世界杯是否抢走了澳门赌场生意

The FIFA World Cup has been blamed for a multitude of sins, but banks say draining Macau's casino takings is not one of them.

世界杯被指有无数宗罪，但银行从业人士表示，抢走澳门赌场的收入并不在其列。

Prior to the start of the tournament last month, analysts at investment banks -- perhaps with their minds turning towards the subject of football instead of their spreadsheets -- had speculated that the World Cup would sap numbers of gamblers in Macau.

上个月世界杯开赛之前，投行分析师曾猜测世界杯会造成澳门赌客人数减少。当时分析师们可能满脑子想的都是足球这个话题，而不是财务表格。

Sure enough, gross gaming revenues fell for the first time in five years during June. Takings declined 3.7% to 27.2bn Macau patacas compared with a year earlier, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau released on Monday.

确实，6月份博彩总收入出现五年来的首次下滑。据澳门博彩监察协调局(Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau)周一发布的数据显示，收入下滑至272亿澳元，较上年同期下降3.7%。

Does the dip in gambling revenues during the month of the tournament prove that football is the determining factor? Far from it, says Barclays. Instead, it's the fall in numbers of high-rollers -- a trend which preceded the start of the World Cup - that's really to blame.

世界杯当月博彩收入下滑，这是否证明足球是其中的决定性因素？据巴克莱(Barclays)称，远非如此。真正的原因是豪赌客人数减少，这一趋势在世界杯开赛之前就已经出现。

The high-spending VIP segment is tightly fought over by Macau's casinos, which have tie-ups with junket-operators to entice greater numbers of wealthy gamblers and may even offer lines of credit.

澳门的赌场激烈争夺一掷千金的VIP业务。澳门的赌场与中介人合作，吸引更多的有钱赌客，甚至可能向其提供信贷额度。

The bank believes the main factor driving the revenue slump comes from the VIP segment, which it estimates has seen 'double-digit percentage declines' as part of a trend that has been 'visible since April'.

巴克莱认为，造成澳门博彩收入下滑的主要原因在于VIP业务。巴克莱估计VIP业务收入的百分比降幅为两位数，这是4月份以来呈现出来的趋势的一部分。

'Mass revenues might have seen a marginal slowdown due to the impact from the World Cup, but we expect little impact and the impact to only be transient,' Barclays says.

巴克莱表示，大众业务收入可能因世界杯的影响而出现微幅下滑，但预计几乎不会带来什么冲击，即便有冲击，也是暂时的。

Standard Chartered agrees, arguing that the number of gamblers filling Macau casino floors -- and the amount they are prepared to gamble -- are more closely linked to the ebbs and flows of credit availability in the wider economy.

渣打(Standard Chartered)同意这一看法，认为澳门赌场的赌客数量（以及他们愿意投入的赌资）与整体经济中的信贷投放涨落密切相关。

Faster loan growth tends to filter through to stronger casino revenues with a six-month time lag, the bank says. That may reflect gamblers feeling more content to fritter away their earnings at the baccarat tables as the economy improves.

渣打称，更快的信贷增长往往会滞后六个月才能渗透转化为赌场的更强劲收入。这可能反映出，在经济改善的时候，赌客们更愿意在赌台上挥霍自己赚的钱。

'Our call at the beginning of the year [was that] consensus estimates on gross gaming revenues were way too high and that credit tightening in China was going to feed through -- and it has,' said Erwin Sanft, Standard Chartered's head of Hong Kong and China research.

渣打负责香港和中国内地研究的桑夫特(Erwin Sanft)说，我们今年年初的看法是，有关整体博彩收入的一致估计过高，且中国内地信贷收紧将会产生影响，事实也的确如此。

The bank thinks casino stocks -- which have fallen around 14% year-to-date compared with a largely flat Hang Seng Index - now look attractive, as China's incremental efforts to ease companies' access to credit add up to a big effect on the broader economy.

渣打认为，博彩类股现在颇具吸引力，因中国内地放宽企业信贷渠道的渐进举措累加起来对整体经济产生了很大的影响。博彩类股今年迄今下跌了14%左右，而恒生指数大致持平。

'Gross gaming revenues will remain weak in the next couple of months, and certainly going into the fourth quarter we'd expected things to start to improve again,' Mr Sanft added.

桑夫特补充说，未来几个月整体博彩收入仍将保持疲弱，而进入第四季度后我们无疑将期待形势开始再次改善。

Casino share prices have surged in trading today, after the People's Bank of China moved to ease loan-to-deposit limits for Chinese banks on Monday. Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd () gains 2.8% to HK$63.75 and Sands China Ltd () is up 1.8% to HK$59.60 at midday.

博彩类股周三飙升，之前中国央行周一出台政策放宽中资银行的存贷比限制。周三午盘，银河娱乐集团有限公司(Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.)涨2.8%，至63.75港元，金沙中国有限公司(Sands China Ltd.)涨1.8%至59.60港元。