南海问题上美中关系已至临界点了吗

Have the US and its allies in Asia reached a tipping point in their relations with China? The question posed by US China scholar, David Lampton, in a speech in Shanghai in March looks disturbingly prescient after a whirl of diplomatic and security offensives in recent weeks in the region.

美国及其亚洲盟友与中国的关系是否已经到了临界点？在亚洲近几周来上演了一连串外交和安全攻势后，美国的中国问题专家戴维•兰普顿(David Lampton)今年3月在上海发表讲话时提出的这个问题，现在看来有着惊人的预见性。

The US and Japan substantially upgraded their defence alliance in a high profile summit meeting in Washington earlier this month. Japan, in turn, held its first naval exercises with Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea. This week, the US announced (and then later denied) it would station B-1 bombers in northern Australia, also with an eye on balancing China in the region.

在本月早些时候于华盛顿举行的备受瞩目的峰会上，美国和日本实质性升级了它们的防卫同盟。日本进而在南中国海与越南和菲律宾举行了首次联合海上军演。上周，美国宣布将在澳大利亚北部部署B-1轰炸机（这条消息后来被否认），目标也是在该地区制衡中国。

Then, just in time for John Kerry’s weekend visit to Beijing, the Pentagon made it known it was contemplating limited military options in the form of naval patrols and surveillance flights in contested areas in the South China Sea to reinforce its opposition to Chinese actions.

接下来，就在美国国务卿约翰•克里(John Kerry)上周末访问北京之际，五角大楼透露它正考虑在南中国海争议地区以海上巡逻和侦察飞行形式采取有限军事行动，以强化它对中方行动的反对。

At issue is China’s “island factory”, a series of intensifying reclamation works in the South China Sea to strengthen Beijing’s control over areas claimed by numerous Asia nations.

目前人们争论的焦点是中国的“岛屿工厂”（island factory，在礁盘上填海造岛——译者注），这是指中国在南中国海开展的一连串愈演愈烈的填海工事，目的在于加强中方对亚洲多国声索的区域的控制。

The possibility of a limited but risky challenge to Chinese actions by the US military hasn’t come out of the blue. Policy heavyweights in Washington policy and defence circles have been marshalling their arguments for the US to push back against what they regard as aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea for months.

美军对中方行动发起有限但危险挑战的可能性并不是突然出现的。几个月来，华盛顿政策和防务圈子里的要人一直在汇集整理他们的论据，支持美国反击他们眼中中国在南中国海的咄咄逼人行为。

Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, of the Council on Foreign Relations, bought the debate to the surface in a report in March, which calls for the US to build up its economic, diplomatic and military position in Asia. In short, less accommodation of China and more balancing.

美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的罗伯特•布莱克威尔(Robert Blackwill)和阿什利•泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)在3月份的一份报告中将这一辩论提上了台面。该报告呼吁美国在亚洲确立经济、外交和军事地位。简而言之，对待中国要少些迁就、多些制衡。

“Because the American effort to ‘integrate’ China into the liberal international order has now generated new threats to US primacy in Asia — and could eventually result in a consequential challenge to American power globally,” the report argues, “Washington needs a new grand strategy toward China that centers on balancing the rise of Chinese power rather than continuing to assist its ascendancy.”

该报告辩称：“由于美国让中国‘融入’自由国际秩序的努力如今已对美国在亚洲的主导地位产生新的威胁、并且最终有可能对美国的全球影响力构成重大挑战，华盛顿方面需要针对中国出台新的宏大战略，核心是制衡中国影响力的上升，而不是继续助其崛起。”

An alternative set of voices who had largely prevailed in China policy in the Obama and George W. Bush administrations, and who advocated against the US adopting a more nakedly aggressive policy, are now on the back foot in Washington.

在奥巴马(Obama)和小布什(George W. Bush)政府内曾大行其道的另一种声音——即反对美国对华采取更赤裸裸的咄咄逼人政策——如今在华盛顿已落下风。