卡梅伦邀奥巴马站台或适得其反

George Canning, the 19th-century British statesman, famously called the New World into existence “to redress the balance of the old”. David Cameron, UK prime minister, no doubt had similar hopes when he asked Barack Obama to visit the country this week barely two months before its Brexit referendum. Who better than a US president to refute the Brexiteer dream of replacing Britain’s continental ties with an anglospheric world? Who better than Mr Obama to deflate the feverish ambitions of Boris Johnson, MP and mayor of London?

19世纪英国政治家乔治•坎宁(George Canning)曾有一种著名的说法，称正在形成的新世界“令旧世界进入新的平衡”。英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)在距离英国退欧公投只有两个月之际，邀请巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)本周访问英国，无疑是有类似的期待。要驳斥英国退欧派用“英语圈”取代英国与欧洲大陆之联系的梦想，还有比美国总统更合适的人选吗？要挫败国会议员、伦敦市长鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)的狂热野心，还有比奥巴马更合适的人选吗？

Alas, that is where the poetry ends. In the age of Donald Trump, Americans worry about the coarseness of their debate, but it is at least rivalled by Britain’s tradition of character assassination. Mr Obama is taking quite a risk with his visit. US presidents make a point of avoiding other democracies ahead of general elections for fear of seeming to meddle. By putting the UK’s economic and geopolitical future in question, the June 23 referendum is far more important than any ordinary election.

可惜，美好的愿望到此为止。在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)时代，美国人对他们的辩论表现出的粗俗感到担忧，但英国的人格诽谤传统的粗俗程度至少与之不相上下。奥巴马这次访问要承担相当大的风险。由于担心被视为插手干预，美国总统一贯注意避免在大选前访问其他民主国家。6月23日的英国退欧公投，令英国的经济和地缘政治未来打上了问号，这使得这一公投的重要性远远超过了任何普通选举。

Instead of giving a helpful tilt to Mr Cameron’s Remain campaign, Mr Obama’s intervention could backfire. Even before Mr Obama opened his mouth, Mr Johnson last week accused him of “outrageous and exorbitant hypocrisy” for wanting Britain to persist with a sovereignty-pooling arrangement the US would never contemplate. Slightly more politely, a group of pro-Brexit members of parliament last month wrote to Mr Obama urging him not to interfere. “We would certainly never think of visiting the United States and telling the US public how to vote in an election or the amendment of their constitution,” said Kate Hoey, an opposition Labour party MP.

奥巴马的干涉不但不会为卡梅伦的“留欧”运动带来帮助，还可能产生反作用。甚至在奥巴马还未开口之时，约翰逊就在上周先将批评的矛头指向了他，称他想让英国留在一种美国绝不会考虑的主权集中安排中，是“蛮横无礼、极其伪善”之举。多名支持英国退欧的英国议员则略为委婉，他们在上个月写信给奥巴马，敦促他不要干涉此事。反对党工党(Labour)议员凯特•霍伊(Kate Hoey)表示：“毫无疑问，我们绝不会考虑去美国告诉美国公众在选举或修改宪法时如何投票。”

She had a point. Yet the intensity of the prebuttals before Mr Obama’s visit betrays worries about his potential influence. Much of the Brexit case rests on the view that the UK could quickly negotiate a free trade agreement with the US. Having had to grapple with surging protectionist sentiment at home, Mr Obama is perhaps the world’s leading expert on how difficult that would be to achieve. Last year Mike Froman, the understated US trade representative, said: “We are not particularly in the market for free trade agreements with individual countries,” after he was asked about prospects for a US-UK deal. In plain English that meant there would be zero chance. Mr Obama will look for a tactful way to reinforce that point.

她说的有一定道理。然而，奥巴马访英之前对他的密集讨伐暴露出支持英国退欧的人士对奥巴马潜在影响力的担忧。很大一部分支持英国退欧的理由基于英国能够迅速与美国达成自由贸易协定的观点。然而，不得不努力应对国内高涨的保护主义情绪的奥巴马，大概是世界上最了解这有多么困难的人。去年，言语谨慎的美国贸易代表迈克•弗罗曼(Mike Froman)在被问及美英达成自由贸易协定的前景时说：“我们并没有特别寻求和单个国家达成自由贸易协定。”用直白的话来说，这意味着可能性是零。奥巴马会寻求用一种圆滑的办法来强化这一观点。

Furthermore, Mr Obama’s popularity ratings in the UK are higher than for any local politician, including Mr Johnson. They are particularly high among Britain’s millennial generation, whose high turnout would be key to defeating the pro-Brexit case in June. UK polls show younger voters are more comfortable with the EU than older ones. Mr Obama will hold a town hall event in London with young voters. He will have dinner with royals William and Kate and lunch with William’s grandmother, the Queen.

此外，奥巴马在英国的人气高于任何本土政治人士，包括约翰逊。奥巴马在英国千禧一代中的人气尤其高，他们的高投票率将是在6月挫败英国退欧派的关键。英国民调结果显示，比起年纪较大的选民，较年轻选民更安于留在欧盟。奥巴马将在伦敦市政厅举行一场面向年轻选民的活动。他将和威廉王子和凯特王妃(royals William and Kate)共进晚餐，并与威廉王子的祖母英国女王(the Queen)共进午餐。

The latter, who turns 90 tomorrow, might give Mr Obama a crash course on how to influence British voters without appearing to do so. Shortly before the referendum on Scotland’s independence in 2014, the apolitical monarch urged Scots to “think hard” before they voted. It was clear in which direction she wished such thinking to go. The margin in favour of the status quo was wider than the polls anticipated. Mr Obama will be hoping for a similar outcome against Brexit on June 23.

明天将迎来90岁大寿的女王可能会给奥巴马上一堂关于如何不着痕迹地影响英国选民的速成课。2014年苏格兰独立公投前不久，这位不问政治的君主敦促苏格兰人在投票前“好好想想”。她所希望的思考方向很明显。结果，支持维持现状阵营的优势比民调结果预测的要大。奥巴马也将希望6月23日反对英国退欧阵营能迎来类似的结果。

In spite of Mr Obama’s supposed coolness on the UK-US “special relationship”, he readily agreed to this trip as a favour to Mr Cameron. “We want to do whatever Cameron thinks will help him to win this vote,” says Lou Susman, Mr Obama’s first ambassador to Britain, and an informal adviser. “Of course, it is entirely up to the British people which way they vote.” Naturally, that goes without saying.

尽管奥巴马应该在英美“特殊关系”方面表现冷淡，但他仍痛快地答应为帮卡梅伦一个忙而访英。“我们愿意做任何卡梅伦认为将帮助他赢得这次投票的事情，”美国驻英国大使、奥巴马的非正式顾问路易斯•萨斯曼(Louis Susman)说，“当然，投哪一边完全取决于英国民众自己。”自然，那是不言而喻的。