柏林袭击 难道是同情的代价?

A quote typical of Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist by education and politician by profession, goes like this: Don’t forget about the huge difference between expecting something and experiencing it.

曾受训成为物理学家、后来投身政坛的德国总理安格拉.默克尔(Angela Merkel)常说的一句话是：不要忘记预期将要发生什么事情与真正经历这件事情之间的巨大差异。

For years Germany’s security services have warned about the imminent threat of a terrorist attack.

多年来，德国的安保部门一直警告，德国面临迫在眉睫的恐怖主义袭击威胁。

They warned specifically about the danger of attacks on soft targets such as Christmas markets.

他们特别警告，圣诞集市等软目标有遭受袭击的危险。

So Germans were vaguely expecting a blow.

因此，德国人一直隐约预期会遭受一次打击。

On Monday evening, right in the centre of Berlin, they experienced it.

周一晚上，在柏林市中心，他们真正经历到了。

How will this affect them? What will this do to Ms Merkel, to the nation’s political landscape and to the cohesion of our society?

这会如何影响德国人？这会如何影响默克尔、影响德国的政治格局和我们社会的凝聚力？

Politically, the killing of 12 people in an attack that left dozens severely injured is a disaster for the government but it is even more so for Ms Merkel personally.

在政治上，一次导致12人丧生、数十人严重受伤的袭击对德国政府而言是一场灾难，但对默克尔个人而言更是如此。

She is held responsible for whatever goes wrong in the handling of the refugee crisis.

在难民危机的处理上无论出了什么问题，人们都会认为应由默克尔负责。

Her actions are polarising the country and society in a way we have not seen in decades.

她的行动以一种我们数十年未曾见过的方式让这个国家和社会两极分化。

Knowing this all too well, Marcus Pretzell, an MEP and one of the leading figures of the far-right xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD), did not bother to wait longer than an hour after the attack before announcing on Twitter: These are Merkel’s dead!

深知这一切的欧洲议会议员(MEP)、极右翼仇外政党德国新选择党(AfD)的领军人物之一马库斯.普雷策尔(Marcus Pretzell)在袭击发生刚刚一个小时的时候，就在Twitter上宣布：这些人都是默克尔害死的！

He caused immediate outrage across social media — not least because until late Tuesday it was not even clear whether the killer was a refugee at all — yet true AfD believers will praise Mr Pretzell for speaking out.

他的话立刻在社交媒体平台上引起了愤慨之情——尤其是因为，直到周二晚些时候，人们甚至还不清楚杀手是否是难民——然而，新选择党的真正信徒们会赞扬普雷策尔的直言不讳。

If the AfD party as a whole sticks to the same line then, yes, it might deter quite a number of decent middle-class voters.

如果新选择党作为一个整体都坚持这一立场，可能让相当多的体面的中产阶级选民望而却步。

On the other hand, it will strengthen the xenophobic, anti-Merkel core of that party, which will probably be big enough to carry the party over the 5 per cent threshold required for entry into the Bundestag in the federal election next autumn.

另一方面，这会壮大该党内仇外、反默克尔的核心，很可能足以让该党超过5%的得票率门槛，在明年秋天联邦选举时得以进入德国联邦议院(Bundestag)。

As well as introducing a far-right voice to the national parliament for the first time, that would complicate the business of crafting a work-able governing coalition.

除了首次让极右翼的声音进入国会以外，这还会让组建一个可运转的执政联盟变得更加困难。

Public confidence in the chancellor was first shattered when authorities largely lost control of the influx of refugees in the summer of 2015.

2015年夏天，当局基本对难民流入失去控制，这令德国民众对默克尔的信心首次破灭。

Ever since, there has been a clear correlation between her personal ratings and voters’ fear of terrorist attacks.

此后，默克尔个人的民意支持率一直与选民对恐怖主义袭击的担忧明显相关。

Moreover, Ms Merkel’s campaign for the 2017 election is set to focus on two words aimed at providing comfort in times of turmoil: security and no experiments.

此外，默克尔为2017年德国大选准备的竞选纲领，将着重于两个旨在于动荡时期提供一些慰藉的词：安全和不做实验。

This slogan was deployed successfully by her Christian Democrat (CDU) party during the cold war.

在冷战期间，默克尔所在的基督教民主联盟(CDU)曾成功地运用了这一口号。

As of today, both will be severely undermined by the Berlin attack — with no alternative at hand, either in terms of a viable candidate or in terms of strategy.

今天，这条口号和基民盟都将因此次的柏林袭击遭受重创，而基民盟手中没有备用选择——无论是有胜选实力的备用候选人，还是备用策略。

The CDU knows this very well.

基民盟深知这一点。

But even her fiercest critics within the party will not dare to revolt.

但即使是默克尔在基民盟党内最严厉的批评者，也不敢反叛。

With no viable way out, they have no choice but to suffer in silence.

没有可行的出路，他们别无选择，只能沉默忍受。

So all the chancellor can hope for is that mainstream Germans will do as they normally would: rally behind which ever government they have and remain as calm as they did, for instance, when they were struck in 2009 by the harshest economic downturn since the second world war.

因此，默克尔只能希望，主流德国人的表现能够像往常一样：支持正在台上的任何政府，像过去历次遭遇危机时（比如在2009年遭受自二战以来最严重的经济衰退时）一样保持平静。

There is one simple thing that determines what happens next for Germany and the chancellor: rationality.

决定德国和德国总理将会遭遇何种命运的是一件简单的事：理性。

Will Germans muster enough of that to see that terrorist attacks will occur no matter how many refugees a country has taken in?

德国人还能有足够的理性，想明白无论一个国家接收的难民是多是少，恐怖主义袭击都是会发生的吗？

Will they turn their backs on xenophobic anti-Muslim rhetoric, even though almost every recent attack in Europe has been launched by Muslim terrorists? And, ultimately, will a majority of Germans bravely accept the notion that nothing in the world, including compassion towards strangers, comes for free.

他们是否将拒绝仇外主义的反穆斯林论调——即便欧洲近来发生的几乎每一起袭击都是穆斯林恐怖主义者所为？还有最后一条：大多数德国人是否能够勇敢地接受这一观念，即在这个世界上，没有任何东西是免费的，包括对陌生人的同情。

No doubt Ms Merkel will give way to calls for tougher law and order policies.

毫无疑问，默克尔将向那些要求实施更严格的法律和秩序政策的呼声让步。

She will push for faster processing of asylum seekers and for more extraditions of those who are not acknowledged as refugees.

她将推动加快对寻求庇护者的处理过程，并遣送更多未被承认为难民的人。

She will also allow her party to campaign on symbolic gestures such as banning burkas from the streets and other public places.

她还将允许她所在的党在一些象征性姿态方面造势，比如禁止在街道和其他公共场所穿着burka罩袍。

This might help to calm parts of her own party.

这可能有助于让她所在的党内的一部分人冷静下来。

But she knows very well that it will not turn the tide if there are further attacks like the one in Berlin.

但她深知，如果柏林袭击这样的事件再度发生，这些举动将无力扭转局势。

At any rate, Ms Merkel will not quit her post.

无论如何，默克尔不会辞职。

She will stay in her job because she perceives stepping down as desertion.

她将继续留在任上，因为她认为，下台就是逃跑。

But any sort of guarantee against terrorist attacks is far beyond her reach.

但对恐怖主义袭击做出任何形式的担保，都远远超过她的能力。

It may yet turn out that the terrorist assault on Christmastime Berlin is the price of the German display of generosity so widely praised 18 months ago.

事实最终仍可能证明，对德国圣诞集市的恐怖袭击，是德国人展现慷慨的代价，这种慷慨在18个月前曾受到世人如此普遍的称赞。

To live with that frustrating idea will prove a test of Germany’s stiff upper lip — and the key to Ms Merkel’s political future.

接受这种令人沮丧的想法将被证明是对德国人沉着性格的考验——以及默克尔政治前途的关键。