沙特准备打低油价持久战 Saudi budget lifts prospect of prolonged oil market glut

The outlook for oil prices is under renewed pressure following signals from Saudi Arabia that it is preparing for a long period of low returns and expectations that Iran will further flood the market when sanctions are lifted.

油价前景面临新的压力，因为沙特阿拉伯发出该国正在为长期低回报做准备的信号，同时各方预期伊朗在制裁解除后将向市场新增大量供应。

Analysts said plans announced by Saudi Arabia late on Monday to reduce a budget deficit of nearly $98bn through spending cuts, reforms to energy subsidies and a privatisation drive were a signal that Riyadh intends to stick with its policy of not cutting output.

分析人士称，沙特周一晚间宣布通过削减支出、改革能源补贴以及私有化举措来压低目前逼近980亿美元预算赤字的方案表明，沙特打算坚持不减产的政策。

It showed that Opec’s de facto leader is prepared to accept cheap crude prices as it seeks to put pressure on higher cost rivals such as US shale producers and waits for the market to rebalance.

这表明，石油输出国组织（OPEC，中文简称“欧佩克”）的实际领导者打算接受低廉的原油价格，以求对美国页岩油生产商等成本更高的竞争对手施压，等待市场重新达到平衡。

“They are responding to the low price regime, the duration of which has surprised,” said Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank. “Having gone this far with their pump and dump strategy they sense that victory in the shape of non-Opec production cuts is just around the corner.”

“他们正在对低价体系做出回应，该体系的持续时间迄今出乎意料，”盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)的奥勒汉森(Ole Hansen)表示，“在推行‘全力开采和倾销’战略到了这一步之后，他们感觉胜利在望，非欧佩克国家即将减产。”

Another signal that Saudi Arabia is prepared to sustain its strategy of keeping the taps open came from the chairman of Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil company, after the budget was announced.

在沙特宣布预算后，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)董事长放出了另一个表明沙特准备坚持不减产战略的信号。

“We see the market balancing sometime in 2016, we see demand ultimately exceeding supply and soaking up a lot of the excess inventory and prices in due course will respond,” said Khalid alFalih. “Saudi Arabia more than anyone else has the capacity to wait out the market until this balancing takes place.”

“我们预计市场将在2016年的某个时候达到平衡，我们预计需求最终将超过供应并吸收大量过剩库存，价格将在适当的时候做出回应，”哈立德法立赫(Khalid Falih)说，“沙特阿拉伯比其他任何人都更有能力坚持到市场平衡。”

Oil prices moved higher yesterday supported by forecasts for lower temperatures in the US and as hedge funds and other speculators moved to close bearish bets before the end of the year. Brent, the international oil marker, rose 2.5 per cent to $37.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, added 2.4 per cent to $37.68

昨日石油价格上涨，受美国降温预报的支撑，以及对冲基金和其他投机者在年底前纷纷对看跌押注进行平仓。国际油价标杆布伦特原油上涨2.5%，至每桶37.53美元，而美国油价基准西德克萨斯中质油上涨2.4%，至每桶37.68美元。

But a relentless rise in global oil and ballooning inventories has resulted in the price of Brent crude falling 35 per cent this year to its lowest levels in more than a decade.

但全球石油产量的持续上升以及飙涨的库存导致布伦特原油价格今年以来下跌35%，至10多年来的最低水平。

The market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2016 as Riyadh resists calls for production restraint and Iran, once Opec’s second-largest producer, prepares to increase output once sanctions linked to its nuclear programme are lifted. Reports that the Iran nuclear deal was on track after Tehran dispatched a shipment of more than 11 tonnes of low-enriched uranium to Russia has renewed focus on the supply glut.

由于沙特拒绝响应限制石油产量的呼吁，而欧佩克第二大产油国伊朗准备在核计划相关制裁解除后立即增产，预计市场在2016年将维持供大于求的状态。有关德黑兰方面把一批逾11吨的低浓缩铀发往俄罗斯、伊朗核协议进展顺利的报道，促使各方再度关注供应过剩问题。

“Iran is gearing up to flood the market with 500,000 barrels a day within weeks of sanctions being lifted while the ceasefire in Libya may also add extra barrels,” Mr Hansen said.

“伊朗准备在制裁解除后数周内每天将50万桶原油打入市场，而利比亚的停火还可能增加额外的原油供应，”盛宝银行的汉森表示。

Data showing weaker demand for oil products such petrol and diesel in Europe during October have also affected sentiment. “This might be the first indication that further demand gains induced by additional driving on the back of low prices is likely to be limited in 2016,” noted consultancy JBC Energy.

有关10月份欧洲成品油（如汽油和柴油）需求减弱的数据，也影响了市场情绪。“这可能是第一个迹象，表明低价引发的额外驾驶行为所带来的需求增长在2016年可能是有限的，”JBC能源咨询公司(JBC Energy)指出。