起底亚马逊金牌服务
In December 2004, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos threw out a challenge to a small group of employees huddled in the boathouse behind his Medina, Wash. home, a sprawling 5-acre estate on the shore of Lake Washington. Find a way to expand and speed up free shipping, he told them, as a way to increase customer loyalty.
Two months after that brainstorming session, Amazon unveiled Prime. Customers who paid $79 annually would get “free” two-day delivery nationwide for an unlimited number of orders.
经过两个月的头脑风暴，亚马逊推出了金牌服务项目Prime——支付79美元年费的客户，可以在全美范围内免费获得不限次数的两天送达服务。“Two-day shipping becomes an everyday experience rather than an occasional indulgence,” Bezos wrote online in introducing the program.
在推介这个项目时，贝佐斯曾经在网络上写道：“两天送达服务将变成一种日常体验，而不是偶尔的奢侈。”
Since its launch 10 years ago, Amazon Prime has irrevocably transformed shoppers’ expectations and, in turn, spearheaded an all-out arms race for faster shipping. Meanwhile Prime has evolved far beyond its simple roots into an all-inclusive package of streaming entertainment, e-book lending and exclusive access to a growing stable of Amazon-branded products like baby wipes.
推出10年来，亚马逊Prime服务已经不可避免地改变了网购者的预期，反过来也在快递服务领域掀起了一场军备竞赛。另外，Prime也从单一的快递服务发展为包含流媒体娱乐、电子书借阅在内的一系列服务，同时Prime的用户也有机会独家享受越来越多的、冠以亚马逊品牌的商品，比如婴儿湿巾。Today, Amazon says Prime has “tens of millions of members” in the U.S., a typically opaque number from a company that hoards business metrics like state secrets. Analysts speculate there are between 40 and 50 million members worldwide.
亚马逊表示，目前Prime在美国已经拥有“几千万名会员”，对于这家总是将业务指标视为国家机密的公司，这是一个典型的模糊数字。分析师估计，Prime服务的全球会员应该在4000万到5000万之间。Whatever the case, Prime has turned out to be a crucial tool for acquiring customers for Amazon, helping it become the dominant e-commerce company it is now and a threat to all retailers. If Amazon’s cutthroat pricing reels in shoppers initially, Prime keeps them hooked.
不管怎样，Prime已经成为亚马逊招揽顾客的一个重要工具，助推亚马逊成为电商领域的一哥，也让它成为所有零售商的头号威胁。如果说亚马逊最初是靠着极具杀伤力的价格吸引了大批消费者，那么Prime就是那条将他们牢牢套住的绳索。It’s also a strategy that has cost Amazon billions of dollars. On its own, fast shipping is a costly proposition, but factor in all those extras, and Prime quickly becomes a money pit.
然而这个战略也让亚马逊损失了几十亿美元。快递本身就是一项高成本的业务，再将所有这些附加服务计算在内，Prime很快就成了一个永远也填不满的钱坑。The sales pitch for shoppers to join the program is compelling. Everyone from shopaholics to families who need to regularly stock up on clothes, books and gadgets can do so without worrying about how much all those orders cost to ship.
Prime服务的营销说辞令消费者难以抗拒。不管是天生购物狂，还是需要经常网购衣服、书籍和其他用具的普通家庭，在加入Prime后，他们就可以尽情网购，完全不必担心快递费用的问题。Amazon, in turn, gets loyal return customers. It also gets a more predictable and steady stream of revenue by selling those memberships much like Costco, the warehouse retailer.
反过来，这也让亚马逊赢得了一批忠实的回头客。另外，通过像好市多超市一样收取年费，它也获得了一笔具有可预测性和稳定性的现金流。“We really wanted to make it easy for customers — the idea of, ‘make the decision once, and then for the year, you don’t have to think about it,” says Greg Greeley, Amazon Prime’s vice president and one of the executives who attended that meeting in Bezos’ boathouse alongside Jeff Wilke, then senior vice president of customer service, and Chief Financial Officer Tom Szkutak.
亚马逊Prime服务的副总裁格雷格o格里利表示：“我们想把它做得便于顾客使用——也就是顾客只要一次做出选择，然后整整一年就不必再为快递而费神。”格里列和时任客户服务部高级副总裁杰夫o维尔克、财务总监汤姆o斯库塔克都参加了当年的“船屋会议”。Before Prime, most packages took a week or more to get from door-to-door. Anyone who wanted their orders quickly would have to pay FedEx or UPS big bucks or just have to wait. In some cases, that meant customers would end up visiting a local Wal-Mart or Target instead.
在Prime服务推出之前，大多数快递包裹可能要一周以上才能送到。如果想让你的包裹早点送到，就得多花点钱寄联邦快递或UPS，否则只能耐心等候。这意味着很多不愿等太久的顾客最终会放弃网购，转而光顾当地的沃尔玛超市或塔吉特百货。At the time, Amazon wasn’t exactly the big bruiser in e-commerce that it is now. Yes, it was big. But it still faced stiff competition from brick and mortar retailers. Executives also worried intensely about eBay. Although its auction business was already in decline, eBay had proven Amazon’s fiercest competition since the late 1990s, when Amazon began branching out beyond books into sales of music, electronics and toys.
那时的亚马逊还并未成长为电商业的巨擎。没错，它的规模当时已经足够庞大，但它仍然面临着实体零售商的巨大竞争压力。亚马逊的高管也非常担心来自于eBay的竞争。虽然eBay的竞拍业务已经开始萎缩，但是从90年代末，也就是亚马逊从书籍进军音乐、电器和玩具等领域时开始，eBay就一直是亚马逊最大的竞争对手。With Prime, Amazon did what it does best — it expanded quickly and aggressively. Over the last 10 years, the number of available items through Prime grew from 1 million to 20 million. Prime also pushed into international markets: first to Japan, the UK and Germany, then France, Italy and Canada.
推出Prime服务后，亚马逊可谓如虎添翼，它开始急剧扩张，势不可挡。过去10年间，可通过Prime订购的商品从100万种增长到了2000万种。Prime还积极进军国际市场，先是登陆日本、英国和德国，然后又挺进法国、意大利和加拿大。In 2011, Amazon added a Netflix-like video streaming service to the Prime package. Instant Video, as it was called then, rolled out with 5,000 movies and TV episodes, just a fraction of Netflix’s catalog at the time. It was a move that surprised some pundits, who said it seemed like too much of a detour.
2011年，亚马逊又为Prime添加了一项类似于奈飞（Netflix）的视频流媒体服务项目，命名为Instant Video。和这项服务一同推出的，还有5000部电影和电视剧集，当时这个规模只及得上奈飞的一个零头。此举令一些权威人士感到吃惊，认为亚马逊是在走弯路。But Amazon’s Greeley argues that shipping and video streaming make sense together. If Prime members liked what they saw on Instant Video, they might buy digital movies and television shows à la carte, and in turn, remain loyal shoppers, further fueling Amazon’s bottom line.
不过亚马逊的格里利认为，快递与视频流媒体服务并不冲突。如果Prime会员喜欢Instant Video提供的内容，他们可能就会按需购买数字电影和电视剧，反过来也有利于维持用户忠诚度，从而进一步促进亚马逊的业绩。That’s exactly what happened, according to Greeley. From 2011 to 2014, the number of Prime’s subscribers soared, which Amazon largely attributes to the allure of video streaming.
格里利表示，事情的发展正如同他们所料。从2011年到2014年，Prime的用户订阅数不断飙升，亚马逊认为，这主要归功于流媒体视频服务的吸引力。Instant Video now has a catalog of 40,000-plus TV shows and movies from licensing deals with distributors such as Viacom and HBO. It also has a library from LoveFilm, a European DVD and movie streaming business that Amazon scooped up for nearly $317 million in 2008.
现在，通过与维亚康姆和HBO等发行商合作，Instant Video已经拥有4万多部电影和电视剧。它还有欧洲DVD与流媒体公司LoveFilm提供的片库资源，亚马逊于2008年以近3.17亿美元的价格将其收购。Hoping to make Prime Instant Video more compelling, Amazon began developing its own shows. In late 2010, it formed Amazon Studios, a Hollywood production arm that produces series and films from scripts submitted by the public through its website. Studios has produced just three pilots from that pipeline. Its biggest hits have been more standard Hollywood fare. The dark family comedy Transparent, with Arrested Development actor Jeffrey Tambor as a transgender parent, received two Golden Globe awards this year for best TV series and best actor.
为了让Prime Instant Video更有吸引力，亚马逊甚至还开始自制电视剧。2010年年末成立的亚马逊工作室致力于把公众通过亚马逊网站提交的剧本改编成影视剧。通过该渠道，亚马逊工作室已经制作了三部试播剧。其中最成功的是黑色家庭喜剧《透明家庭》，由《发展受阻》的男演员杰弗里o塔伯扮演一位变性父亲。该剧在今年荣获两项金球奖（最佳电视剧和最佳男演员）。Amazon would not say how many Prime members use its video streaming service. But according to a report from Sandvine, a company that makes networking equipment for Internet providers, Prime Instant Video remains a distant second to Netflix but continues to grow. From March 2013 to September 2014, its share of Internet traffic in North America during peak hours of 7 p.m. to 11 p.m more than doubled from 1.27% to 2.6%. That still pales in comparison to Netflix, which accounted for over one-third of web traffic during the same period.
亚马逊不愿透露有多少Prime会员使用了它的流媒体视频服务。但根据网络设备公司Sandvine发布的一份报告，Prime Instant Video的市场份额还远远赶不上流媒体视频霸主奈飞公司，不过它一直在成长。从2013年3月到2014年9月，它在北美高峰时段（晚7点到11点）的网络流量份额翻倍，从1.27%上涨到了2.6%。这与奈飞相比仍然相形见绌，后者同一时段的网络流量份额达到了三分之一以上。“I think we could have moved more quickly to provide even better TV shows and movies,” admits Michael Paull, a former Sony Music executive who now leads Amazon’s digital video efforts.
索尼音乐前高管、现任亚马逊数字视频业务负责人的迈克尔o波尔也承认：“我认为，我们本来可以行动得更快，制作出更好的电视剧和电影。”Which is why Amazon funneled $1.3 billion into Prime Instant Video in 2014. In January, the company followed up by saying it would produce 12 movies this year and signed Woody Allen to direct his first TV series exclusively for Prime Instant Video in 2016.
有鉴于此，亚马逊在2014年向Prime Instant Video投资13亿美元。今年1月，亚马逊声称今年将开拍12部电影，另外亚马逊已经签下了伍迪o艾伦，这位电影界的传奇人物将执导他的第一部电视剧，该剧将于2016年在Prime Instant Video上独家播放。Amazon sweetened the pot for Prime users in other areas, too. Members get access to a digital library of over 600,000 e-books for no additional cost, unlimited photo storage and a music streaming service that rivals the Swedish startup Spotify. In November, Amazon released its first original album on the service, a 43-track digital compilation of holiday songs.
亚马逊还在其它方面给Prime的用户提供了优惠，比如会员可以免费阅读60多万册电子书，可以享受无限的照片存储空间，还可以享受一项堪比瑞典Spotify公司水准的音乐流服务。去年11月，亚马逊还在Prime上推出了它的首张原创唱片——一张由43首假日歌曲组成的合集。In another new twist for Prime, Amazon introduced a line of household products in December. For now, the options are limited to just baby wipes. A line of diapers was recently pulled from sale after customers complained about their design. The idea is to push products that people buy repeatedly and are therefore all the more attractive with free shipping.
除此以外，亚马逊还于去年12月推出了一系列家居用品。目前用户能够选择的只有婴儿湿巾。原本亚马逊还推出了一款纸尿裤产品，不过上架后不久，由于不少顾客吐槽它的设计，它最终又被撤了下来。亚马逊之所以推出这些人们需要重复购买的产品，就是要让它的免费快递服务看起来更有吸引力。“What distinguishes Mom members is that they are amongst the most active Prime customers — they are very engaged,” said Doug Herrington, vice president of Amazon Consumables, a business group that encompasses the groceries, health & beauty, pets and baby product areas.
亚马逊消费品业务部的副总裁道格o赫林顿指出：“‘妈妈会员’最大的特点，就是她们是最活跃的Prime用户之一，参与度非常高。”亚马逊的消费品业务部主要经营食品杂货、保健美容、宠物和婴儿用品。Because Amazon does not typically disclose data about Prime, it’s unclear how frequently shoppers use the service. But what is clear is that Prime members spend significantly more than more casual Amazon shoppers, according to RBC Capital Markets. Prime members said they spent an average of $538 annually with Amazon, far more than the $320 by non-Prime members.
由于亚马逊一般不透露与Prime有关的数据，我们无法确切地知道用户使用该服务的频率究竟有多高。不过有一点是明显的：加拿大皇家资本市场公司指出，Prime会员花在亚马逊网站上的时间要明显多于非Prime会员。Prime会员表示，他们在亚马逊的年均购物花费为538美元，远远高于非Prime会员的320美元。Also nearly certain: Prime costs Amazon dearly. Greeley declined to disclose specifics, but he suggested as much in an interview. “When you look back, the program was launched in 2005 at $79,” he said. “You factor in just simple inflation, transportation and fuel costs, the price would be over $100 today, in just 2005 dollars.” Translation: Prime doesn’t pay for itself.
此外，几乎可以肯定的是，Prime也让亚马逊花了不少钱。格里利没有披露任何细节，不过他在一次采访中说过这样一番话：“如果你回溯一下，2005年这项服务推出时，它的年费是79美元。现在算上通胀、交通和油费成本，哪怕用2005年的汇率计算，怎么着也应该在100美元以上了。”言外之意就是Prime不赚钱。Indeed, Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru estimates that Amazon loses at least $1 billion annually on Prime-related shipping expenses. It’s a staggering cost that pushed Amazon to hike the price for Prime by $20 to $99 in April.
Forrester公司分析师苏查里塔o穆尔普鲁预测称，与Prime相关的递送费用每年至少让亚马逊损失10亿美元。正是由于这一惊人成本，迫使亚马逊于去年4月将Prime的年费上调至99美元。“On the one hand, Prime adds to their bottom line, but it’s like a leech that sucks their blood,” says Mulpuru. “When they throw in things like lending library and streaming, it just gets more and more expensive for them.”
“另一方面，Prime对亚马逊的业绩是有贡献的，但它也像水蛭一样吸着亚马逊的血。”穆尔普鲁说：“电子书库和流媒体服务等项目的注入，使Prime的成本变得越来越高。”If Amazon has been consistent in the two decades or so since Bezos founded it in his Bellevue, Wash. garage, it’s that the company is ready to accept razor-thin profit margins — or outright losses, in some cases — to fuel rapid growth. And until last year, many investors seemed perfectly happy with that strategy.
自从大约20年前，贝佐斯在华盛顿州贝尔维尤市的一间车库里创建亚马逊以来，如果说这家公司有一项持续坚持的策略，那就是为了快速增长，它愿意接受极其稀薄的利润率——或者说愿意接受一些业务的持续亏损。不过一直到去年，很多投资者似乎还是非常满意亚马逊的战略。But 2014 proved to be challenging for Amazon. Growth of Web Services, Amazon’s data center business, slowed for the first time since it opened in 2006. And the company’s first smartphone, the Fire Phone, quickly flopped because of its high price and a crowded market. Shortly after introducing the phone, Amazon wrote off $170 million in losses, of which nearly half came from unsold phones collecting dust somewhere. Amazon shares tumbled over 23% for the year, as a result.
但事实证明，2014年是很有挑战的一年。亚马逊的网络服务和数据中心业务出现了2006年推出以来的首次放缓。此外，亚马逊的首款智能手机Fire Phone也由于定价过高和市场过于拥挤而迅速失败。在推出Fire Phone不久之后，亚马逊就损失了1.7亿美元，其中近半亏损来自于那些卖不出去的Fire Phone手机。造成的结果就是，亚马逊的股价在去年大跌23%。There are also questions about just how many people pay for Prime. According to a Forrester Research survey of Prime users, about one-third of respondents reported they were currently using Prime via 30-day free trials. The findings open the door to criticism that the numbers are inflated. But Greeley dismisses any such suggestion, and says, if anything, he wished Amazon had offered free trials to shoppers sooner.
也有人质疑究竟有多少人愿意为Prime付费。Forrester Research公司针对Prime用户的一项调查显示，约有三分之一的受访者表示，他们正在利用Prime服务的30天的免费试用期。基于这项研究结果，一些人批评Prime的用户数据存在注水之嫌。不过格里利并不认可这种看法，只是表示他希望亚马逊更早地为购物者提供免费试用Prime的机会。“One of our learnings, giving access to our customers to a 30-day free trial and basically letting them sample the buffet before they pay for it, has been a really good way for customers to learn about Prime,” he said.
他表示：“我们了解到的情况是，给予用户30天的免费试用机会，让他们体验Prime的全套服务，一直是让顾客了解Prime的好办法。”Competition among retailers to build customer loyalty through shipping programs is intense. For example, ShopRunner, a startup that offers two-day delivery from partner retailers like Brooks Brothers and Toys R Us, charges $8.95 a month.
除了亚马逊，其他零售商为了提高客户忠诚度，也在争先恐后地围绕快递业务下工夫。比如，初创公司ShopRunner已经开始为布鲁克斯兄弟和玩具反斗城等零售商合作伙伴提供2天到货的速递服务，月费仅为8.95美元。Then there are services like Google Express and Postmates, which aggressively push same-day delivery. For a small fee, couriers pick up your orders from bricks and mortar stores and deliver them to your doorstep in as little as one hour. (Google Express also offers a Prime-like annual membership.)
还有一些服务，比如Google Express和Postmates，也在积极推动当日送达业务。只需要缴纳一小笔费用，就会有送货员从实体店取走你订购的货物，送到你的家门口，从下单到收货最快只需要一个小时。（Google Express也提供类似于Prime的年会员服务。）Amazon has responded by adding same-day shipping to Prime. For an additional fee, members can request same-day shipping in 12 U.S. markets and one-hour delivery in New York City (more cities are planned later this year). And if Bezos is to be believed, orders could one day arrive even sooner — 30 minutes or less — via drone if they clear regulatory hurdles. Good luck with that.
亚马逊的回应方式，是为Prime也添加同日送达服务。只需要多缴纳一些费用，会员就可以在美国的12个城市收到当日递送的快递，在纽约市甚至可以享受到“一小时取货”（更多的城市将于今年纳入规划）。假如贝佐斯所言不虚，未来的快递可能还要不了一天——如果亚马逊的无人机计划扫清了监管障碍，从你下单到取货或许将用不了30分钟。希望它能实现吧。Greeley dismissed concerns over Prime’s profitability and Amazon’s fluctuating stock price. Believe it or not, he says he’s more focused on satisfying customers with unique Prime offerings like the digital series Transparent and adding features to services, including the unlimited photo storage service, Prime Photo. And like Bezos, he’s looking for ways to make the shipping speedier.
格里利也不太在意外界对Prime的盈利能力和亚马逊股价波动问题的担忧。他说比起这些问题，他更关注如何通过独特的Prime周边产品和服务（如电视剧《透明家庭》、无限存储空间的图片存储服务Prime Photo等）来满足顾客的需求。和贝佐斯一样，格里利也在寻找让快递变得更快的方法。Of course, such investments — the original content, the shipping experiments, the foray into Amazon-branded goods — means Prime won’t become profitable any time soon. But it is growing: in Amazon’s most recent earnings report, Bezos said the number of paying Prime members spiked 53% last year.
当然，如此大手笔的投资（原创内容、快递体验、亚马逊自有品牌商品等）意味着Prime短期内将不可能盈利。但它的收益的确在增长：在亚马逊公司最近的收益报告上，贝佐斯称Prime的付费会员人数去年增长了53%。In explaining, Greeley refers back to the letter Bezos wrote to shareholders in prelude to Amazon’s initial public offering in 1997. In it, Bezos said he would work on building long-term shareholder value through big bets and innovation.
为了解释这些投资，格里利提到了贝佐斯在1997年亚马逊IPO前写给股东的信。贝佐斯在信中称，他将通过“巨大的赌注”和创新来打造长期的股东价值。“The beauty of Amazon’s strategy is it hasn’t changed,” Greeley. “The strategy around Prime hasn’t changed. We’re constantly innovating on behalf of our customers.” Indeed, it’s a strategy Greeley maintains will “bring long-term shareholder value.”
格里利表示：“亚马逊的战略之美并没变，围绕Prime的战略也没变。为了顾客，我们一直都在创新。”的确，正如格里利所说，它是一个“能为股东带来长期价值”的战略。Some shareholders might grumble otherwise, but Bezos himself couldn’t have said it better.
有些股东可能会有些牢骚，但贝佐斯已经说得再明确不过了。（财富中文网）
