背债走出去的中国国企 China's world of debt
The warnings are clear for ChemChina. The company behind China Inc’s biggest outward investment bid will be hoping to avoid the unhappy experiences suffered by some of the country’s earlier trailblazers.
对中国化工(ChemChina)来说，警示信号很清楚。作为“中国公司”(China Inc)史上最大对外投资的发起者，这家企业将希望避免中国一些早期开拓者的不愉快经历。
The state-owned oil company Cnooc, for example, ran into problems after it paid a record $15bn in 2013 for Nexen, one of Canada’s largest oil firms. Cnooc began with good intentions, paying a 60 per cent premium to Nexen’s share price, only to suffer from the prolonged slump in global oil prices. A huge pipeline spill and a retreat from promises to safeguard Canadian jobs — it fired senior Nexen executives and laid off hundreds of staff — have further dented goodwill around the deal. Investments by other Chinese stalwarts have also hit turbulence, falling at regulatory hurdles or unravelling for commercial reasons.
比如，2013年国有的中海油(Cnooc)付出创纪录的150亿美元收购加拿大最大石油公司之一尼克森(Nexen)后遭遇了麻烦。中海油一开始怀着良好的意愿，以高出股价60%的报价买下了尼克森，却想不到遭遇全球油价的持续低迷。一起大规模管道泄漏事故和中方未能信守诺言保障加拿大的工作岗位——尼克森数名高管被解雇，数百名员工遭裁员——进一步削弱了围绕这笔交易的良好意愿。其他中国国有企业的投资也遇到了麻烦，或是跨不过监管方面的障碍，或是因为商业原因不了了之。
“Chinese investment overseas is a double-edged sword,” says Derek Scissors, of the American Enterprise Institute. The outward embrace of China Inc raises a series of challenges for target companies and countries, he adds. Common problems arise from a mismatch of regulatory systems, a clash of corporate cultures and commercial miscalculations.
“中国的海外投资是一把双刃剑，”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的史剑道(Derek Scissors)说。他补充道，“中国公司”的海外投资给目标企业和国家带来了一系列挑战。常见问题源自监管制度不同、企业文化冲突和商业方面的误判。
China is not alone in having deals that hit problems — it happens to US and European companies also. But increasingly the issue for Chinese deals is debt. Analysts say that a surge in the indebtedness of corporate China since 2009 has meant that many of its largest companies are looking for acquisitions abroad while dragging behind them mountains of unpaid loans and bonds.
在交易方面遇到问题的并非只有中国——美国和欧洲企业也会遇到这种问题。但债务日趋成为中国企业所做交易的问题所在。分析师们表示，自2009年以来中国企业负债激增，这意味着寻求海外收购的许多中国最大型企业背负着沉重的未偿贷款和债券。
ChemChina, which is offering $44bn for Syngenta, the Swiss agrichemical giant, is a case in point. Its total debt is 9.5 times its annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda), putting it into the “highly-leveraged” category as defined by Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency.
出价440亿美元收购瑞士农业化工巨擘先正达(Syngenta)的中国化工就是一个很好的例子。该公司总债务达到息税折旧及摊销前利润(Ebitda)的9.5倍，使其属于评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)所定义的“高杠杆”类别。
This, say analysts, highlights the nature of ChemChina’s planned acquisition before even a cent has been paid. The proposed deal is not between two commercial businesses but between the Chinese state and a Swiss company.
分析师们表示，这一点在收购款项支付之前就突显出此次收购的性质。这笔拟议中的交易并不是两家商业企业之间的交易，而是中国这个国家和一家瑞士公司之间的交易。
“Bids like that by ChemChina are backed by the state,” Mr Scissors says. “There is no chance a company as heavily leveraged as this would be able to secure this level of financing on a commercial basis.
“类似于中国化工这样的报价是有国家支持的，”史剑道表示，“一家如此高杠杆的公司不可能在商业基础上争取到这种规模的融资。”
“If your financials are out of whack with every commercial company on the planet then you can call yourself commercial but you are not,” he adds.
“如果你的财务状况和世界上每一家商业公司都不一致，你能说自己是一家商业公司，但你其实不是，”他补充道。
Debt is the word
b>债台高筑
The issue with debt is by no means confined to ChemChina. The median debt multiple of the 54 Chinese companies that publish financial figures and did deals overseas last year was 5.4, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Many would be regarded as “highly leveraged”.
债务问题绝不仅限于中国化工。根据标准普尔全球市场情报(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据，54家公布财务数据并在去年进行过海外交易的中国企业的债务对Ebitda的中值倍数达到5.4。很多公司会被视为“高杠杆”。
Some companies are almost off the chart. Zoomlion, a lossmaking and partially state-owned Chinese machinery company that is bidding for US rival Terex, has a debt multiple of 83; by comparison Terex’s is 3.6. China Cosco, a state-owned shipping company, is seven times more indebted than Piraeus Port Authority in Greece, which it bought for 368.5m last month.
一些公司的债务倍数惊人。部分国有的亏损机械公司中联重科(Zoomlion)目前正以33亿美元洽购美国对手特雷克斯(Terex)。该公司的总债务为Ebitda的83倍；相比之下，特雷克斯的债务仅为Ebitda的3.6倍。国有航运公司中远控股(China Cosco Holdings)上月以3.685亿欧元收购希腊比雷埃夫斯港务局(Piraeus Port Authority)，前者的负债程度是后者的7倍。
The state-owned Cofco Corporation, which recently reached an agreement with Noble Group, the commodities trader, under which its subsidiary Cofco International would acquire a stake in Noble Agri for $750m, has debts equivalent to 52 times its ebitda.
国有的中粮集团(Cofco)近期与大宗商品贸易商来宝集团(Noble Group)达成了一项协议。根据该协议，中粮集团的子公司中粮国际(Cofco International)将以7.5亿美元收购中粮来宝(Noble Agri)股份。中粮集团的总债务为其Ebitda的52倍。
The debt question is becoming more pressing as China’s outward investment turns from a trend into a boom. Last year, Chinese companies invested an estimated $110bn abroad, up 16 per cent in 12 months, according to data from AEI and the Heritage Foundation, two US think-tanks.
随着中国的海外投资从一种趋势变为一股热潮，债务问题变得越来越紧迫。根据两家美国智库——美国企业研究所和美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)的数据，中国企业去年对海外投资估计达到1100亿美元，在12个月里增长了16%。
The Rhodium Group, a Hong Kong consultancy, estimates that the M&A portion of these outward investments is set to soar this year to $97bn, up from $60.8bn in 2015. Such numbers pale against Beijing’s longer-term ambitions: Li Keqiang, the premier, has said that China will invest $1tn over the next five years making it the second largest outward investor after the US. It is currently fourth placed.
香港的荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)估计，这些海外投资中的并购部分今年将从2015年的608亿美元攀升至970亿美元。这些数字在北京方面的长期抱负面前显得黯然失色：中国总理李克强表示，未来5年，中国将对海外投资1万亿美元，成为仅次于美国的第二大海外投资国。目前中国排在第4位。
“If we do not see reforms in China’s financial system that led to greater capital discipline among state-owned enterprises, there is a significant risk of a political backlash against Chinese overseas acquisitions,” says Thilo Hanemann, head of research at Rhodium.
“如果我们没有看到中国金融系统的改革促使国有企业展现更强的资本纪律，中国的海外收购就会面临遭遇政治反弹的显著风险，”荣鼎咨询研究主管韩其洛(Thilo Hanemann)说。
“Observing the situation in the Chinese market, recipient countries are rightly concerned about the misallocation of investment, the crowding out of healthy private sector companies and a distortion of asset prices. These concerns are becoming acute now that China has become one of the top global investors.”
“观察到中国市场的状况，投资目的地国家会很自然地担忧种种问题，包括投资分配不当、排挤健康的私营企业，以及扭曲资产价格。随着中国成为全球最大投资者之一，这些担忧正变得日渐严重。”
There is a lengthening list of deals that have gone wrong. They are not isolated incidents. About one quarter of all Chinese outbound deals, worth $270bn once construction contracts between 2005 and 2015 are included, have hit “trouble” — defined as deals that have hit lengthy delays, big cost overruns or outright failure — according to data from the two think-tanks. This is most pronounced in the resources and finance sectors.
出了问题的海外交易的列表正在变长。它们不是孤立的事件。根据上述两家智库的数据，中国所有的海外交易中，约有四分之一都遇到了“麻烦”——漫长拖延、成本大幅超支或者完全失败。如果算上2005年到2015年的建筑合同，这些交易的总价值达到2700亿美元。这种情况在资源和金融业最为突出。
The problem is stark. Many of the state-owned companies projecting Chinese corporate power overseas are so indebted that it would be difficult or impossible for them to raise a bank loan in a market economy.
问题很突出。向海外投射中国企业实力的许多国企债台高筑，如果是在市场经济下，它们会很难或者不可能申请到银行贷款。
“These companies are not viable without state funding,” says one dealmaker in London, who asked to remain anonymous. “Can they possibly be good owners for these companies they are acquiring? I think that is something the regulators are looking at.”
“这些企业没有国家资助是撑不下去的，”一名要求匿名的伦敦交易撮合者表示，“他们有没有可能成为他们收购的这些公司的好东家？我认为这是监管者关注的事情。”
Dealmaking
交易撮合
Chinese state-owned acquirers often seem motivated by non-commercial impulses, which complicates matters. By carrying out directives to “go out and buy” businesses that fit with Beijing’s industrial policy, state-owned companies and even a few of their private counterparts win kudos in the Communist party hierarchy. That helps them tap into official largesse, such as approval for expansion plans and backing from state banks and capital markets.
中国国企的收购似乎经常出于非商业性冲动，令情况更加复杂。国企甚至少数民营企业通过执行“走出去”的指示，迎合了中国政府的产业政策，赢得了各级共产党领导的赞赏。这有助于它们获得政府的大力支持，比如扩张计划获批，并获得国有银行和资本市场的支持。
“State-owned enterprises have high incentives to increase their size, and they use plans outlined by [government agencies] as weapons to expand both domestically and internationally,” says Victor Shih, professor at University of California San Diego. “The bigger they are, the more political weight and more room for rent-seeking can be enjoyed by senior management.”
美国加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校(University of California at San Diego)的史宗瀚(Victor Shih)教授表示：“国有企业在扩大规模方面有着极大动力，它们会利用（政府机构的）规划作为武器，在国内和国际上进行扩张。它们的规模越大，国企高管们获得的政治影响力和寻租空间也就越大。”
Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California, raises a series of concerns. “People should ask whether such acquisitions are made with non-economic motives and whether China’s acquirers have the capacity to manage these large, complex and innovative firms [like Syngenta].”
美国加州克莱蒙特麦肯纳学院(Claremont McKenna College)政府学教授裴敏欣提出了一连串担忧：“人们应该问一问，这样的收购是否出于非经济动机？中国收购方有没有能力管理好这些大型、复杂和创新的企业（比如先正达）。”
With revenues of $45bn last year, ChemChina is the country’s largest chemical company. Ranked 265 on the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest companies, it employs more than 140,000 people, two-thirds inside China and is directly administered by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Sasac, however, is a relatively weak body. It plays second fiddle to the ruling Communist party’s organisation department and anti-graft watchdog which both exercise more influence over hiring and firing in state enterprises. So long as executives at Sasac-administered firms help advance core national interests, they are given operational freedom.
中国化工是中国最大化工企业，去年收入450亿美元。在全球财富500强(Fortune Global 500)榜单上排在第265位，员工逾14万人，其中三分之二在中国境内，由国务院国资委(SASAC)直接管理。但国资委是一个相对较弱的机构，地位低于执政的共产党的组织部和纪委，后两者对国企的雇佣和解雇拥有更大影响力。只要国资委下属企业的高管在帮助增进国家核心利益，他们就能获得经营自由。
Few have been more skilled at playing this game than ChemChina’s chairman, Ren Jianxin. At the other end of the SOE spectrum are smaller companies such as Zoomlion or Haier, which recently paid $5.4bn for General Electric’s appliance unit. Both have strong ties to local governments but not necessarily Beijing.
在这个游戏上，没几个人比中国化工董事长任建新更熟练了。国企行列的另一端是一些规模较小的公司，如中联重科和海尔(Haier)，海尔最近斥资54亿美元收购了通用电气(General Electric)的家电业务。这两家公司与当地政府关系密切，但与北京方面未必如此。
The Syngenta transaction gave ChemChina and Mr Ren a key role in the country’s overseas Food security strategy. Fitch upgraded ratings for one of the group’s biggest units on the basis that its parent was of “great strategic importance to China”. It mentioned its contribution to China’s crop protection sector, leadership in chemical material supply to national aerospace projects and its championing the speciality chemical industry.
收购先正达让中国化工和任建新在中国的海外粮食安全战略中获得了关键角色。惠誉(Fitch)提高了对中国化工旗下一家大型企业的评级，理由是其母公司对“中国具有巨大的战略重要性”。惠誉提到了中国化工对中国作物保护领域的贡献，是国家航空航天项目的主要化工原料供应商，而且是特种化工行业的领军者。
Food security
粮食安全
In addition to this eclectic mix, ChemChina also has a tyre division that last year paid 7.3bn for Italy’s Pirelli. What appears to some analysts as a sprawling conglomerate without a focus is, from its creditors’ perspective, a company that has established itself as a key player with a penchant for landing trophy assets in strategic sectors.
除了上述众多业务外，中国化工旗下还有一家轮胎企业，该公司去年斥资73亿欧元收购了意大利的倍耐力(Pirelli)。在一些分析师眼里，这是一家没有焦点的庞大企业集团，但从其债权人的视角看，该公司善于在战略行业斩获令人瞩目的资产，在这方面确立了自己的关键地位。
“Chinese overseas projects are meant to elevate the country’s international reputation,” says Gilliam Hamilton, China research analyst at NSBO. “The government, and by extension SOEs, therefore prefer large, headline-grabbing mega-projects such as rail lines in Thailand, in South America and the Syngenta deal to smaller deals.”
NSBO中国研究分析师吉列姆汉密尔顿(Gilliam Hamilton)说：“中国的海外项目是为了提升本国的国际声誉。因此相对于规模较小的交易，中国政府及相关国企更喜欢抢眼的大型项目，比如在泰国、南美洲的铁路线，以及先正达这样的交易。”
Consequently it is not just Chinese state banks that are happy to lend to companies such as ChemChina, but large western ones too. Implicit state backing for ChemChina and other SOEs’ debt, as noted by Fitch last year, reduces their perceived credit risk to lenders.
这一切的结果是，不仅中国的国有银行乐于贷款给中国化工等企业，连西方的大型银行也如此。惠誉在去年指出，中国化工和其他国企债务隐含的国家支持，降低了它们在贷款机构眼里的信用风险。
To secure its agreement with Syngenta, ChemChina received $30bn in acquisition financing from China’s Citic Securities and $20bn from HSBC. It then plans to sell equity stakes in Syngenta and issue long-term debt -— bankers working with the company say they are being flooded with requests to participate in the financing.
为确保与先正达达成协议，中国化工获得了中信证券(Citic Securities) 300亿美元的收购融资，以及汇丰银行(HSBC)的200亿美元。中国化工还计划出售先正达的股权，并发行长期债务。与中国化工合作的银行家表示，他们接到了希望参与融资的大量请求。
What is music to the ears of ChemChina’s creditors can sound like alarm bells in Washington.
中国化工债权人耳中的音乐，在华盛顿听上去可能更像是警钟。
“China has systematically blocked regulatory approvals of foreign-developed biotech seeds, resulting in billions of dollars in losses for companies like Dow, DuPont, Monsanto and Syngenta,” says one US executive who tracks China deals closely. “[China] has said explicitly that foreign companies will not dominate China’s seed market. Now you have a Chinese SOE acquiring one of those foreign companies.”
一位密切跟踪中国交易的美国高管表示：“中国系统化地阻止监管部门批准国外研制的生物技术种子，导致陶氏化学(Dow)、杜邦(DuPont)、孟山都(Monsanto)和先正达等公司损失数十亿美元。中国已明确表示，外国公司不会主导中国种子市场。现在却恰恰有一家中国国有企业收购了这些外国公司中的一家。”
The executive suspects that if the ChemChina deal is completed, “Syngenta’s seeds will ultimately receive preferential regulatory approval by Chinese authorities, further undermining the fortunes of Dow, Dupont, Monsanto and Bayer.”
这名高管怀疑中国化工最终能否完成这笔交易：“先正达的种子最终将获得中国监管机构的优先批准，进一步破坏陶氏、杜邦、孟山都和拜耳(Bayer)的商机。”
In Switzerland few such concerns have been raised about China Inc snapping up a Swiss national champion. Some argue the risk of job losses and other disruption would have been a greater had the company been bought by one of its international peers, such as Monsanto.
在瑞士，很少有人对中国企业收购该国的一家国家冠军企业提出此类担忧。一些人辩称，如果这家公司是被孟山都之类的国际同业收购，裁员和其他干扰的风险将会更大。
Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss president, pronounced ChemChina’s offer “a good deal”. Last year, Italian politicians and workers broadly welcomed Mr Ren’s purchase of Pirelli for the same reason.
瑞士总统约翰施耐德-安曼(Johann Schneider-Ammann)称，中国化工的报价是“一笔划算的交易”。去年意大利的政治人士和工人们出于同样的原因普遍欢迎任建新拍板收购倍耐力。
Still, Chinese bidders have miscalculated. Last month, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US blocked a seemingly innocuous $3.1bn sale of a lighting unit from Philips, the Dutch conglomerate, to a Chinese consortium. The US body has the power to review and potentially block transactions that might harm the country’s national security. A planned $23bn bid for chipmaker Micron by Tsinghua Unigroup, the Chinese state-owned semiconductor business, never got off the ground last year, in part because it was believed the deal would hit a regulatory brick wall. With that in mind, ChemChina has said it will voluntarily submit its deal for Syngenta to Cfius for review.
话虽如此，中国竞购方还是有误判的时候。上月，美国外国投资委员会(Committee on Foreign Investment in the US)阻止了飞利浦(Philips)一笔貌似无关痛痒的交易，这家荷兰集团欲以31亿美元将照明业务出售给一个中国财团。该美国机构有权审查并阻止可能危害国家安全的交易。去年中国国有半导体企业清华紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)曾计划以230亿美元收购美国芯片制造商美光科技(Micron Technology)，结果根本未能启动，部分原因是这笔交易据信无法越过监管障碍。考虑到这一点，中国化工已经表示，将自愿向美国外国投资委员会提交先正达交易，请求审批。
“No one is going to ask many questions [about Chinese outbound deals] unless they are clearly a security risk or could be construed as such,” says one veteran China dealmaker. “Otherwise anybody should be able to buy anything they want as long as they are paying over the odds.”
一位资深的中国交易撮合者表示：“没人会（对中国对外交易）问太多问题——除非交易存在明显的安全风险，或者可能被这样认为。否则任何人都能买到他们想要的任何东西，只要他们的报价够高。”
