社会作家不应该向亚马逊集团宣战

Agroup of leading authors, including Donna Tartt, Stephen King and Malcolm Gladwell, has attempted to intervene in the dispute between publisher Hachette and retailing behemoth Amazon. Observers of the music industry are familiar with this tactic; prominent musicians are persuaded that the interests of music publishers are aligned with their own. The reality is very different.

包括唐娜•塔特(Donna Tartt)、斯蒂芬•金(Stephen King)以及马尔科姆•格拉德威尔(Malcolm Gladwell)在内的一批知名作家试图干涉出版商阿歇特(Hachette)和零售业巨头亚马逊(Amazon)之间的争端。音乐产业的观察者对这套战术很熟悉，那些知名的音乐家们相信自己与音乐出版商的利益一致。然而实情非常不同。

Music and print media are among the industries most fundamentally changed by digitisation. When Amazon likens the change to the arrival of the paperback, it makes a grave underestimation; the invention of printing is a better analogy. Costs and barriers to entry in distribution have almost disappeared.

音乐和印刷媒体都是被数字化从根本上改变的行业。亚马逊把这种改变比作平装本的出现，实在是严重低估了数字化的影响；与印刷术的发明相提并论还更贴切些。分销的成本和进入壁垒几乎已荡然无存。

Established companies in all industries are inhibited in their response to radical change by vested interests inherent in their existing business models. Music publishers tried to block new technologies, and were marginalised by better-run businesses:

各行各业的公司在回应巨变时，都难免受到现有商业模式中的既得利益的桎梏。音乐出版商曾企图阻止新技术，结果被苹果(Apple)、沃尔玛(Walmart)和Spotify等运营更好的企业边缘化。图书出版商最初在回应电子书时，最初拿出了纸质书的拙劣复制品。当这些书销量不佳时，他们便退而维护现状。

Apple, Walmart and Spotify. Book publishers responded initially with dismal reproductions on screen of their printed books. When these failed to sell, they retired into protecting the status quo.

改变游戏规则的是硬件制造商，他们生产出了阅读体验可与纸质媲美的显示屏。很快这些显示屏的阅读体验将更好。而亚马逊的配送能力使其能够挑战出版商的顽固反抗。

The game changer was the ability of hardware manufacturers to produce displays that provide a reading experience almost as pleasant as the printed page. Soon they will be better. Amazon’s distribution capability enabled it to challenge publishers’ recalcitrance.

图书出版商的地位一直建立在对分销渠道的准入控制之上。有抱负的作者一贯以“发表作品”为理想。图书出版公司除了决定要出版哪本图书，传统上还提供一系列配套服务：对底层文学事业的鉴定、支持和资助，手稿的编辑，终稿作品的营销和推广。

The role of the book publisher has been based on control of access to channels of distribution. The ambition of the aspirant author has always been to “get published”. Along with the decision as to what should be published, the company has traditionally provided a collection of associated services: identification, support and finance of the underlying literary project, editing of the draft manuscript, and marketing and promotion of the finished work.

但这些主宰着出版业的大集团被一群爱钱胜过爱书的人经营着。为了最大化分销渠道准入控制环节的营收，出版商削减了配套服务。如今的畅销书排行榜上充斥着以往畅销作品的效仿之作：足球运动员回忆录、名厨菜谱、吸血鬼小说和以女性为目标群体的情色文学。

But the large conglomerates that have come to dominate publishing are run by people who love money more than they love books. These support activities have been cut back in the interest of maximising the revenue, from control of access to distribution. Today’s bestseller lists are filled with imitations of books that have already been successful; footballer’s memoirs, celebrity chefs, vampires and female-oriented erotic literature.

这样的出版商不适合新环境。我不知道纸质书在20年后的存在程度。但电子书的销量足以说明，阿歇特或企鹅兰登书屋(Penguin Random House)这样的公司已不再是出版图书的决定性因素。企鹅兰登部分股权为培生集团(Pearson)持有，该集团还拥有英国《金融时报》。

Such publishers are ill-placed for the new environment. I do not know the extent to which the printed book will remain extant in two decades. But enough ebooks are already being sold to signify that being published by a company such as Hachette or Penguin Random House (part-owned by Pearson, which also owns the Financial Times) is no longer critical.

影响一本书成与败的是见解的高低、基础项目的执行力、编辑的水平以及营销与推广的效果。

What matters to the success or failure of a book is the quality of conception and execution of the underlying project, the competence of the editing, and the effectiveness of marketing and promotion.

作者自行出版的新书大多通不过上述考验，尤其是它们往往明显缺乏称职的编辑。但这种情况现在同样存在于老牌出版商出品的许多图书。

Most new self-published titles fail these tests; in particular, the lack of a competent editor is often obvious. But this is also true of many titles now published by established houses.

某些现有的出版商靠着为作者提供配套服务的优势还能兴旺下去。但大多数出版商将开始走下坡路。精明且懂行的作家们（往往在代理人的帮助下）将能够利用比传统版税模式高得多的销售分成，来购买编辑和营销技能。音乐界的教训之一是，营收的天平已从发行权转向现场演出和商品化。类似音乐界在某种程度上已经发生的变化，对作家的大笔预付款项将被针对未来营收流的证券化取而代之。图书项目有可能获得风投资金，或许会从大学教科书和从业者手册开始。

Some existing publishers will thrive on the basis of their strengths in author support services. But most will not. Savvy and well-advised authors, often helped by agents, will be able to buy editing and marketing skills with the receipts from a much larger share of the sales proceeds than the traditional royalty model allows. One of the lessons of the new world of music is that the balance of revenues has shifted from publishing rights to live performance and merchandising. The blockbuster advance for authors will be replaced, as has to some degree happened in music, by securitisation of future revenue streams. Venture capital funding of book projects – perhaps starting with university textbooks and practitioner handbooks – is possible.

读者会怀念传统书店，还有图书馆的舒适氛围。我们对技术过时的蒸汽机车和烛光晚餐有种怀旧情感。改变极少是不折不扣的好事。但签署公开信的作者错过了图书业发展最重大的商业后果：当今的作者置身于他/她应有的地位：负责。