谁来为MH370搜索行动买单

Investigators now look closer to solving the riddle of where missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 met its end. But they still have little idea why, so the search for the wreckage, and the all-important black box data recorder, goes on.

调查人员看上去正逐渐解开马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) MH370航班的最终下落之谜。但他们仍对失事原因几乎一无所知，因此，搜索飞机残骸以及最重要的黑匣子（飞行数据记录器）的行动继续进行。

So far, cost seems to have been no object. When Hishammuddin Hussein was asked recently how much money was being spent on the search, the Malaysian defence minister stressed it had not been an issue in discussions with other countries.

迄今成本似乎不是一个问题。当希沙姆丁•侯赛因(Hishammuddin Hussein)最近被问及各方在搜索行动中投入了多少经费时，这位马来西亚国防部长强调，那个问题从来没有与其他国家讨论过。

“Nobody, not the Malaysian government, none of our partners, have talked about dollars and cents,” he said on Saturday. “It is all about trying to find the aircraft. It did not even cross our minds.”

“没有人，无论是马来西亚政府还是我们的任何合作伙伴，曾经谈到美元和美分，”他在上周六表示。“一切努力是为了找到飞机。我们想都没想经费的事。”

But the longer the search continues, the more countries may have to consider their commitment to what could be a long haul – it took two years to find the black box in the case of Air France flight 447, which crashed into the Atlantic in 2009.

但是，搜索行动持续越久，就越可能会有一些国家不得不考虑自己对这场可能旷日持久的行动的承诺。以2009年在大西洋失事的法国航空公司(Air France) 447航班为例，有关方面花了两年时间才打捞起黑匣子。

Since MH370 vanished on March 8, Malaysia has received help from more than two dozen countries, including Australia, Japan, China, the UK, New Zealand and the US.

自MH370航班在3月8日消失以来，马来西亚已经从20多个国家，包括澳大利亚、日本、中国、英国、新西兰和美国等得到了帮助。

The Pentagon has set aside $4m, but that is expected to run out in early April. The US has not said how much more it would provide, but Rear Admiral John Kirby, Pentagon spokesman, last week said it would “stay with this as long as the Malaysians need our help”.

五角大楼已拨出400万美元，但这笔经费预计将在4月初用完。美国尚未表示还将出多少力，但五角大楼发言人、海军少将约翰•柯比(Rear Admiral John Kirby)上周表示，美国将“继续参与这场行动——只要马来西亚方面需要我们的帮助”。

China faces more pressure than most countries to stay the course because 153 of its nationals were on the flight, making the issue one of “political face”, says Rory Medcalf, an Asia security expert at the Lowy Institute.

澳大利亚罗维国际政策学院(Lowy Institute)的亚洲安全事务专家罗里•梅德卡夫(Rory Medcalf)表示，与大多数国家相比，中国面临更大压力，因为失事飞机上有153名中国公民，这要求中国坚持搜索，这个问题关系到中国的“政治面子”。

Beijing has sent 11 ships to what is known as the “southern corridor” – a search area that stretches from Malaysia to the southern Indian Ocean roughly 2,500km southwest of Perth. Two Chinese Ilyushin IL-76 transport aircraft arrived in Perth at the weekend, joining the international reconnaissance operations yesterday.

北京方面已向被称为“南部走廊”的搜索区域（从马来西亚延伸至南印度洋）派出11艘舰船，目前搜索力量集中在澳大利亚珀斯西南方向大约2500公里处的海域。中国的两架伊尔-76(Ilyushin IL-76)运输机周末飞抵珀斯，昨日加入国际侦察行动。

Premier Li Keqiang has said China will continue “as long as there is a glimmer of hope”. But although the search has become the country’s largest military operation beyond exercises, analysts say there are limits to what it would be able to do alone.

中国总理李克强曾表示，“只要有一线希望”，中国就应继续尽最大努力。但是，尽管这场搜索已成为中国除演习以外规模最大的军事行动，但分析人士表示，中国单独行动的能力是有限度的。

Gary Li, a Chinese military expert at IHS Maritime, said there were questions about sustainability if others cut their commitment, particularly since aircraft are more important for the search than ships.

IHS Maritime的中国军事专家加里•李(Gary Li)表示，如果其它国家削减自己的承诺，持续搜索就会出现问题，尤其是鉴于在这场搜索行动中飞机比船舶更重要。

“They have to rely on the goodwill of others,” said Mr Li. “If China goes completely alone, they have very, very few options other than using ships and satellites – a very scaled down version of what we have now.”

“他们必须依靠别国的善意，”加里•李说。“如果中国完全单干，他们除了使用船舶和卫星外，选择很少——那样的话，行动规模将远远小于我们目前所看到的规模。”

China has sent one Y-8 surveillance aircraft to Malaysia to fly search missions, but the aircraft does not have the range to reach the search area. While China could deploy the aircraft to Perth and fly missions from there, Mr Li said that would have security ramifications.

中国此前派出一架运-8侦察机到马来西亚执行搜索任务，但该机的航程使其无法到达新的搜索区域执行任务。尽管中国可以将该机转场至珀斯，从那里起飞执行任务，但加里•李表示，那么做会有安全后果。

“Any specialised Y-8 aircraft would run the risk of being analysed by other countries if it operated abroad, for very little in terms of search and rescue gain,” he said.

“任何运-8特种飞机如果在海外执行任务，都有受到别国分析的风险，而在搜救方面的获益很小，”他表示。

Japan has committed 113 personnel and five aircraft – even more than the US – to the search, said Masaru Sato, a Japanese foreign ministry spokesman. But he declined to say how much had been budgeted for the operation.

日本外务省发言人佐藤胜(Masaru Sato)表示，日本已向这场搜索行动投入113名人员和5架飞机——规模甚至超过美国。但他拒绝透露日本方面为这场行动编列了多少预算。

“The outlook for the search operations is yet to be decided. Japan will continue to extend as much assistance as possible.”

“搜索行动的前景仍有待明朗。日本将继续尽力提供协助。”

Mr Medcalf said that with the search focused on the southern Indian Ocean, where satellites have detected possible debris, Australia, which has played a key role, would be unlikely to walk away.

梅德卡夫表示，随着搜索集中在南印度洋（卫星在该处海域发现了疑似碎片），迄今扮演关键角色的澳大利亚将不太可能退出。

“Assuming that the search continues in the southern zone, the last countries to pull out will be Australia and China,” he said. Australia was involved “for the long haul”, said Mr Medcalf, partly because it had responsibility for search and rescue operations in the area, and also because Tony Abbott, the prime minister, last week revealed Australia had received “credible” leads from satellite images.

“假设搜索行动继续在南部走廊展开，最后退出的国家将是澳大利亚和中国，”他说。梅德卡夫称，澳大利亚已准备好投入长期行动，一方面是因为该国负有在这个地区展开搜救行动的责任，另一方面也是因为澳大利亚总理托尼•艾伯特(Tony Abbott)上周透露，该国从卫星图像得到了“可信的”线索。

A spokesman for Warren Truss, Australia’s transport minister, said there were no plans to end the search soon and that Australia would “take it one day at a time”.

澳大利亚交通部长沃伦•特拉斯(Warren Truss)的发言人表示，短期内没有计划结束搜索行动，澳大利亚将“走一步看一步”。

“We haven’t considered the costs,” he said. “We have an obligation to the passengers and crew and their families.”

“我们还没有考虑过成本，”他说。“我们对乘客、机组人员和他们的家人负有义务。”

Additional reporting by Jamie Smyth, Jeremy Grant and Julie Zhu

杰米•史密斯(Jamie Smyth)，杰里米•格兰特(Jeremy Grant)和朱莉(Julie Zhu)补充报道