萨科齐不是安倍第二

From a distance, it may appear that the French mainstream right is on the road to political and organisational unity with Nicolas Sarkozy’s successful return to the helm of the opposition UMP. With the left in disarray and the far right National Front not – or not yet – credible enough to win, though more than strong enough to deliver a shock to the political system, the way is open for Mr Sarkozy’s comeback at the next presidential elections, non? Are we about to witness in 2017 the French equivalent of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s return to power in Japan, with a rebranding so powerful that his name became identified with a novel economic policy?

从远处看，随着尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)重新执掌反对党——人民运动联盟(UMP)，法国右翼主流势力似乎正走在一条通向政治和组织团结的道路上。在法国左翼陷入混乱、而极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)的可信度不足以（或者说尚不足以）赢得大选（尽管该党现在已足够强大，能够对法国政治体系造成冲击）的情况下，萨科齐有可能在下次总统大选中再次获胜，不是吗？日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)重返政坛的情景是否会在2017年的法国重现？安倍晋三的“品牌再造”如此强大，以至于还有一项以他的姓氏命名的新颖经济政策。

It could happen but probably will not. Mr Sarkozy’s formidable drive remains intact and his competitors will have to contend with his ability to thrive under pressure, as he demonstrated at the peak of the global financial crisis or during Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008. Furthermore, he now has control of the UMP party machine, a major, possibly indispensable, asset.

这种情况可能会发生，但很可能不会。萨科齐那令人敬畏的进取精神还没有发生动摇，他的竞争对手将不得不应付他那种在压力之下超常发挥的能力，就像他在全球金融危机最严重时期或2008年俄罗斯向格鲁吉亚开战时期所展现的。另外，他现在控制着UMP的政党机器，这是一项重要的（甚至可能是不可或缺的）资产。

However, powerful factors, which were not at play when he first ran for and won the presidency in 2007, will get into his way. He faces a host of legal challenges. One of the most recent, the so-called Bygmalion case – after the name of an events-organising company alleged to have served as a conduit for the funding of his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2012 – represents a potentially serious threat during the run-up to 2017. (Mr Sarkozy denies any wrongdoing.)

然而，在2007年他首次参选并赢得总统大选时不存在的一些强大因素，将阻碍他的脚步。他面临着诸多法律诉讼。最新一桩是所谓的Bygmalion案，此案以一家大型活动组织公司的名字命名，该公司被控在2012年萨科齐最终失败的总统大选时充当筹款渠道，在2017年总统大选之前，此案将对他构成潜在的重大威胁。（萨科齐否认自己存在过错。）

Then there is the former president’s polarising personality, a hallmark which on balance has helped more than hurt his political career. Voters appreciated his clear-cut choices in 2007, and he nearly won in 2012 despite the adverse economic and social legacy of the financial crisis. But to overcome the challenge from Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front who is almost certain to be present in the second round of the presidential elections, the mainstream right candidate will need to convince left and centre electors to back him in the second round.

接下来是萨科齐那种导致两极分化的个性，迄今这一性格特点总的来说在更大程度上帮助（而非损害）了他的政治生涯。2007年，选民们赏识他的明确抉择，而在2012年，尽管金融危机带来种种不利的经济和社会后遗症，但他仍差一点在大选中获胜。但要应对来自国民阵线党主席马琳•勒庞（Marine Le Pen，她几乎肯定会进入第二轮大选投票）的挑战，主流右翼政党的候选人需要说服左翼和中间派选民在第二轮投票中支持他。

Opinion polls indicate that Alain Juppé would be a better bet in a second round run-off than Mr Sarkozy. The former prime minister is seen as a safe pair of hands who is respected well beyond the core conservative voter base. The former president will face an uphill struggle to win the primaries that the UMP is due to hold in 2016 to choose its candidate in the race for the Elysée Palace. The fact that a gifted but otherwise uncharismatic politician such as Bruno Le Maire, a former agriculture minister in the Sarkozy administration, managed to garner nearly 30 per cent of the UMP vote in the leadership contest, was a portent of the difficulties Mr Sarkozy will face. Mr Sarkozy’s inability to create a committee of former centre-right prime ministers shows how difficult it is for him to unite rather than divide his own party, let alone a broader electoral base.

民调显示，在第二轮决胜投票中，相对于萨科齐，法国前总理阿兰•朱佩(Alain Juppé)是一个更好的选择。朱佩被视为一位可靠人选，即使在保守派核心选民基础以外也深受尊敬。UMP将于2016年选出党内候选人角逐法国总统职位，要赢得党内初选，萨科齐将面临很大困难。曾在萨科齐任期内担任法国农业部长的布鲁诺•勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)这样有才华但缺乏领袖魅力的政治人物，在UMP党主席选举中成功收获近30%的选票，这一事实预示着萨科齐前路艰难。萨科齐无法创建一个由中右翼前任总理组成的委员会，这表明他很难团结（而非分裂）他所在的政党，更别提团结更广泛的选民了。

Finally, Mr Sarkozy’s attempted comeback embodies the crisis of trust which is at the heart of the negative mood pervading the French body politic. Largely unconstrained by a constitutionally weak parliament or by the constraints of coalition politics, the French president enjoys exceptional powers compared with other European leaders.

最后，萨科齐试图重返政坛反映出一种信任危机，这个危机处在弥漫于法国人民心中的负面情绪的核心。与其他欧洲领导人相比，法国总统基本上不受在宪法上实力弱小的议会或联合执政局限性的约束，享有较大权力。

This has undoubted attractions – but also some disadvantages. When key campaign promises are not honoured, the public reaction can be ferocious. When he won in 2007, Mr Sarkozy had a strong mandate, and arguably the political wherewithal, to engage in structural reform, including the scrapping of the 35 hour-work week. He preferred to work around the reform agenda rather than implementing it. His Socialist successor François Hollande’s perceived “betrayal” of his leftwing promises has had the same effect on the other side of the spectrum.

这一点具有毋庸置疑的吸引力，但也有一些坏处。当关键的竞选承诺未被兑现时，公众反应可能会非常激烈。2007年大选获胜时，萨科齐有着强大的民意授权和政治资本来实施结构性改革，包括废除每周35小时工作制。但他更喜欢绕着改革议程打外围战，而不是实施改革。在另一边，他的社会党继任者弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)对其左翼承诺的明显“背叛”也产生了同样的效果。

This sense of being taken for a ride is one of the causes of the rise of the National Front, an untested party which has not yet had the opportunity to betray the public’s trust. Thus, at every stage of the campaign trail, Mr Sarkozy will face the charge that he did not keep his promises when he had an opportunity to do so.

这种被忽悠感是国民阵线崛起的原因之一，该党未经考验，还没有机会背叛公众的信任。因此，在竞选的每个阶段，萨科齐都将面临这一指责：当初他有机会履行承诺时却没有这么做。

This basic lack of credibility may explain the modesty of his current reform platform: tinkering with the retirement age (raising it to 63 instead of 62), devolution of the “35 hours” issue to sectoral dialogue between trade unions and employers associations, the capping of public expenditure at 50 per cent of gross domestic product with little indication of how this would be done, and a fudge about increasing wages while lowering taxes. Sarkonomics are not with us yet.

这种基本可信度的缺乏，也许可以解释他当前的有限改革平台：微调退休年龄（从62岁提高到63岁）、将每周“35小时”工作制问题下放到工会与雇主协会之间的行业对话去解决、将公共支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例上限设在50%（但没有说明如何实施），以及提高薪资同时降低税收的含糊承诺。萨氏经济学(Sarkonomics)还没有出现。