乌克兰危机暴露俄罗斯弱点

As well as demonstrating the courage of Ukraine’s people, the one thing that the country’s political crisis of the past few weeks has made clear is the weakness of Russia. President Vladimir Putin likes to present his country as a reviving world power but it is trapped by its own dependence on oil and gas.

过去几周的乌克兰政治危机不仅展示出了乌克兰人民的勇气，也明显暴露出了俄罗斯的弱点。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)希望把自己的国家呈现为一个正在复苏的世界强国，但该国却受制于对油气的依赖。

The threats and sabre-rattling will no doubt continue. Russia may be able, and should perhaps be allowed, to keep control of the Crimea and its black sea naval base at Sevastapol – though history does suggests that current events are simply sowing the seeds of another long-running conflict there, not least with the Tatars.

威胁和武力恫吓肯定会继续。俄罗斯或许能够、也可能应该被允许控制克里米亚及其位于塞瓦斯托波尔的黑海舰队基地，不过历史确实表明，目前的事件只会为该地区另一场旷日持久的冲突播下种子，特别是与鞑靼人的冲突。

Beyond that, however, Moscow is in no position to confront Europe or even the new government in Kiev. The Ukrainians must not allow themselves to be provoked by an Emperor who has no clothes.

此外，俄罗斯政府还没有做好准备应对欧洲甚至乌克兰新政府。乌克兰不应让自己受到一个没穿衣服的“皇帝”的煽动。

Russia’s weakness is its overwhelming dependence on oil and gas export revenues. Russia exports 6m barrels of crude oil and another million barrels of oil products to Europe every day. Europe also buys a third of total Russian gas production. Moscow simply cannot afford to lose any significant proportion of that revenue. Four gas pipelines run through Ukraine. On a short-term basis Europe needs Russian energy but the dependence is entirely mutual. On a longer-term basis Europe has other options and every burst of Russian rhetoric must be encouraging European governments to prepare contingency plans. Russia has no such options.

俄罗斯的弱点在于其对油气出口收入的严重依赖。俄罗斯每天向欧洲出口600万桶原油外加100万桶石油制品。此外，俄罗斯天然气总产量的三分之一流向欧洲。俄罗斯承受不起损失其中任何一笔巨额收入。有四条天然气管道途径乌克兰。短期来看，欧洲需要俄罗斯的能源，但依赖完全是相互的。较长期而言，欧洲还有其它选择，俄罗斯方面的任何激烈言论都肯定会促使欧洲各国政府制定应急方案。俄罗斯却没有那么多选择。

Since coming to power 14 years ago, Mr Putin’s regime has been sustained by more than a decade of high oil and gas prices. The revenue has allowed the Russian government to survive and has made a small proportion of the country’s population very rich. This easy stream of income has, however, enabled the Russians to evade the need for reform and modernisation.

自从14年前上台以来，普京政府靠10多年的高油气价格得以维系。这笔收入让俄罗斯政府得以生存，并让该国一小部分人变得非常富有。然而，这种轻易获取的源源不断的收入，导致俄罗斯政府避开了必要的改革和现代化。

Beyond the energy sector the scientific and technical base of the country is weak and has failed to match the advances being made elsewhere in the world – not least in China. Too many of the brightest Russians have left the country. So, of course, has a large proportion of the wealth generated by the energy sector.

除了能源行业，俄罗斯的科学技术基础相当薄弱，而且未能跟上全球其他地区正取得的进步，特别是中国。太多最聪明的俄罗斯人离开了祖国。当然，能源行业创造的大量财富也已从俄罗斯流失。

The Russian economy is now more dependent on oil and gas than it was when Mr Putin came to power. Oil and gas account for 70 per cent of Russian exports and over 50 per cent of all state revenue.

俄罗斯经济现在对油气的依赖程度超过普京上台之时。油气占俄罗斯出口的70%，占财政总收入的逾50%。

Even if exports to Europe are maintained in the short term– as they were throughout even the toughest days of the cold war – Russia is vulnerable to developments in Europe which undermine the need for imports, especially of gas. That process is happening already. European gas demand is down by 10 per cent over the last decade and will fall further as markets such as Germany switch to renewables. Gas to gas competition is threatening old contracts and will push prices down.

即便面向欧洲的出口在短期内得以维持（就像在冷战期间最困难的日子仍得以维持那样），俄罗斯仍会受到欧洲一些发展的影响，这些发展会降低欧洲的进口需求，特别是天然气进口。这种情况已经出现了。过去10年，欧洲天然气需求下滑10%，随着德国等市场转向可再生能源，需求将进一步下滑。天然气竞争正威胁过去签订的合约，并将推低天然气价格。

Russia has huge resources – not just of oil and gas but also of shale gas and tight oil. But resources in the ground are of limited value if the market is saturated. Petroeconomies are inherently unstable precisely because they have minimal flexibility in responding to external circumstances beyond their control.

俄罗斯资源丰富，不仅拥有油气，还有页岩气和致密油。但如果市场处于饱和状态，那么地下资源的价值就有限了。石油经济学的内在不稳定性恰恰是因为，它们在应对无法控制的外部情况方面灵活度太小。

No doubt all this will reinforce Russian paranoia and could trigger some damaging responses to the loss of a country which has been part of the Russian sphere of influence for many decades. Russia cannot afford to apply energy sanctions against Ukraine and if it tries to do so the only effect will be to expose the limits of its power.

毫无疑问，这些都会加重俄罗斯的疑惧心理，而且俄罗斯也许会因为失去一个几十年来一直隶属该国势力范围之内的国家，而做出一些具有破坏性的反应。俄罗斯承受不起对乌克兰实施能源制裁，如果俄罗斯试图这样做的话，唯一的结果将是暴露其实力的局限性。

Given this reality it is important that the threats from Moscow are not misunderstood as expressions of strength. One day perhaps Russia will be reformed and emerge, if not as a great power, then as a strong and diversified economy. It looks as if we will have to wait for a new Russian leadership for that process to begin.

鉴于这一事实，这点非常重要：来自俄罗斯的威胁不应被误解为该国实力的表现。或许，俄罗斯有一天会实行改革，变成一个强大且多样性的经济体（即便不是世界强国）。看起来我们必须等待新一届俄罗斯领导人来启动这一进程。