翻身做主后 民主化为何会发生逆转

The tide of global democratic change, which at the start of the new millennium looked like an unstoppable force of nature, has been turned back over the last decade. How serious and prolonged this reversal turns out to be is open to question. What cannot be doubted is the direction of travel. In its most recent annual survey, the respected think tank Freedom House recorded a net decline in world freedom for the eighth year in a row. While political rights and civil liberties improved in 40 countries, they deteriorated in 54.

在新世纪的开端，全球民主化变革大潮似乎是一股势不可挡的自然力量，而在过去10年，这股浪潮却发生了逆转。逆转的严重程度和持续时间还未可知。但其行进方向却无可置疑。颇受尊敬的智库自由之家(Freedom House)最近发表的一份年度调查显示，世界的自由程度连续第8年净下降。尽管40个国家的政治权利和公民自由得到了改善，54个国家的情况却恶化了。

Perhaps the most vivid and significant example of this trend is the sight of a young, imperfect democracy – Ukraine – being brutalised by its large, authoritarian neighbour as the democratic world stands frozen on the sidelines. It isn’t a coincidence that Freedom House began to note the drift away from democracy a year after it downgraded Russia’s ranking from ‘partly free’ to ‘not free’. China already provided an attractive model of authoritarian modernisation for the power elites of developing nations, but Vladimir Putin went further by showing the world that democratisation is reversible.

这股逆流最鲜明和显著的例子或许是，年轻、尚不完美的民主国家乌克兰被庞大的威权主义邻国欺凌，民主世界却置身局外止步不前。自由之家在将俄罗斯的评级从“部分自由”调低到“不自由”一年后，开始注意背离民主的动向，这并非巧合。中国已经为发展中国家的权力精英提供了一个威权主义现代化的诱人模式，而俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)更进一步，向这个世界展现了民主化也是可以逆转的。

What he also provided is a more vocal and assertive expression of the new authoritarianism. Whereas policy-makers in Beijing have been careful to emphasise China’s peaceful rise and commercial priorities, their counterparts in Moscow are happy to present their approach as an open challenge to western norms and the prevailing world order. They have even given it a name – ‘sovereign democracy’. By associating sovereignty with the right to reject democratic standards, and inviting other countries to join them, Russia’s leaders have emboldened politicians across the world to impose their own forms of autocratic rule with the self-serving pretext that democracy needs to be ‘adapted’ to local conditions.

他还提供了一种描述新威权主义的更直白、更强硬的表达。北京的政策制定者谨慎地强调中国是和平崛起国家，商业是中国的优先事务，他们在莫斯科的同行则乐于将俄罗斯的策略描述成对西方准则和世界现行秩序的公开挑战。他们甚至将这种路线命名为“主权民主”(sovereign democracy)。俄罗斯的领导人们把主权和拒绝民主标准的权利联系在一起，并邀请其他国家加入俄罗斯的行列，这给世界各地的政客壮了胆，让他们敢在民主需要“适应”当地条件的自利借口下施行各自的威权统治。

The end of the presumption in favour of democracy that held sway in the decade following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall is at least one of the reasons why the Arab Spring failed to deliver the changes many hoped for. Unlike those who took power in central and eastern Europe after 1989, the leaders who replaced the old Arab despots haven’t look west for their inspiration. Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi was criticised for ruling by decree and trying to impose his own constitution. The response when it came was not a popular democratic revolution, but a military takeover and a sharp deterioration in human rights. The coup leader turned President in a rigged ballot this year.

曾在柏林墙(Berlin Wall)倒塌后的10年中占主导地位、支持民主的假设终结了，这至少是“阿拉伯之春”(Arab Spring)没有实现很多人期待的改变的原因之一。与1989年中欧和东欧上台的领导人不同，取代了阿拉伯过去那些暴君的新领导人并没有从西方寻求启发。埃及前总统穆罕默德•穆尔西(Mohamed Morsi)被批靠法令来统治国家，并且试图强施他自己制定的宪法。其引发的结果不是一场大众民主革命，而是军方接管权力和人权状况严重恶化。这场军方政变的领袖在今年通过一场被操纵的投票选举当上总统。

In Asia, negative trends away from political pluralism are evident in Malaysia and Indonesia. The biggest setback this year, however, has been in Thailand where the military seized power in another coup. As with the overthrow of Thaksin Shinawatra’s government eight years ago, the military-backed elite acted to defend its privileges with force. Thaksin’s supporters wanted to continue policies that trebled growth, halved poverty and increased welfare. They won two electoral mandates before the tanks returned to the streets. Unable to stop Thaksin and his allies at the ballot box, the military is unlikely to take any more risks. The restoration of civilian rule, if it comes, will probably take the form of a Putin-style ‘managed democracy’.

在亚洲，马来西亚和印度尼西亚表现出明显的背离政治多元主义的消极趋势。但今年最严重的倒退发生在泰国，军方也在一场政变中夺取了权力。就和8年前他信•西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)政府被推翻时一样，得到军方支持的精英群体通过武力来维护自己的特权。他信的支持者希望继续实行曾将经济增长率提高2倍、将贫困水平减半、提高了福利的政策。在军方的坦克再次出现在泰国街头之前，他们赢得了两次选举委任。军方无法在选举投票中阻止他信和他的盟友，因此不太可能再冒任何风险。如果泰国能再次恢复文官掌权，很可能会采取普京的“有控制的民主”模式。

A decade ago Africa was being hailed as democracy’s emerging success story. The spread of political freedom appeared to be steady and sustained with the practices of electoral democracy gradually taking root in a number of countries. Africa has continued to suffer coups and political violence, yet it is the erosion of democratic standards in some of the countries that seemed to be making progress that is perhaps most troubling. Kenya introduced repressive media restrictions last year, Uganda has been criticised for suppressing the opposition and Tanzania has seen a rise in extra-judicial violence by the security forces. Zambia won praise for the transfer of power that followed its 2011 presidential election. But the new government of President Michael Sata has responded to rising dissent by arresting opposition leaders, restricting NGOs and intimidating journalists. It is increasingly difficult to envisage a peaceful transfer of power next time.

10年前，非洲被誉为新近出现的民主化成功案例。政治自由的传播似乎稳定而持久，选举民主的做法逐渐在几个国家中生根。非洲依然遭受政变和政治暴力的困扰，但一些国家日益加重的民主标准遭侵蚀或许是最令人担忧的。肯尼亚去年出台了压制媒体的限制措施，乌干达因为镇压反对派被批评，坦桑尼亚的安保力量使用司法外暴力的情况增多。赞比亚曾因2011年总统大选后的权力和平移交而受到赞誉。但总统麦克尔•萨塔(Michael Sata)领导的新政府通过逮捕反对派领袖、限制非政府组织(NGO)和恐吓记者来应对增多的异议。越来越难以想象下一次的权力移交还能够和平进行。

Even in Europe democracy is under pressure. Turkey has continued to move further away from European standards with the use of force against street protests, increased internet censorship and a rise in the number of journalists behind bars. In a number of the new EU member states problems to do with judicial independence, media freedom and the rule of law remain unaddressed and may even be getting worse. In western Europe there has been a sharp rise in support for parties of the hard right that openly identify with Putin’s autocratic methods. As one former European foreign minister said to me recently, EU enlargement was meant to export democracy from west to east. Instead we seem to be in danger of importing populism and authoritarianism in the opposite direction.

即使在欧洲，民主也承受着压力。土耳其暴力镇压街头抗议、加强网络审查、关押更多记者，继续远离欧洲的标准。欧盟的几个新成员国在司法独立、媒体自由和法治方面的问题仍没有解决，甚至可能正在恶化。在西欧，支持强硬右派政党的人大幅增加，这些政党公开对普京的威权手段表示认同。一位欧洲的前外长最近告诉我，欧盟的扩大旨在将西方的民主出口到东方。事实正好相反，我们似乎有把东方的民粹主义和威权主义引入西方的危险。

Some welcome the newfound ability of countries to resist pressure to democratise as a sign that the era of western domination has come to an end. But the self-determination it brings is for those at the top, not the bottom. The only real beneficiaries are the predatory elites who are free to enrich themselves and monopolise power in the absence of popular constraint. Promoting democracy has become harder, yet the moral imperative to act remains. Accountable government is the best guarantee of healthy social and economic development as well as a fundamental right in and of itself. So the west has to regroup and find better instruments to turn the tide against the new authoritarianism.

一些人对这些国家抵住民主化压力的新能力表示欢迎，认为这是西方主导的时代走到尽头的标志。但是这种抵制带来的自决是那些处于顶端的人享受的，并不延及底层的人们。唯一的真正受益者是那些压榨人民的精英，他们能够在没有大众约束的情况下自由地中饱私囊，垄断权力。推行民主变得更为困难，然而推行民主依然有道德必要性。对人民负责的政府是社会和经济良性发展的最好保证，本身也是一项基本权利。因此西方应该思考并找到一个更好的手段扭转态势，对抗新威权主义。

The framework principle for thinking about a strategic response should be democratic internationalism. Liberal democracies should see each other as their most important partners, privileging inter-democracy relations and seeking new and deeper forms of institutional co-operation. Membership of the group should bring economic and political benefits, including preferential trade access, economic support, diplomatic solidarity and collective security guarantees. The goal should be to create within the international community a democratic block strong and successful enough to act as a pole of attraction for emerging nations.

思考应对策略的框架性原则应该是民主国际主义。自由主义的民主国家应该视彼此为最重要的伙伴，对民主国家间关系予以特别重视，寻找更深层次的机构合作新方式。成为民主集团的一员应该能带来经济和政治上的好处，包括贸易准入的优待、经济支持、外交上的团结和集体安保。目标应该是在国际社会中创建一个足够强大和成功的民主联盟以吸引新兴国家。

What Larry Diamond has called the democratic recession has its origins in the loss of confidence and political cohesion that followed the war on terror and the global financial crisis. It will continue until the west and like-minded nations around the globe are once again able to prove by example that democracy holds the key to success in the modern world. It is a task of renewal that has barely started.

拉里•戴蒙德(Larry Diamond)所称的“民主衰退”的根源是反恐战争和全球金融危机后发生的信心丧失和政治聚合。“民主衰退”将继续下去，直到西方和全球范围内持相似观点的国家能再一次用实例证明，民主掌握着在现代世界中成