中国重建信心的机会 A chance for China to restore its credibility

Clear skies greeted the delegates arriving in Beijing for the last annual gathering of China’s parliament. At this year’s meeting of the National People’s Congress, the smog is thick and the economic gloom thicker. Market sentiment remains fragile, the latest data show a deepening slowdown in both industry and services, and capital flight is keeping the renminbi under pressure. A warning from Moody’s this week added to the downbeat mood: the US rating agency voiced a widespread fear that Chinese officials — previously able to engineer even the weather — may be unable to manage these strains.

一年一度的全国人大会议去年召开之时，迎接抵达北京的代表们的是晴朗的蓝天。然而在今年的人大会议召开之际，浓重的雾霾笼罩了北京，经济的阴霾更是如此。市场情绪依然脆弱，最新数据表明工业和服务业的放缓正在加深，资本外逃使人民币持续蒙受压力。穆迪(Moody’s)本周发出的警告加深了悲观情绪：这家美国评级机构说出了一种广泛的担忧情绪——此前甚至连天气都能控制的中国官员可能无力应对这些压力。

Moody’s change of stance has little practical effect. China’s fiscal buffers and reserves remain vast. However, it underlines the depth of concern at the growing burden of debt in its economy and highlights the stark choice it faces on its currency regime. Even more striking is the loss of faith in officials’ ability to juggle the competing aims of short-term stimulus, long-term reform and financial stability. Credibility appears to be draining away as rapidly as China’s foreign exchange reserves.

穆迪改变立场并没有多大的实际影响。中国依然拥有规模巨大的财政缓冲和储备。然而，此举强调了对中国经济中日益加重的债务负担的深度担忧，突显出中国在汇率制度方面面临的严酷选择。更引人注目的是人们正在丧失对中国官员的信心，怀疑他们是否有能力平衡短期刺激、长期改革和金融稳定这些相互冲突的目标。中国官员的可信度似乎和中国的外汇储备一样正在迅速流失。

Chinese officials have already acknowledged the need to communicate their policies better. However, it will take more than words to address these concerns. If capital outflows continue at their current pace, Beijing may be forced to choose within months between tighter capital controls — reversing previous reforms — and allowing a devaluation of the renminbi.

中国官员已经承认有必要更好地沟通他们的政策。然而，要解决这些令人担忧的问题，仅靠言语是不够的。如果资本外流以目前的速度继续下去，或许会迫使北京方面在数月之内作出选择：是收紧资本管制、扭转此前的改革，还是允许人民币贬值。

Capital controls, probably the lesser evil, can buy the government time, but Beijing needs to articulate a clear economic policy if it is to restore confidence and persuade wealthy Chinese to keep their money at home.

资本管制很可能是一种两害取其轻的选择，可以为政府争取到时间，但如果北京方面想要重建信心，并说服富有的中国人把资金留在国内，就需要阐述清晰的经济政策。

The NPC is a setting for the government to outline its priorities for reform. One important signal would be to set the growth target for gross domestic product at the lower end of expectations, leaving scope to embark on painful reforms that pay off only over time.

全国人大会议是政府概述其改革优先事项的场合。一个重要的信号将是设定处于预期区间低端的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标，为着手只能随时间推移产生效果的痛苦改革留出空间。

A clear commitment to curb credit growth would alleviate the biggest worry. It is primarily a matter of self-restraint, since the biggest build-up of debt has occurred in state-owned enterprises, local governments and the banks that lend in support of government initiatives.

遏制信贷增长的明确承诺将缓解最大的担忧。基本上这是一个自我约束问题，因为债务累积最严重的是国有企业、地方政府和放贷支持政府项目的银行。

Fiscal expansion is probable, but the form this takes is crucial if it is to aid a rebalancing towards services and consumption. The temptation may be to spend on traditional industrial and infrastructure projects; but the need is to focus tax breaks and spending on the services sector and on social security.

财政扩张是十分可能的，但如果财政扩张要帮助中国朝着服务业和消费进行再平衡，其所采取的形式就很关键了。在传统工业和基础设施项目上支出可能颇具诱惑力；但真正的需求是将减税和支出集中于服务业和社会保障方面。

Premier Li Keqiang has also promised a ruthless overhaul of bloated, lossmaking state-owned industrial groups — the “zombie companies” that suck up resources. It is not clear how far he will feel able to go, given the social risks of mass lay-offs; but specific, time-limited commitments would be a signal of intent.

总理李克强还承诺要坚定不移地彻底整改臃肿亏损的国有工业集团——吸走资源的“僵尸企业”。目前还不清楚，考虑到大规模下岗的社会风险，他认为能够推行到什么地步；但设定时间限制的具体承诺将能够反映出意图。

The overarching issue is that the reforms that are most pressing if China is to move to a new model for growth will inevitably be painful — even more so now that the economy is slowing. From the downsizing of state-owned enterprises to the reform of the hukou system that hobbles migrant workers, they also require the Chinese Communist party to relax its grip on society and cede a bigger role to the private sector. There is little sign that the government is willing to contemplate this. Its instinct is to reassert control — with its muffling of the outspoken tycoon Ren Zhiqiang the latest sign of clampdown. The party should not allow its reflex for control to stand in the way of the changes needed to move China to a more sustainable growth model.

如果中国要转而采用一种新的增长模式，最重要的问题是，最迫切的改革将不可避免地带来痛苦——在眼下经济正在放缓的情况下更加如此。从缩减国有企业规模到改革妨碍外来务工人员的户籍制度，这些措施也要求中国共产党放松对社会的把持，让私营企业承担更大的功能。目前没有什么迹象表明政府愿意考虑这一点。政府的本能是重申控制权——让直言不讳的大亨任志强噤声就是其进行压制的最新迹象。中国共产党不应该让寻求控制的本能阻碍能让中国转向更可持续增长模式所需的改变。