受中国经济恶化影响 国际油价创12年来新低

The continuing collapse in commodity prices pushed oil futures to new lows Monday, and analysts predicted that the slide was far from over.

周一，大宗商品价格的持续下跌致使原油期货降至新低。分析人士预测，这种下降趋势还远远没有结束。

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in 12 years; futures of West Texas intermediate crude closed at $31.41 a barrel, down 5.3 percent. Oil futures, which lost 30 percent last year, have declined every day of the year so far. Brent oil, the main international benchmark, lost 6.5 percent and closed at $31.36 a barrel.

石油价格跌至12年来的最低水平，西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货报收每桶31.41美元，下挫了5.3%。原油期货去年下跌30%，今年到目前为止每天都在下降。主要国际基准布伦特原油(Brent Crude)下滑6.5%，报收每桶31.36美元。

Last year brought a broad-based reassessment in commodities, as the global economy slowed and demand from emerging markets like China, India and Brazil waned. The slump in oil prices deepened last week on renewed concerns about the health of China's economy, which led to a rout in global markets.

去年，全球经济放缓，中国、印度和巴西等新兴市场的需求减少，大宗商品价格随之广泛受到重新评估。上周，由于中国经济状况再次引发担忧，全球市场下挫，油价下行的趋势进一步加剧。

The drop in commodities is being felt throughout the energy sector and beyond. Saudi Arabia, for instance, said last week that it was considering selling shares in its state-run oil company, Aramco. Arch Coal, one of the biggest coal producers in the United States, said Monday that it had filed for bankruptcy protection to cut its debt.

能源及其他领域感受到了大宗商品价格的下跌。例如，沙特阿拉伯在上周表示，正在考虑出售持有的国有油企沙特阿美公司(Saudi Aramco)的股票。美国煤炭巨头阿奇煤炭公司(Arch Coal)在周一表示，公司已申请破产保护，以削减债务。

Russia's main stock indexes also plummeted Monday in their first day of trading after a lengthy winter holiday, as falling oil prices also cast a pall over the country's energy-dependent economy. Oil and other commodities like natural gas and steel, which make up the bulk of Russia's exports, have fallen sharply on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

油价下降也给依赖能源的俄罗斯经济蒙上阴影，在本周一，也就是经过漫长冬季假期后的第一个交易日，俄罗斯主要股指遭到重挫。中国经济放缓引发的担忧导致石油及天然气、钢铁等俄罗斯主要的出口商品的价格大幅下降。

“Every signal that the market is getting now suggest that we are going to continue to have an oil glut for some time to come,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Iran is about to re-enter the market, demand numbers and economic indicators look relatively weak, U.S. supply is holding up in a low-price environment much better than people thought, and global inventories are growing.”

“市场目前得到的所有信号都说明，在未来一段时间，石油供应会继续过剩，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University)主任贾森·博尔多夫(Jason Bordoff)说。“伊朗正准备重新进入石油市场，而需求数据和经济指标看起来相对疲软，美国石油供应在低价环境中的表现比人们的预想好得多，全球库存量在不断增加。”

In that situation, he said, even geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which would have generally spooked energy markets, have not had an impact on the market's perception of risk. In fact, the sharp increase in tensions between the two regional powers makes it less likely they will agree to stabilize oil markets within their membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

他表示，在这种情况下，沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的地缘政治冲突并没有影响市场对风险的感知。这类冲突本来通常会令能源市场紧张。实际上，这两个地区大国之间的矛盾急剧升级，反而使得它们更不可能在石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)内部就稳定石油市场达成一致。

“In that world, there is almost every indication that you want to be bearish,” Bordoff said.

博尔多夫表示，“在那个世界中，几乎每个迹象都表明你应该看跌。”

Most analysts expect more declines before prices recover. Goldman Sachs, which had predicted that oil might reach $200 a barrel during a “superspike” before the 2008 financial crisis, forecast last year that prices might drop as low as $20 a barrel in the current downward cycle.

大多数分析人士认为在反弹之前还会进一步下跌。高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾在2008年金融危机前预测，油价可能会“暴涨”到每桶200美元。而它在去年预计，油价在目前的下行周期内会跌至每桶20美元。

Morgan Stanley also argued Monday that $20 oil was possible if the United States dollar made rapid gains. Analysts at Barclays cut their outlook for oil and copper prices. They still expect oil to rebound sometime in the second half of the year, but set an average price of $37 a barrel in 2016, down from previous forecasts of $56 to $60.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在周一也提出，如果美元迅速升值，油价达到每桶20美元是可能的。巴克莱银行(Barclays)的分析员下调了对油价与铜价的预估。他们仍然认为油价会在今年下半年的某个时候出现反弹，但把2016年油价的平均水平设为每桶37美元，低于之前预测的56至60美元。

“Recent price declines for major commodities are now greater than in any crisis of the past 30 years and speculative positioning much more negative than it was even in the depths of the financial crisis,” according to a research note by Barclays. “That suggests that although the price outlook is weaker than it was previously, the road ahead could be a very bumpy one.”

“主要大宗商品价格近期的降幅比过去30年经历的任何危机期间的降幅都要大，投机性头寸甚至比金融危机最严重的时期更消极，”巴克莱的研究报告称。“这说明虽然价格预估要低于之前，但前方的道路会很坎坷。”

At the same time, the drop in oil is pushing down gasoline prices. The average retail price fell to $1.96 a gallon, according to AAA, down from $2.14 a gallon a year ago.

与此同时，石油价格的下跌也导致汽油价格下降。根据美国汽车协会(AAA)公布的数据，汽油的平均零售价从一年前的每加仑2.14美元跌至日前的1.96美元。

Separately, coal mining companies have been struggling as demand for coal declines. The drop in energy prices and stricter environmental regulations have made natural gas a much more attractive competitor to coal in the United States.

另外，随着煤炭需求的减少，采煤公司一直在苦苦挣扎。在美国，能源价格的下降及环境监管的加强使得天然气的吸引力大幅增强，成为煤炭的有力竞争对手。

“With oil prices collapsing, renewables on the rise and coal companies going bankrupt, we are at a key inflection point in the energy transition,” said Michael E, Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. “Inflection points produce a lot of uncertainty and volatility for investors.”

“随着油价崩溃、可再生能源愈发受欢迎、煤炭公司破产，我们正处于能源转型的关键转折点，”德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校能源研究所(Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin)副主任迈克尔·E·韦伯(Michael E. Webber)说。“转折点会给投资者带来很多不确定性和波动性。”