达沃斯在谨慎乐观中闭幕

Concerns about the vulnerability of some emerging economies and gyrations in financial markets over the past few days should not dent “cautious optimism” about the global economy this year, leading central bankers and officials said on Saturday.

全球重量级的央行家和政府官员周六表示，对一些新兴经济体脆弱性的担忧以及近期金融市场的剧烈波动，应该不会挫伤人们对今年全球经济形势的“谨慎乐观”态度。

In the big closing session of the World Economic Forum in Davos, they recognised risks existed and badly run emerging markets might be vulnerable to shocks, but concluded that the outlook was brighter than it has been for many years.

在本届达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)盛大闭幕会议上，与会者承认风险的存在，认为缺乏有效管理的新兴市场很容易受到危机冲击，但他们最终得出的结论是，前景是多年来最为光明的。

Haruhiko Kuroday, the Japanese central bank governor said: “I think we can be cautiously optimistic about the global outlook.

日本央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)表示：“我觉得我们可以对全球前景持谨慎乐观态度。”

“The US economy is likely to grow by 3 per cent plus this year as well as next year.

他表示：“今明两年，美国经济增长可能会在3%以上。欧洲终于在复苏。日本也正取得重大进展。印度、中国和印尼等新兴经济体以及其他国家的经济增速，可能会继续保持在高水平，还可能会加速。”

Europe is finally recovering. Japan is also making significant progress. And emerging economies like India, China as well as Indonesia and others, their economic growth rates is likely to be maintained at high levels or likely to accelerate,” he said.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，她除了今年的全球经济复苏(recovery)充满期待外，还对另外两个“R”感到担忧。第一个是“风险”(risk)，她认为，一些旧有的风险（例如完成金融业改革的必要性）与美国缩减定量宽松政策的相关风险一样重要，此外还有针对欧元区可能陷入通缩等问题所新产生的担忧。

Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said apart from the recovery she expected this year, she was concerned about two other “Rs”. The first was “risks” where she thought some old risks such as the need to finalise financial sector reforms were as important as risks over US tapering, and new concerns such as deflation in the eurozone.

她还表示，从较长期来看，另一个让她担心的“R”是“重置”(reset)，她解释称，全球各地的货币和财政政策在回归正常之前还有很长的路要走。她补充称：“最终的重置是那些在全球各地都有必要实施的结构性改革。”

She also said that in the longer-term the other “R” was “reset”, by which she explained that monetary and fiscal policies around the world still had a long way to go before they could be classed as normal. “The final reset is those structural reforms that are necessary in all corners of the world,” she added.

在本周达沃斯年会上，政策制定者、政治人士以及商业领袖达成了这种谨慎乐观的共识，这种局面是自2007年以来历届世界经济论坛所不曾看到的。