushes agricultural commodity prices to record highs.

随着美国50年来最严重的旱情把大宗农产品价格推至创纪录高点，世界正在面临一场粮食危机。

Corn and soyabean prices surged yesterday, surpassing the peaks of the 2007-08 crisis that sparked food riots in 30 countries. Wheat prices are not yet at record levels but have rallied 50 per cent in five weeks, exceeding prices reached after Russia's 2010 export ban.

昨日玉米和大豆价格飙升，超出在30个国家引发粮食骚乱的2007-08年危机时的最高水平。小麦价格虽然尚未达到创纪录水平，但五周来已上涨50%，超出2010年俄罗斯实施出口禁令之后的价位。

The drought in the US, which supplies nearly half the world's exports of corn and much of its soyabeans and wheat, will reverberate well beyond its borders, affecting consumers from Egypt to China.

美国干旱引发的震荡，将远远超出其国境范围，影响到从埃及到中国的消费者，因为美国供应全球近一半的玉米出口以及相当大一部分大豆和小麦出口。

"I've been in the business more than 30 years and this is by far and away the most serious weather issue and supply and demand problem that I have seen by a mile," said a senior executive at a trading house. "It's not even comparable to 2007-08."

某家贸易公司的一名高管表示："我从业已经有30多年，这显然是我见过的最恶劣的天气，也是我遇到的最糟糕的供给问题。就连2007-08年的危机也不能与之相提并论。"

David Nelson, global strategist at Rabobank, said: "Today the [US crop] disaster is real, whereas to some degree the big run-up in prices in 2008 was speculatively driven."

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)全球策略师大卫?纳尔逊(David Nelson)表示："当前（美国的收成）灾难是实实在在的，而2008年农作物价格飙升在某种程度上是由投机推动的。"

In 2007-08, a spike in prices triggered food riots from Bangladesh to Haiti as the number of hungry people in the world surpassed 1bn. Economists point out that supplies of rice and to a lesser extent wheat – staples for the world's poorest people – remain relatively abundant, subduing prices.

2007-08年，价格飙升引发了从孟加拉国到海地的粮食骚乱，全球挨饿人口超过10亿。经济学家指出，当前大米以及（在较小程度上）小麦的供给相对充足，抑制了价格上涨，而大米和小麦是全球最贫困人口的主食。

However, Joseph Glauber, chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture, argued that the current situation was "far better" than 2008. "Prices are higher?.?.?.?there's no question about that, but we really had an extreme shortage of wheat in 2007-2008 and I don't see that at this point."

但美国农业部(USDA)首席经济学家约瑟夫?格劳贝尔(Joseph Glauber)辩称，当前的局势比2008年"好得多"。"价格比较高，这一点毫无疑问。但2007-08年时，小麦严重匮乏，而我现在没有看到这个问题。"

Justin Forsyth, chief executive of Save the Children, said that the rise in prices was likely to have an exaggerated effect on the world's poorest people. "Large numbers of people live very close to the edge," he said. "Failed rains and high food prices have tipped lots of people over the edge from being able to cope to not being able to cope."

"拯救儿童基金会"(Save the Children)首席执行官贾斯廷?福赛思(Justin Forsyth)表示，粮价上涨很可能对全球最贫困人口产生放大的影响。他说："很多人生活在边缘。天气干旱、粮价高企使很多人陷入绝境，从勉强糊口到朝不保夕。"

The USDA slashed its corn production forecasts last week by the most in a quarter of a century, and conditions continue to deteriorate in the worst US drought since 1956.

上周，美国农业部调低了玉米收成预期，降幅达25年来最高纪录。美国自1956年以来最严重的旱情继续恶化。

Meteorologists have warned that at least half of the US corn and soyabean belt will remain dry over the next fortnight, and traders have cut their estimates for the US corn crop by a further 8-15 per cent.

气象学家已经提出警告，未来两周内，美国玉米和大豆生产带至少有一半地区持续干旱，交易商已将美国玉米收成估算进一步调降8%-15%。

"I get on my knees every day and I'm saying an extra prayer right now," Tom Vilsack, US agriculture secretary, said on Wednesday.

美国农业部长汤姆?维尔萨克(Tom Vilsack)周三表示："我每天都祈祷天气好转，现在我再多祈祷一次。"

Prices for corn yesterday hit a record $8.16 a bushel, and traders believe prices could rise above $9 by next month unless the weather in the US dramatically improves.

玉米价格昨日达到每蒲式耳8.16美元的创纪录水平，交易商认为，如果美国天气没有出现大幅好转，下月价格可能涨至9美元上方。