美国需求带动中国出口激增

China’s trade surplus hit a fresh record high last month, as strong demand from the US lifted exports while sharp drops in commodity prices shrunk the value of imports.

中国上月的贸易顺差再次创下新高，来自美国的强劲需求提升了中国的出口，而大宗商品价格急剧下降使进口货值缩水。

The lunar new year holiday, which fell in late February this year, always distorts Chinese trade data, meaning that figures for the first two months give a better picture of the country’s economic performance. Exports rose 15 per cent in the first two months of the year, while the value of imports fell 20 per cent.

农历新年假期（今年落在2月下半月）难免扭曲中国的贸易数据，这意味着年初两个月的合计数字可提供有关中国经济表现的更准确画面。今年头两个月出口同比增长15%，而进口货值下跌20%。

“I don’t think 15 per cent export growth can be sustained. But on balance, it looks like a fairly decent performance,” said Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

“我不认为15%的出口增长可以持续。但总的来说，这看起来像是相当不俗的表现，”彭博研究机构(Bloomberg Intelligence)首席亚洲经济学家汤姆•奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)表示。

In renminbi terms, the trade balance rose to Rmb370.5bn ($59.1bn) from a previous record of Rmb366.9bn in January.

按人民币计算，2月份的贸易顺差升至3705亿元人民币（合591亿美元），高于上一个纪录高点，即1月份的3669亿元人民币。

While a surplus would normally translate into pressure for the Chinese currency to appreciate, in this case the market still sees China’s domestic economy as weak and expects monetary policy to remain loose, Mr Orlik said. “The pressure on the renminbi will remain downward.”

奥尔利克表示，虽然贸易顺差在正常情况下会转化为人民币升值压力，但就目前而言，市场仍然认为中国国内经济偏于疲弱，并预计货币政策将保持宽松。“人民币所受的压力仍将是下行的。”

Premier Li Keqiang set a lower GDP growth target of “around 7 per cent” in his speech to the annual legislative session, signaling that China expects an even sharper economic slowdown following the lowest growth in a quarter of a century last year.

中国总理李克强在全国人大年会发表讲话时，设定了“7%左右”的较低国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标，表明继去年录得25年来最低增长率之后，中国预期将出现更大幅度的经济放缓。

Exports for February alone surged 48 per cent, the Customs Administration said on Sunday, beating economists’ expectations.

中国海关总署周日宣布，2月份出口激增48%。这个数字超出了经济学家的预期。

“Demand from the advanced economies bodes well,” Li-Gang Liu, ANZ economist, wrote in a report. However, he expected the “weakening bias” towards the renminbi to remain.

“发达经济体的需求是个好兆头，”澳新银行(ANZ)经济学家刘利刚在报告中写道。不过，他预计人民币的“走弱倾向”将继续存在。

The drop in value of Chinese commodity imports is a blow for Australia. Total imports from China’s top iron ore supplier dropped nearly 28 per cent by value, although volumes of iron ore imports held broadly steady. Low-cost Australian iron ore has gained market share as plunging prices make higher-cost mines uncompetitive, but a 45 per cent drop in Chinese coal imports has hurt miners in Australia.

中国大宗商品进口货值下降，对澳大利亚是一个打击。中国从其主要铁矿石供应国进口货物的总值下降了近28%，尽管铁矿石进口量大致保持稳定。随着价格暴跌使得成本较高的铁矿失去竞争力，低成本的澳大利亚铁矿石扩大了市场份额，但中国煤炭进口下降45%打击了澳大利亚矿商。

Crude oil imports have steadied after record volumes at the end of last year built expectations that China would see the steep drop in international crude oil prices as a chance to fill strategic reserves more cheaply. China imported about 6.7m barrels a day of crude oil in the first two months of the year, down from December’s record 7.15m b/d.

去年底中国原油进口量达到创纪录水平，令人预期中国将国际原油价格暴跌视为一个廉价补充战略储备的良机。如今中国的原油进口量已经企稳。今年头两个月，中国平均每日进口大约670万桶，低于去年12月创纪录的每日715万桶。